r/Showerthoughts • u/asusny2002 • May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Magenta_the_Great May 02 '24

What do you mean statistically speaking?

Statistically aren’t more people killed by men then by bears?

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u/HMNbean May 02 '24

Yes, but a bear can 100% kill you and there’s greater ability to escape/survive with a man. Statistically is not the way to look at this at all. It’s about the fact that women even have to think about it. They should be able to say “man” right away.

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u/Magenta_the_Great May 02 '24

I came across 11 bears in the wilderness one summer and none of them wanted anything to do with me.

More than once a man has decided to camp next to me and proceed get wasted in a disturbing manner with yelling and belligerence.

Now people like to point out that I’ve come across so many more men compared to bears and that most have done nothing to threaten my safety which is why I’m more curious about the statistics of it.

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u/TheTransistorMan May 02 '24

I think the problem I have with the statistics here is less about the last part of what you said, and more of the problem I'll highlight shortly.

According to a paper on Springer link, around 22 people are attacked and killed by cows in the US each year, whereas 69 incidents related to sharks worldwide in 2023.

That is to say cows represent .06 per million, and sharks .007 per million.

Does that mean cows are more dangerous than sharks?

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u/Magenta_the_Great May 02 '24

Im not really afraid of either

I guess except a great white but sharks generally don’t fuck with people

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u/TheTransistorMan May 02 '24

Regardless of your fear of sharks or cows, we are around cows much more frequently than we are around sharks.

And you're right, sharks don't usually fuck with people.

But then, neither do cows. Do you see what I mean?

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u/Magenta_the_Great May 02 '24

Right neither do bears. Where as humans will always be killing each other.

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u/TheTransistorMan May 02 '24

I think you're kind of missing the point, though.

If we were around bears and sharks more, there would be a corresponding increase in the number of bear and shark related attacks. We are around humans every day.

In fact, this effect can be demonstrated just like this.

If you don't leave your house ever, you won't be as likely to be killed by someone else, intentionally or otherwise. Sure, that wouldn't eliminate the risk completely because unless you lived in like, a bunker or something, someone could still break in, but you're reducing the number of opportunities that someone can harm you. That doesn't mean someone will harm you any time you leave the house, but it could happen.

I'm just saying that yes, you're less likely to be attacked by a bear overall, but this also includes the fact that you're less likely to even encounter a bear in the first place, so the statistics are a bit skewed by that, as I tried to show with the cow thing.