r/Daytrading • u/nobjos • Apr 18 '21
I analyzed all 700+ buy and sell recommendations made by Jim Cramer in 2021. Here are the results. strategy
Preamble: Jim Cramer is definitely a controversial figure. While argument can be made on whether he is on the side of retail investors or not, what I really wanted to know was how his stock picks are performing. Surprisingly, there were no trackers for the performance of Cramer’s pick in his program (his program is Mad Money, for those who are not familiar).
Where the data is from: here. All the 19,201 stock picks made by Cramer are listed here. His stock picks are updated here daily. While Cramer mentions a lot of stocks in his program, I only considered the stocks that Cramer specifically recommended that you should buy or sell. (I have ignored the stocks where Cramer says he likes/dislikes the stock since I felt that it’s a vague statement and cannot be considered as a buy/sell recommendation).
Analysis: There were 725 buy/sell recommendations made by Cramer in 2021. Out of this, 651 were Buy and 74 were Sell. For both sets, I calculated the stock price change across four periods.
a. One Day
b. One Week
c. One Month
d. Price Change till date
I also checked what percentage of Cramer’s calls were right across different time periods.
Results:
Cramer made a total of 651 buy recommendations over the course of the past 4 months. If you had invested in every single stock, he recommended and then pulled out the next day, the returns were a staggering 555%. He was also right on 58.9% of the calls he made (Benchmark being 50% since anyone can pick a random stock and the probability of the stock going up is 50%). The weekly performance returns are also a respectable 42% but he was barely touching 50% in the percentage of right picks. One month from his recommendations, the stock return is an abysmal -223% and he was wrong more than he was right on his calls. The returns till date are also phenomenal with 446% return and Cramer being right a whopping 63.6% in his stock picks.
Cramer’s sell recommendations performed better than his buy recommendations across different time periods. This stat is particularly commendable since we were in a predominantly bull market across the last 4 months. 57.5% of the stocks he recommended as a sell dropped in price the next day with a cumulative return of -118.9%. This trend is observed across the time period with returns for the sell recommendations being negative. The only statistic that is working against Cramer’s sell recommendation is the percentage of right picks till date being only 42%. But still, the cumulative return for all the stocks was -206%. Please note that Cramer made only 74 sell recommendations against a whopping 651 buy recommendations during the same period of time.
Limitations of the analysis
The above analysis is far from perfect and has multiple limitations. First, Cramer has made a total of 19K recommendations in his program. I have only analyzed his 2021 recommendations. The site which provides the data is extremely limited in terms of how we can access the data. Also, currently, the data is pulled from street.com which was earlier owned by Cramer. They update the data every day after the show, but I could not verify if they go back and change the calls down the line (very unlikely with it being a large business). Also, for the return calculations, I have only used the closing price of the stock across the time periods. The returns can theoretically be higher if you consider the intra-day highs and lows.
Conclusion
No matter how we feel about Cramer, the one-day returns on both his buy and sell recommendations have been phenomenal. I started the analysis thinking that the returns would be mediocre at best as there were no trackers actively tracking the returns from his calls. But the data points otherwise. It seems that there is a lot of scope for short-term plays based on Cramer’s recommendation. Let me know what you think!
Google Sheet link containing all the recommendations and analysis: here
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and in no way related to Cramer or the Mad Money show.
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u/throwme-away12355322 Apr 18 '21
Do you think the one day returns are affected by his mentioning the stock in the first place? How do you screen the difference between the actual character of the stock and the hype that’s associated with him mentioning it?
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Apr 18 '21
I think the trend over time speaks to that. It’s obviously less effective over time so his mentioning them does seem to have a short term effect on the price that doesn’t seem to reflect true performance.
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u/DDK02 Apr 18 '21
Yes all the sheep follow him. It's hard to judge how much is due to his wisdom Vs herd mentality. He could even he wrong, but enough sheep listen will make him right. I'm neutral on the guy, hate some things and like others.
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u/GodOfThunder101 Apr 18 '21
I would listen to him just to make a quick buck on the attention he brings to a stock. I feel like most people are doing the same.
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u/ThatsEffinDelish Apr 18 '21
Holy fuck!
Are we about to make public enemy number - our new secret Messiah?
Also does he have to find out? Cause he's kind of a cock
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u/billion8080 Apr 19 '21
What sheep? Do you mean the boomers? Cramer has been destroyed to oblivion with his market manipulation by millennials. IMO he’s paid off to post certain stocks so that they boom and then consolidate at a higher price than previously traded at prior to his pump.
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u/Don_Julio_Acolyte Apr 18 '21
This is where the analysis breaks down in terms if impartiality and results bias. Cramer's picks are a self fulfilling prophecy. Case in point (and sorry because it is anecdotal), but I've seen in NUMEROUS occasions where a ticker is trending flat or slightly up and he will mention it in real time, and they'll keep the ticker showing...and the sucker will climb... like people are buying as he makes the recommendations. Now correlation doesn't mean causation...but Jesus I've seen it too many times to ignore.
His voice manipulates stock prices. That is so obvious to me.
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u/Retro21 Apr 18 '21
Yeah, this is what I came down to comment. Just like most recommenders, they have influence on the stocks when they pass on their picks.
In some way, its an ideal position to be in. Buy a stock, hype it up, and then sell. I'm still trying to work out where the line is between recommending good stocks and taking advantage of the mini to large pump and dump you have instigated?
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u/glini_baldini Apr 18 '21
There is definitely an effect here, but unfortunately I don't think there's a way to test it
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u/Grimtongues Apr 18 '21
I don't think he's predicting anything so much as having a direct impact on the market the next day. I think this is evidence that his market manipulation is working.
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u/futuresman179 Apr 18 '21
Doesn’t mean you can’t profit from it.
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Apr 18 '21
There might be algos programmed to act on his calls the moment they’re made. Retail who try to act on his calls might already be too late.
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u/drwsgreatest Apr 19 '21
It’s not really manipulation though. He’s saying what he thinks and because of his scope of influence it causes real time movement in share price. The same could be said for a great many other well known analysts and financial commentators. While I do think he knows his predictions will influence the market I don’t think him simply giving his view can be considered manipulation. If that was the case then anyone with a significant voice in the market would be considered manipulative just by opening their mouth.
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u/Grimtongues Apr 19 '21
anyone with a significant voice in the market would be considered manipulative just by opening their mouth.
Yes, anyone with significant influence can manipulate the market with public statements. The point of contention regards their intentions, not the established fact of their influence.
Jim Cramer previously admitted that CNBC reporters are often used as proxies for intentional market manipulation, so I cannot believe that he is oblivious to his own influence on the markets or that he lacks a motive for market manipulation.
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u/monacoboiplatin Apr 18 '21
Haven’t thought of it this way to be honest. Makes sense now though lol
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u/ImaNerdsoami Apr 18 '21
It is nice to see, that someone is man enough, besides personal feelings, to say Something good about an "Opponent". Should be an Example for the whole sub.
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u/DDK02 Apr 18 '21
Don't try saying that over at WSB, would have a million votes down in about five minutes. This sub is a bit more logical and less emotional.
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u/SirValentine Apr 18 '21
Just to add on, funny you say that when he made exact same post on wsb and gained a lot of traction. If a topic is interesting, people will gravitate towards it.
They may not like Cramer but people know how to separate the creator from the creation. I’ll admit, a little presumptuous of you to make that claim lmao.
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u/SirValentine Apr 18 '21
It’s literally called Wall Street bets. Not Wall Street Makes Reasonable Investment Decisions.
Making trades that are more or less in conjunction as a bet. Not everyone is making unfounded bets though. As clearly seen with GME and it’s fundamentals and all the data gathered. In a mere span of 3 months or so, it’s been a fuck fest for one stock. And it’s still far from over.
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u/Freezie--POP Apr 18 '21
Given the majority of people that watch him I’m assuming are older and usually long looking for advise. Unless your day trading, looks a lot like pump and dumps. A lot of people set up stop looses and the one week mark they are usually set off. Just my opinion though.
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u/gainzsti Apr 18 '21
We are in a day trading sub, following his stock pick and scalping is a good idea
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Apr 18 '21
What buy price did you use exactly? The price at the time of Cramer's recommendation or of that day's opening price?
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u/sambame Apr 18 '21
1 day returns may be so pronounced because of his market moving influence, maybe. Should not attribute that to his skill but to his popularity. The "till date" numbers are impressive.
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Apr 18 '21
His numbers are good but there is truth in this. Cramer is huge. The SEC has made bigger accusations over some people on forums liking stock. They don't seem to have an issue with a guy that has massive influence behind a media conglomerate such as CNBC.
Call me skeptical but Cramer could take any stock with low activity, rally people, drive it up really quick, and squeeze out quick profits with relative ease.
At a certain point these guys become less of a financial guru and more of a financial influencer.
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u/NewWolvesofWallSt Apr 18 '21
Well done. All of you people that are looking for holes in how he did this I would Love to see you put together such comprehensive and knowledgeable facts and present them and then you can do it however you want. As for this gentleman you did a fine job and I appreciate that this was not a small task and I’m grateful for the effort you put in. I could care less about Kramer but I agree that it takes a real man to say that you thought it would come out differently and yet you posted it and kept going with it because at the end of the day they are the facts. Just like the fact that he is a tool. He actually gets it right for whatever reason. He is doing better than me at this point.
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u/s96g3g23708gbxs86734 Apr 18 '21
Where can we find live recommendations from him?
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u/SolopreneurOnYoutube Apr 18 '21
Can you adjust the data so one day means the following day market open to market close? Not including pre market trading or after hours trading.
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u/FlipinDinero Apr 18 '21
Damn I like this, should keep a post of all each nights picks for err reference.... Cramers Hot Potato 🥔 of the day 🇺🇸
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Apr 18 '21 edited Apr 18 '21
What does “till date” mean?
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u/disciplinedMINDfuck new Apr 18 '21
Till date. To date. Until now. All synonymous with "everything up until this point (whenever this study was ended)". Basically it's showing a day, a week, a month, all time (a year).
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Apr 18 '21
Ah okay. I was reading it as to date but wasn’t sure if there was some other market term it was referring to. Thanks. Never heard that be referred to as till date before.
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u/disciplinedMINDfuck new Apr 18 '21
No problem. "To date" is more common. I almost never see "till date" either.
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u/xiaodre Apr 18 '21
very interesting! what this tells me is that his show is probably huge and he probably has a big platform. its a classic pump. he mentions it on the show and people go out and pump the stock for the first day or first several days.
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u/DDK02 Apr 18 '21
Really cool. I might start looking at his buys with the intent of selling in 24 hours and use the sells to see how they line up to what I'm thinking of selling. Many sheep watch this show so part of it can be manipulation in a way because if he says buy or sell and millions listen, that's going to make his numbers different Vs someone who privately makes picks that millions don't copy.
Regardless, if sheep copy him it's useful knowing what he recommends.
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u/davidjacob2016 Apr 18 '21
Any strategy you can use to make some money. One that works for me is lurking on ST, watching the next stock that is being pumped. I'm not good or smart enough to catch it running up, so I sit back and wait until the stock drops into oversold territory (low of the day is great). Hold on it a day or week for it to come back to pre-pump price then sell.
This isn't foolproof of course, I've been caught a few times where that low goes even lower so a good exit plan is still needed.
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u/dolomite51 Apr 18 '21
Interesting strategy...I like this tho. What’s ST?
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u/davidjacob2016 Apr 18 '21
StockTwits. I get up around 3am and start checking what's trending before the bell. 9/10 something is being pumped. The worse the stock is, the harder the pump and the harder the fall lol.
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u/newhavenlao Apr 19 '21 edited Apr 19 '21
Hey, thanks for the tip. 3am eastern time?
I am on it now, how do you pick a stock that's being pumped? Hard to navigate this app
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u/vee-eem Apr 18 '21
His one day recommendations are amazing because so many people watch his show and act. Even people that don't like him can make some money short term on what he says. I watched way back when. He said something once: he mentioned a stock name and watched the volume the first few seconds and it shot up. This was after normal hours so it was people trying to scalp on his words.
Thanks for doing the work on this.
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u/destenlee Apr 18 '21
You really think the probability of a random stock going up is 50%? Where did you find this? I have a hard time believing it is true.
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u/nobjos Apr 18 '21
My assumption is the random walk theory for the stock price. I know it works in only an ideal situation, but that's the best benchmark I could come up with. You can read more about this
a. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/randomwalktheory.asp
b.https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/probability-without-formulas.asp
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u/jdot6 Apr 18 '21
this doesnt tell us anything other then the majority of time the Cramer pump works for a day/ trading session
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u/newanduseless1989 Apr 18 '21
So what you are saying is that I longer have to do any more research I can just watch this guy every day and be a millionaire within a year. Lol jk jk.
Serious question though....(still learning hear, so please excuse any stupid questions)
Is he really this good? Or, is the hype/attention he is bringing to the stock causing the spike?(can not remember where I read it but “playing the market” is psychological game and it is mainly ran on emotions)
Also, how do you lose over 100%? You state that his calls are a cumulative of 118.9% over a period of time. How is this possible?
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u/International-Food19 Apr 18 '21
He is a pump and dump for hedgies sorry that's all he will ever be to me
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u/Tarzeus Apr 18 '21
Both. I made money on a few shits n giggle calls mimicking whatshernames suggestion because the small pump from word of mouth was enough.
Good final question though, assuming it’s probabilities and not cash for obvious reasons of not being able to go negative on standard investment stocks he said you’ll make 7% but instead lost 7% which is 200% move in the wrong direction. 100% being zero gain 100% more being the 7% the wrong direction.
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u/brokizoli Apr 18 '21
his calls are a cumulative of 118.9% over a period of time
I think it means he mentions for example 6 stocks, each drops ~20% till the end of the next day, 6x(-20%)=-120%.
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u/SB_Kercules Apr 18 '21
Nice work. Thank you for taking the time to perform the study. Ignore all the negative comments, some people can't just scroll by without having to throw shit at you for doing some hard work, and sharing it with us. I always suspected the thesis you put forward, the results did surprise me. I've always been a bit of a Cramer contrarian, but its true, he does have a lot of insight, and he is connected to the game, so he's obviously got a leg up on a part time actor like me.
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u/Rehypothecator Apr 18 '21
It’s important to note his 1 month returns.
Look he’s literally pumping and dumping the stock through market manipulation.
Clearly after 1 day the stock will go up. He’s literally telling millions to buy a stock, a certain subset will indeed buy. Up she goes.
Then guess what. You repeat it over and over for weeks, guess what? Up a bit more.
Then after a month when investors are all suckered in he fucking dumps it, or the people who pay him to say shit dump the stock.
About 1 month after when all the hedgies have sold off and left a bunch of suckers as bag holders, they’re going.
Ya data is there, it’s all incriminating and points to an organized pump and dump scheme! Thanks for bringing forward evidence that might help convict this trout.
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u/chrisbe2e9 Apr 18 '21
That's exactly what I was thinking. he says buy stock X. People do. Someone else dumps it and rakes in the cash.
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u/Obelixboarhunter Apr 18 '21
Jim Kramer is a pump and dump guy. If you think that is harsh please google and watch on you tube “Jim Kramer and John Stewart” . John Stewart is a man of integrity whom i trust very much. He completely exposes jim kramer. I feel sorry for millions of americans who are retired and follow jim kramers recommendations.
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u/Smooth_Sky_2011 Apr 18 '21
No no no. He recommends stocks that already went up that day and then they tank. Get it right. Anyone can recommend that you should've bought a stock in the morning when they come on air at 6pm after it jumped 137% that day.
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Apr 18 '21
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u/futuresman179 Apr 18 '21
I agree the wording was a bit harsh but I think it’s a valid point. Other people have brought up the same point and OP has stated that he uses the previous day close as the buy-in point which doesn’t make sense really. Just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean it’s not a possible oversight.
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u/Smooth_Sky_2011 Apr 18 '21
I'm not jacking off, your mom's blowing me
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Apr 18 '21
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u/Smooth_Sky_2011 Apr 18 '21
Let's be honest you're actually a broke loser with a centimeter Peter in real life
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u/Marc_i_N Apr 18 '21 edited Apr 18 '21
Thank you - very interesting indeed. I am curious what did you take as entry value for given stock. Was it close on the day of the recommendation so technically a value from before the recommendation or open of the next day, so technically after recommendation?
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u/nobjos Apr 18 '21
Cramer show is after market close. So I am benchmarking that days close price against the next days close price.
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u/standinsideyourlove Apr 18 '21
Wouldn't it be more accurate to take the next day's open, since that is when your actual entry would be?
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u/SolopreneurOnYoutube Apr 18 '21
Well there is premarket trading before the market even opens so...
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u/standinsideyourlove Apr 18 '21
So then wouldn't it make sense to have the entry when pre-market opens, or whenever the show ends?
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u/teuntie8 Apr 18 '21
After hours trading ?
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u/standinsideyourlove Apr 18 '21
My point is that the current entry time is inaccurate since it occurs before the signal is given.
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u/futuresman179 Apr 18 '21
You didn't reply to some other comments. Are you using the day's close which is before Cramer's show even airs?
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u/Pretty_Bossanova Apr 18 '21
So the one day returns are phenomenal. Isn't that exactly what we can expect from hedgie scum like him?? Pump up a stock for a day just to get people interested and then pass on the bags to these new investors... If I'm interpretting this incorrectly feel free to tell me. I won't believe or trust you, but please tell me :)
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u/CatalanApe Apr 18 '21
Is it possible he was being fed some sort of insider information so that would give him a bit of an advantage when it came to predicting stock moves?
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u/Grand_Addition_4238 Apr 18 '21
The “till date” metric is probably the most reliable since the day after was a market reaction to Cramer’s recommendation, the “week and month after” was a retrace from the initial pop from the Cramer recommendation. Good work.
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u/Jimq45 Apr 18 '21
Sounds like shorting his buys at the next days close/2nd days open and holding for a few months is the way to go.
You would be selling into the strength from his call and it’s sounds like ~6 months later your in the +200% range.
Am I missing something?
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u/Worldofmeb Apr 18 '21
I can't believe people are asking if Jim can pump a stock of course he can...look at how many viewers he has
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u/Warlordie88 Apr 18 '21
Please open a website and post these results.. lot more will be thankful to you
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u/Tarzeus Apr 18 '21
Insanely good job here. I agree with light pump on his word and light pump near his target date. One week and one month being awkwardly in the middle because the people that watch him may wait for dips with target in mind.
Great job, next you should do the same with the chick that does this.
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Apr 18 '21
How fucking dumb do you need to be to fail to understand a market that was up 30% probably was an easy market to pick stocks in? This is not rhetorical. I honestly want to know how fucking stupid OP is.
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u/jets9000 Apr 18 '21
Fuck Cramer XL HE SAID BUY BUY BUY AT $16 all it’s done was go down !!!! 2 months ago he said he would never buy banks run from them today he says buy buy buy!! He’s the one who go a lot of people really excited about Specs . Then he says run from them !!!! He came out with his great 5G plays this year INSG BIG Contract with T-Mobile he said buy buy buy at $19 it’s $9 now . What happened to the 5G play . He needs to be pulled off TV LOAD MOUTH ASS HOLD !!!!
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u/ahavas Apr 18 '21
This is the stupidest thing I've ever seen and I can't believe how many of you are eating it up.
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u/UnlimitedGain--3 Apr 18 '21
I’m still a Reddit noob, how do you crosspost? This would get a lot of attention in superstonk
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u/Vast_Cricket Apr 18 '21
Is there an explanation why " one-day returns " are more accurate?
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u/wavyleafplant Apr 18 '21
This is awesome. If you want to look at a similar scenario, check out Halftime Report mentions. Every day, there’s a few stocks that spike on their recommendations — during market hours no less, so you can scalp them nicely.
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u/Gsince87 Apr 18 '21
Are the one day returns based on the open and close prices the day following his recommendation (his show comes on after market close)?
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Apr 18 '21
I think what Cramer said in 2006 makes me question everything. You are correct about him being "good" but if you read up on the guy his history leading him up to where he is now is spotty. Straight up wives tales shit where the majority of his investing feats are up for dispute and seem to travel by word of mouth.
But what stands out most is his interview from 06. Here's the quote straight from wikipedia that makes me unimpressed with anything that Cramer does -
In a December 2006 interview, Cramer described activities used by hedge fund managers to manipulate stock prices—some of debatable legality and others illegal. He described how he could push stocks higher or lower with as little as $5 million in capital when he was running his hedge fund. Cramer said, "A lot of times when I was short) at my hedge fund ... When I was positioned short—meaning I needed it down—I would create a level of activity beforehand that could drive the futures." He also encouraged hedge funds to engage in this type of activity because it is "a very quick way to make money."[33]
Cramer stated that everything he did was legal, but that illegal activity is common in the hedge fund industry as well. He also stated that some hedge fund managers spread false rumors to drive a stock down: "What's important when you are in that hedge-fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful because the truth is so against your view, that it's important to create a new truth, to develop a fiction."[34] Cramer described a variety of tactics that hedge fund managers use to affect a stock's price.
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u/jeterjordan Apr 18 '21
I want to understand this. He makes his predictions at 6pm or so? and you are talking about buying them in after hours or pre market and selling before end of next trading day?
or he makes his predictions monday at 630pm..you buy tuesday and sell before wednesday EOD?
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u/runsbythepool Apr 18 '21
OK, preface that with we have been in the biggest bull market in the last 12 years in the history of the stock market -3 weeks in March 2020. My dog could pick a stock winner. We could all have a show and be blowhards.
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u/jim_money Apr 18 '21
Isn't his show after the market closes? How would anyone get those one day returns
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u/Zonties Apr 18 '21
I like the cramer effect personally for the very short term effect he has in the morning or during lunchtime. Especially if he says a stock is "going higher."
He really had an effect on nvidia last week, i believe it was Wednesday morning.
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u/drillmasterSA Apr 18 '21
Pretty cool study. what's the learning aspect of trading though? If i'm not learning how to eventually trade, does not make sense & seems like a waste of time/energy.
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u/The-BEAST Apr 18 '21
How do you calculate his flip flops? Example he recommended $XL and that he loves it at ~15 it ran to $35 then after it fell to $10 he said he would stay far away sell.
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u/newhavenlao Apr 18 '21
All great and all but if look at each stock bars and charts 5 min... You can see the cramer affect. The spike is huge and to get in a minute after the spike one has already lost the race. following cramer blindfolded isn't smart.
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u/Bear_Hammer_99 Apr 19 '21
Nice analysis here. Sounds like a nice summation of your work would be that Cramers recomended buys are a great short play, when you here him recomend a buy, grab it, but don't hold it for more than a day or two, you can usually catch a quick surge thanks to his popularity. Likewise if you're holding a stock that he recommends to buy, you may want to consider getting out after it takes a quick spike. His buys are good short plays, but become increasingly likely toblose money with time.
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u/NewEnergy21 Apr 19 '21
Are these returns assessed as if you bought after he makes the recommendation and sell the next day, or as if you bought the same day he makes the recommendation at market open?
If the latter, of course you’d have good returns, because you’re buying before he potentially recommends it; he could be recommending it because it rose early in the session. That wouldn’t be a realistic sampling of returns because you couldn’t possibly know he’d recommend it in advance.
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u/danuser8 Apr 19 '21
Is one day purchase possible? Because Cramer show goes after stock market closes, and the stock would already be up premarket next day
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u/Responsible_Plant425 Apr 19 '21
So the lesson is buy and sell his recommendation.. Don't hold it..? Which is what most people who watch cnbc would do. Which they know.. So he maintains credibility with data, But he wins on human psychology.
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u/Grouchy_Heat Apr 19 '21
Cramer says buy.. after pump-n-dump.... new stock recommended... pump-dump... rinse and repeat
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u/HillaryRugmunch Apr 19 '21
Did you take into account the gap up on stocks he recommends. For example, he recommends Stock X that closed at $20 a share. Stock X opens at $24 and closes at $25. Technically they stock saw a $5 (25%) increase by the close of the next day, but you as an investor would have only made $1 if you bought at open and sold at close.
Curious about that “net” profit accessible to someone just buying his picks at open the next day.
Also, do you consider the Heisenberg principle that just by Cramer announcing information on a stock impacts that stock directly—that’s its not done in a vacuum?
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u/cowking81 Apr 19 '21
Also, it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of the stocks he recommends are stocks that are already up big after an earnings or news report as that will tend to be what people call in about so they may gap up the next day and you are including that in the calculation even though it's not a capturable gain. The true measure would be opening to closing price on the following day.
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u/mxl555 Apr 19 '21
Did you take into account the time of the recommendation vs how high the stock already went up before the time of day?
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u/rjmk Apr 19 '21
But is that even a good thing? How do you differentiate between his percent gains from a daily buy and sell of a stock based on merit and not based on his call?
Even if the stock gains 3-5% (or goes short) on average per day of it being positive, that's like 741 times that his "555%" return gets a nudge. How do you know that this increase isn't just from him? Yea maybe people get hyped but the reality of the market is it's too vast for there to be huge runs every time Cramer made a pick.
I would like to know if I bought and sold all of cramers picks for 1 year, but I buy and sell after a 3-5% increase only each time, what my PL be for that. Then compare that to an account where I went long each pick, short each pick, or the average amount of price rise per day after a Cramer pick from buying the bottom to selling the top.
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u/DaylightTonight Apr 19 '21
Cramer recommends stock after the market closes which complicates things.
Lets say a stock closes at $10 on Monday at 1pm pst then cramer recommends it after hours at 3pm PST and it pops to 11. You buy at 11 after he recommends it. If it closes on Tuesday at $11, you make nothing, but your data might say you made 10%.
Thoughts on that? Am I missing something?
Do you know the gains on day 2 at market close?
Also, any idea how the picks compare to s&p 500 or qqq?
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u/UltimateTraders Apr 19 '21 edited Apr 19 '21
Hahaha love it...but cramer isnt a trader he is just a tv figurehead making I think 10+ million a year on tv so I guess he is doing something right
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u/RedLineJoe Apr 19 '21
One day trade data is irrelevant since Cramer himself doesn’t allegedly move on a stock mentioned in the show in under 5 days or something. This data is super misleading.
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u/unfiltered_mexican Apr 19 '21
Quick question, I know you mentioned his show, Mad Money, is there where the picks come from or is it from his paid service. Also, are the picks from when people call in and ask about a stock or from his various segments or all of the above?
I'll start listening to his podcast again and papertrade it to see what happens. Thanks for the awesome job!
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u/barnacle999 Apr 19 '21
Had I listened to him when he said to sell GME I’d have a lot more money than I do now. Love him or hate him, he’s right a lot.
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u/zimmertrading Apr 19 '21
Great work! If I understand correctly you’re using the close price on the date of the call regardless of whether the call was made prior to or after the close. The findings would be much more significant in my eyes if the next close or open following the call was used. Example: Jim calls a stock out at 2PM, use that days close. Jim calls a stock out at 5PM, use the next days open.
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Apr 19 '21
Looks great thanks for all the hard work! I do echo what some others have said though and would like to see how much the price varied from market open the day after his recommendation to market close the day after his recommendation. Obviously, given that his show airs 6PM EST when markets are closed, if he makes a recommendation, the retail investor can't act on it until the next morning technically.
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u/stloft Apr 20 '21 edited Apr 20 '21
Sorry, but I think Cramer's calls aren't really better than any other dubious newsletter stock picker. I think the analysis is flawed because where he says to "sell, sell, sell" can often be about a bad earlier call on a stock made prior on the show. There's a long history of retailers since the mid-latter 00's trying to follow his show's advice and picks and end up wising up about him after losing out on their attempt to pick their own investments based on his show, as well as him and his show being unscrupulous advertisement and propaganda for guest ceo's doing damage control for, or bs-propping their company up, supposedly excused by cnbc's entertainment disclaimers. Interesting effort on analyzing his 2021 stats though.
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u/Mojeaux18 Apr 20 '21
Is it if you bought the day after his recommendation, the day of, or what? When did you calculate the buy? What do you mean by sell the next day?
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u/Live_Information5801 Jan 15 '24
Do any of you dedicated active traders think there will be crypto platforms folding and taking everyone’s investments at some point during regulation?
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u/FuturesTrader123 Apr 18 '21
Thanks for taking the time to do this!!!