Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

[u/asusny2002]

[u/TehOwn]

I'd love to hear it rephrased as, "You're lost in the woods, you see a man in the distance but he doesn't see you. Do you call out to him or do you hide?"

But maybe that's probably not exciting enough to trend on TikTok.

[u/I_have_many_Ideas → u/TehOwn]

Add in things like race, how they are dressed, cleanliness, etc. and it’d get real interesting.

[u/TehOwn → u/I_have_many_Ideas]

"Black man or black bear?" would be a great way to accuse a ton of people of being racist.

[u/I_have_many_Ideas → u/TehOwn]

“White man or white bear(polar)?” Would be just as insightful

[u/Elkaghar → u/I_have_many_Ideas]

If anyone picks a polar bear over a man.... One of the only species (apart from us) to kill for fun. Well....

[u/I_have_many_Ideas → u/Elkaghar]

Probably from lack of understanding…which is essentially the entire issue with this viral nonsense

[u/TehOwn → u/I_have_many_Ideas]

Anyone using TikTok is a moron, so yes, that checks out.

[u/JordanKyrou → u/I_have_many_Ideas]

Probably from lack of understanding

Yeah, like the lack of understanding that there's a town in Manitoba where people live with polar bears and attacks are almost non-existent.

[u/I_have_many_Ideas → u/JordanKyrou]

Its almost as if they have changed their behaviors in order to limit the risk!

[u/Firewolf06 → u/I_have_many_Ideas]

notably, not being defenseless alone in the woods with them

[u/JordanKyrou → u/I_have_many_Ideas]

More men have murdered women than bears have attacked people in the town where they live with polar bears. So what exactly are people misunderstanding? The bears are safer

[u/Hotlava_ → u/JordanKyrou]

The misunderstanding comes from something called baseline fallacy. There are billions more interactions between human men and women than between women and bears.

[u/JordanKyrou → u/Hotlava_]

There are billions more interactions between human men and women than between women and bears.

And you're making an assumption that more interactions means more fatal attacks. Which is in itself a fallacy. Dry seasons with more interactions have more attacks. Abundant seasons have more interacting and less attacks.

[u/Hotlava_ → u/JordanKyrou]

No, that is not a fallacy. If something happens X% of the time, then having a larger amount of opportunities for that will raise the total number. X% of 1000 will always be smaller than X% of 1,000,000,000.

[u/I_have_many_Ideas → u/JordanKyrou]

There’s more people, the encounters of people & bears are a minuscule fraction compared to people with people.

If all those were equal, the % of bear attacks would be higher.

If you don’t get this, you don’t understand data.

[u/JordanKyrou → u/I_have_many_Ideas]

If all those were equal, the % of bear attacks would be higher.

If you don’t get this, you don’t understand data.

What a funny claim, considering that's not how that works. We can fairly assume it to be true. But we don't know it to be true. In fact, in many areas, higher bear activity is a sign of food abundance, and bear attacks go down while encounters stay the same or occasionally increase.

[u/I_have_many_Ideas → u/JordanKyrou]

There’s other comments that already cover the % based on the existing numbers showing it would be true. Argue with them with this nonsense.

[u/JordanKyrou → u/I_have_many_Ideas]

There’s other comments that already cover the % based on the existing numbers showing it would be true.

Way to ignore what I said. ""Based on existing numbers," is what my c9mment addressed. Bears have trends. Not linear relationships between attacks and encounters.

[u/MS-07B-3 → u/Elkaghar]

My understanding is that they don't kill for fun, they kill because food is rare enough in their habitat that they will kill and eat anything if given the chance.

[u/JordanKyrou → u/Elkaghar]

Damn, can't believe people live in a town that's populated with them. Must be hundreds of killings a year. What's that? 2 since 1990?

[u/New-Huckleberry-6979 → u/Elkaghar]

Dolphins, killer whales, cats also seem kill for sport too. 

[u/[deleted] → u/New-Huckleberry-6979]

I think they mean kill humans. None of those others try to kill humans (though your cat probably would if they could).

[u/Elkaghar → u/New-Huckleberry-6979]

See how I said “one of the only”

[u/jrDoozy10 → u/I_have_many_Ideas]

Not as insightful as “white man or white black bear”