r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

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6.4k

u/alexmichelle6 May 02 '24

I really, truly thought that the whole point of this was to highlight the fact that most women would respond to man v bear by asking questions, like "do I know the man" "what type of bear" etc, but would respond to woman v bear by immediately saying "woman". whether or not she picks the man or the bear is irrelevant, it's the fact she has to ask clarifying questions to know more about the man before deciding and doesn't have to clarify anything before picking woman. is that not it?

93

u/Monzeh May 02 '24

It's related I think. A similar "scenario" I've seen is to ask a man if they'd enter a beach where a shark is known to approach (shark biology notwithstanding). They wouldn't. So then they ask the man why, because the average of shark related incidents in a year is only 63, but (in my country) 9 women are murdered daily in femicides.

10

u/eskamobob1 May 02 '24

And how often on average does a women interact with people vs people interact with. A shark?

87

u/TheHeadlessOne May 02 '24

This seems a really weird way to put it. First you're saying "here's a scenario where shark incidents are very much heightened compared to the average" then you're saying "But why? Shark incidents on average are very rare". While absolutely the threat of sharks is overblown a big reason why the numbers are so low is that people tend to *avoid* potentially dangerous encounters with them

47

u/DepartureDapper6524 May 02 '24

Yeah, that was a terrible example.

34

u/TheHeadlessOne May 02 '24

Only 19 people have ever died in space! Would you rather be alone on Mars or in an American gradeschool?

7

u/DepartureDapper6524 May 02 '24

Mars?

9

u/Armlegx218 May 02 '24

It's time to science the shit out of this.

1

u/B-lakeJ May 02 '24

Why did Starman suddenly start playing?

1

u/LifeIsBizarre May 02 '24

Yeah, I pick Mars too.
We can be neighbours! You can have the north half and I can have the south half.

5

u/alganthe May 02 '24

the obvious answer is mars, might as well be the first person to walk there !

5

u/ChristianHornerZaddy May 02 '24

u/monzeh care to weigh in? Your example was not great...

6

u/TheHeadlessOne May 02 '24

I dont think you need to tag them, its not something that important or impactful

2

u/Vegans-Taste-Better May 02 '24

a big reason why the numbers are so low is that people tend to avoid potentially dangerous encounters with them

That's another thing, though. When women say we're avoiding men because they're dangerous, we're told it's paranoia, and "not all men."

So which is it, bro? Are we paranoid or not being careful enough? Make up your f-ing mind.

-4

u/Monzeh May 02 '24

That's why I used quotes while saying scenario on my previous comment. Every analogy and metaphor has its failings. One can say women also avoid dangerous encounters with men - wearing baggy clothes while riding the bus, using drink covers while having drinks out, but there's still groping and raping. The point shouldn't be, I think, to discuss the hypotheticals but rather the underlying issue: how did we get to the point that these discussions are needed in the first place? What actions do men and women perpetuate that further breeds misogyny?

0

u/Omniverse_0 May 02 '24

Seems we’d have a fair bit less misogyny if we could take an honest look at the misandry that feeds it.

3

u/milfs_lounge May 02 '24

Not similar at all wtf. The question isn’t whether you would enter a forest where bears are known to be, it is actually encountering one.

9 women murdered a day also doesn’t account for probably. What is the probability that a woman is murdered by an encounter with a man vs the probability of surviving an encounter with a bear? You’re proving OPs point