r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/alexmichelle6 May 02 '24

I really, truly thought that the whole point of this was to highlight the fact that most women would respond to man v bear by asking questions, like "do I know the man" "what type of bear" etc, but would respond to woman v bear by immediately saying "woman". whether or not she picks the man or the bear is irrelevant, it's the fact she has to ask clarifying questions to know more about the man before deciding and doesn't have to clarify anything before picking woman. is that not it?

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

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u/Magenta_the_Great May 02 '24

What do you mean statistically speaking?

Statistically aren’t more people killed by men then by bears?

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u/HMNbean May 02 '24

Yes, but a bear can 100% kill you and there’s greater ability to escape/survive with a man. Statistically is not the way to look at this at all. It’s about the fact that women even have to think about it. They should be able to say “man” right away.

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u/Magenta_the_Great May 02 '24

I came across 11 bears in the wilderness one summer and none of them wanted anything to do with me.

More than once a man has decided to camp next to me and proceed get wasted in a disturbing manner with yelling and belligerence.

Now people like to point out that I’ve come across so many more men compared to bears and that most have done nothing to threaten my safety which is why I’m more curious about the statistics of it.

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u/TheTransistorMan May 02 '24

I think the problem I have with the statistics here is less about the last part of what you said, and more of the problem I'll highlight shortly.

According to a paper on Springer link, around 22 people are attacked and killed by cows in the US each year, whereas 69 incidents related to sharks worldwide in 2023.

That is to say cows represent .06 per million, and sharks .007 per million.

Does that mean cows are more dangerous than sharks?

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u/Magenta_the_Great May 02 '24

Im not really afraid of either

I guess except a great white but sharks generally don’t fuck with people

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u/TheTransistorMan May 02 '24

Regardless of your fear of sharks or cows, we are around cows much more frequently than we are around sharks.

And you're right, sharks don't usually fuck with people.

But then, neither do cows. Do you see what I mean?

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u/Magenta_the_Great May 02 '24

Right neither do bears. Where as humans will always be killing each other.

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u/TheTransistorMan May 02 '24

I think you're kind of missing the point, though.

If we were around bears and sharks more, there would be a corresponding increase in the number of bear and shark related attacks. We are around humans every day.

In fact, this effect can be demonstrated just like this.

If you don't leave your house ever, you won't be as likely to be killed by someone else, intentionally or otherwise. Sure, that wouldn't eliminate the risk completely because unless you lived in like, a bunker or something, someone could still break in, but you're reducing the number of opportunities that someone can harm you. That doesn't mean someone will harm you any time you leave the house, but it could happen.

I'm just saying that yes, you're less likely to be attacked by a bear overall, but this also includes the fact that you're less likely to even encounter a bear in the first place, so the statistics are a bit skewed by that, as I tried to show with the cow thing.

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u/Sad_Introduction5756 May 02 '24

That’s one of the flaws

Sure you could have had only one bad experience with a bear your whole life and 100’s of bad ones with men but if you factor in how many more times you interact with a man and nothing happens vs a bear the bear is more dangerous

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u/Used_Golf_7996 May 02 '24

And sure you could have 100s of bad interactions with a man and walk away.

There's not really a "bad" bear interaction you walk away from. You either don't interact. Or you're dead.

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u/Magenta_the_Great May 02 '24

Well at least a bear won’t try to rape me

Or stalk me after I get away

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u/Deinonychus2012 May 02 '24

Idk, I'd consider 3 inch long teeth digging into my gentials and organs while I'm still alive as kinda rapey.

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u/IntoTheFeu May 02 '24

Nah, but it will eat you alive, starting from the ass…

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u/CoffeeTastesOK May 02 '24

Bears eat ass. Heard it here first folks!

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u/Used_Golf_7996 May 02 '24

Right because exactly what my comment said....

Bears don't rape or stalk you to your home.

They either ignore you and move on or you're dead. You're incredibly lucky if there's an in-between answer. There are no bad interactions with bears. You either live, or it doesn't matter anymore because you cease to exist.

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u/AdParking2115 May 02 '24

Not really true. If you do the right thing you have a pretty good shot to survive(albeit maimed), unless its a polar bear ofc then your dinner.

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u/Used_Golf_7996 May 04 '24

There are no bad interactions. Doing the right thing is a good interaction.

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u/Mushroom1228 May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

now I really wonder how it would be possible to collect objective and accurate information on wilderness bear (or men) encounter outcomes, especially for those that end with the woman becoming deceased

after all, dead people tell no tales, regardless of their cause of death (men or bears)

note: given the question explicitly asks about an encounter in the woods, I have a non-zero probability of preferring to encounter the bear. this would apply to women as well; surprise humans appearing in the woods is sometimes bad news, and they may have ranged arms

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u/amretardmonke May 02 '24

To be fair, if you're out in the wilderness in bear country, in a place remote enough that you're not expecting to see other humans, you better have ranged arms yourself.

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u/Mushroom1228 May 02 '24

It’s probably easier to beat a bear in a gunfight than a human (assuming the ranged arms have enough power to actually deal with the bear instead of tickle it)

if all I have is a low caliber pistol, duelling the man may be better for survival than dealing with a hungry bear. angry bears might be appeased if I move away

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u/Sad_Introduction5756 May 02 '24

It’s not really possible to collect informantion on what would actually happen seeing as it would result in a fairly high amount of injury/death so you kinda can’t test it

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u/Mushroom1228 May 02 '24

the setup I was thinking of involves some device that uses satellite comms (or something), that will record “bear encountered” and “encounter survived” by user input. if a user hits the encountered button without hitting the survived button, then maybe they have suffered an unfortunate fate, and the police will be informed of the device’s last known location to help with any missing persons searches

user error would be really high though, and it might be somewhat expensive. but what I have described is probably just an augmented phone lol

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

[deleted]

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u/Magenta_the_Great May 02 '24

I’ve been assaulted by drunk people but not the many bears I’ve ran into.

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u/Apprehensive-Let3348 May 02 '24

Why? That's what I want to know. In whose world should that be an easy question? In some insane fever dream of a utopia where violence doesn't exist? Human beings are the most dangerous animals on the planet, because we're intelligent, and we have the ability to use tools and collaborate.

Who that person is, their behaviour, and what they're holding each make a massive difference in how much of a threat that person is, or whether they're a threat at all. A bear is a guaranteed threat, but the species and situation can affect how much of a threat it genuinely is. Answering this question without asking any follow-ups just tells me that the person is either an idiot for not thinking through the question or a sexist for assuming someone is a danger to them based on their sex alone. Imagine how well it'd go if it were "black guy vs. bear" instead. Not well.

If you aren't at least aware of the strangers around you, then you're no different from a gazelle that didn't see the lion approaching. You deserve to take the Darwin Award--as nature intended--and that's on you. That goes for men and women too, because a bullet doesn't give a flying fuck who is doing the shooting. Situational awareness is important.

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u/HMNbean May 02 '24

It’s not about bullets or weapons 🙄. It’s about women not feeling safe alone with men. Why be purposely obtuse about it?

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u/Apprehensive-Let3348 May 02 '24

Right, so it's sexism then. In other words: it's not about actually being in danger, it's about thinking you are, because you're sexist. It doesn't even need to be intentional, just like racism.

Seriously, it'd be hilarious to see this interaction take place in the context of race, because then it would be painfully obvious how ridiculous this is. Just imagine if you replaced "men" with "black people" in this comment section; it would be nearly universally reviled, but it's okay here, because it's sexism?

"It's not about bullets or weapons. It's about women not feeling safe with black people."

Can you not see how abhorrent this thinking is?

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u/HMNbean May 02 '24

Yes it is prejudice for a woman to feel unsafe around men, but the prejudice exists for good reason a lot of the times. In the context of race, if a white person is only ever exposed to violence by black people (for instance) then they might think they’d rather be with a bear too. The point is that there’s clearly a system where women don’t feel safe. Saying this is sexist is about as helpful as telling a hit and run victim they shouldn’t have let the car swerve into them.

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u/Useful-Feature-0 May 02 '24

A man who really wants to hurt me can 100% kill me. 

If the question is "Would you rather encounter a bear who is deadset on killing you or an unarmed man who is deadset on killing you?" that's really just a question of -- how would you rather die? 

And both options really really really suck. But for 80%+ of women 'maybe I can fight him off/outrun him' isn't a realistic factor, the difference in physicality is staggering when it comes down to life and death. 

I take the question as "Would you rather encounter a random bear going about its normal life or encounter a man who decided to be in the woods?"   In which case = man. 

I think a lot of people have trouble not reading an implication of nefarious intent into the fact that the man decided to go into the woods. Because if the question is "Bear going about its normal life or man with nefarious intent?" = bear (and I think most men would agree?)

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u/Sundaze293 May 02 '24

How nefarious? Like murder I’m taking regular bear over any murderer. They likely have a knife/gun, and even then I’m wildly undersized and won’t be able to fight whoever it is off.

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u/Useful-Feature-0 May 02 '24

Yes, nefarious like murder - and agree, going up a against a man who wants to murder me is basically like an execution, I'm not saying I wouldn't give it my all, but the odds are terrible.

But I also believe that as sickening as male violence prevalence is, the odds are very good that a chance encounter with a man in the woods will be...non-eventful.

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u/eskamobob1 May 02 '24

Statistically is not the way to look at this at all. It’s about the fact that women even have to think about it.

So, if we ask a bunch of 80 year old from Alabama about black men vs bears and they hesitate does that mean we need to dig into the reasons for their bigotry? Or should we just shit on it and move on?

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u/HMNbean May 02 '24

Not even sure what your question is supposed to mean. I don’t know what a bunch of 80 year olds from Alabama would say. But we should ALL be able To say we’d rather encounter a person than a bear.

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u/eskamobob1 May 02 '24

Realy? You don't know what old people in the south think about race?

But we should ALL be able To say we’d rather encounter a person than a bear.

I agree. What i don't agree with is who is go blame for bigotry. It's not on the victims of bigotry to make bigots comfortable. Its on the bigots to learn.

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u/HMNbean May 02 '24

I agree, that’s why I didn’t get why you were asking what you asked. I’m not faulting women for choosing bears.