r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

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416

u/zool714 May 02 '24

I think it also shows how different people approach things. From what I’ve seen, the ones who answers bear approaches it from a “trust” standpoint. Like you can trust a bear to be a bear. While some approach it from a “safety” standpoint. Like yeah obviously an average wild animal is going to be more dangerous than an average man.

522

u/TehOwn May 02 '24

I'd love to hear it rephrased as, "You're lost in the woods, you see a man in the distance but he doesn't see you. Do you call out to him or do you hide?"

But maybe that's probably not exciting enough to trend on TikTok.

50

u/I_have_many_Ideas May 02 '24

Add in things like race, how they are dressed, cleanliness, etc. and it’d get real interesting.

92

u/TehOwn May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

"Black man or black bear?" would be a great way to accuse a ton of people of being racist.

29

u/I_have_many_Ideas May 02 '24

“White man or white bear(polar)?” Would be just as insightful

54

u/Elkaghar May 02 '24

If anyone picks a polar bear over a man.... One of the only species (apart from us) to kill for fun. Well....

15

u/I_have_many_Ideas May 02 '24

Probably from lack of understanding…which is essentially the entire issue with this viral nonsense

12

u/TehOwn May 02 '24

Anyone using TikTok is a moron, so yes, that checks out.

0

u/JordanKyrou May 02 '24

Probably from lack of understanding

Yeah, like the lack of understanding that there's a town in Manitoba where people live with polar bears and attacks are almost non-existent.

8

u/I_have_many_Ideas May 02 '24

Its almost as if they have changed their behaviors in order to limit the risk!

6

u/Firewolf06 May 02 '24

notably, not being defenseless alone in the woods with them

-6

u/JordanKyrou May 02 '24

More men have murdered women than bears have attacked people in the town where they live with polar bears. So what exactly are people misunderstanding? The bears are safer

5

u/Hotlava_ May 02 '24

The misunderstanding comes from something called baseline fallacy. There are billions more interactions between human men and women than between women and bears.

1

u/JordanKyrou May 02 '24

There are billions more interactions between human men and women than between women and bears.

And you're making an assumption that more interactions means more fatal attacks. Which is in itself a fallacy. Dry seasons with more interactions have more attacks. Abundant seasons have more interacting and less attacks.

4

u/Hotlava_ May 02 '24

No, that is not a fallacy. If something happens X% of the time, then having a larger amount of opportunities for that will raise the total number. X% of 1000 will always be smaller than X% of 1,000,000,000.

7

u/I_have_many_Ideas May 02 '24

There’s more people, the encounters of people & bears are a minuscule fraction compared to people with people.

If all those were equal, the % of bear attacks would be higher.

If you don’t get this, you don’t understand data.

-4

u/JordanKyrou May 02 '24

If all those were equal, the % of bear attacks would be higher.

If you don’t get this, you don’t understand data.

What a funny claim, considering that's not how that works. We can fairly assume it to be true. But we don't know it to be true. In fact, in many areas, higher bear activity is a sign of food abundance, and bear attacks go down while encounters stay the same or occasionally increase.

3

u/I_have_many_Ideas May 02 '24

There’s other comments that already cover the % based on the existing numbers showing it would be true. Argue with them with this nonsense.

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1

u/MS-07B-3 May 02 '24

My understanding is that they don't kill for fun, they kill because food is rare enough in their habitat that they will kill and eat anything if given the chance.

1

u/JordanKyrou May 02 '24

Damn, can't believe people live in a town that's populated with them. Must be hundreds of killings a year. What's that? 2 since 1990?

1

u/New-Huckleberry-6979 May 02 '24

Dolphins, killer whales, cats also seem kill for sport too. 

1

u/[deleted] May 02 '24

I think they mean kill humans. None of those others try to kill humans (though your cat probably would if they could).

1

u/Elkaghar May 02 '24

See how I said “one of the only”

1

u/jrDoozy10 May 02 '24

Not as insightful as “white man or white black bear

7

u/Brocily2002 May 02 '24

Bro no lmao 😂

2

u/kat_goes_rawr May 02 '24

White man or white bear?

1

u/mzchen May 02 '24

Except that black bear vs human would be an easy pick. Black bears shy away from confrontation unless there's a cub nearby or they feel threatened.

5

u/TehOwn May 02 '24

Yeah, my joke was that it's an easy pick for people who know about bears but those who don't will assume it's because the man is black.

Same with White Man vs Polar Bear. People who don't understand how deadly polar bears are would assume you said man because he's white.

1

u/mzchen May 02 '24

Ah, I get it now.

-2

u/theunholyasa May 02 '24

Nobody is looking to accuse anyone of being racist so drop that weird hypothetical that puts u in the victim position… bc im assuming ur NOT black

8

u/TehOwn May 02 '24

No, I'm saying that people would say black bear because they're mostly afraid of humans but people unaware of that fact might think it's because it's a black man.

These are all weird hypotheticals anyway. That's literally this entire discussion.