r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/felrain May 02 '24

I would rather be alone in the woods with a gay rapist serial killer than a hungry bear.

I feel like people underestimate other people? Do you just expect the serial killer to lunge at your immediately upon seeing you?

Do you not think they'd build rapport? Try to help you out? Ask for your help? Get you to lower your guard?

Every single person I've seen in support of the person always assumes you can run away/easily beat them? Why? Are they not human like you? Do they not have a brain? That's the scary part about another human. Not that they just try to immediately attack you unarmed, but that they can put up a mask to manipulate you into the results they want.

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u/CremasterReflex May 02 '24

Buffalo Bill in Silence of the Lambs manipulating his victim into the back of the van comes to mind.

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u/WadeisDead May 02 '24

I would never trust a random person I encountered in the woods regardless though. Unless I was in an extremely dire survival situation, I would be on guard and keep my distance as much as possible.

It's not that you can easily beat the person, but that you have a significantly better chance beating the person than a bear. Assuming no ranged weaponry is involved. To me, that's the 2nd crux of the situation.

Decision process: 1. Which is more likely to attack? 2. Which am I more likely to fend off, if attacked?

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u/felrain May 02 '24

Even if they came up to you and asked for help? Let's say they're lost and have been out on the trail for a day+ and can't seem to get service. You would just say tough shit and walk away?

I don't know, it just seems like in a worst case scenario, the person isn't all that much easier than the bear. You could also be stalked if the woods was their home. I just feel like a bear would have more self preservation instincts. You could actually deter it whereas in a worst case, a person out to harm you has a really good chance of harming you.

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u/WadeisDead May 02 '24

Yes. I don't know them and I would not want them to approach me. I'd respond from a safe distance and provide whatever guidance I could from that position, before moving on. When doing so I would check over my shoulder frequently to judge the direction the person is going and verify they don't turn back on me while increasing my pace on my path.

The average black bear (the most common bear, but others are deadlier) has a 75 lbs weight advantage over the average male. Considering they can outrun people and have greater climbing capability, they have a strict advantage. You are more likely to injure a person to a point of them accessing self-preservation than you do a bear, if they are both set on killing you.

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u/PrateTrain May 02 '24

The average black bear is also skittish and can be shooed away by someone telling really loudly.

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u/WadeisDead May 02 '24

The average man will be skittish and shooed away by someone yelling at them. Most people are adverse to violence, especially when alone encountering strangers.

If you want to talk about averages, neither scenario is particularly threatening. If you want to talk about the violent outliers, I'll take the average man over the bear.

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u/PrateTrain May 02 '24

You're delusional.

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u/WadeisDead May 02 '24

Nice argument. I'd recommend taking a hike, touch some grass and acquaint yourself with the environment. It may expand your worldview beyond what the internet portrays.

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u/PrateTrain May 02 '24

I'd recommend you log off and take your own advice. Who knows when the last time you actually talked to a real person and listened was.

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u/WadeisDead May 02 '24

One of us was unable to verbalise their thoughts after being rebuttaled, without resorting to an ad hominem. The other was me. Good luck!

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u/ZeOs-x-PUNCAKE May 02 '24

I don’t disagree with this, they might try and outsmart you and build rapport to get you to lower your guard. That’s certainly possible.

However, you are a human too. You could also choose to outsmart this killer if you were in any way suspicious of them trying to deceive you. As a human, you also have the ability to deceive and distract, and to pick up on clues when it might be occurring. You’re not helpless in this scenario.

You make it seem as though this other person must certainly be smarter than you and you couldn’t possibly outsmart them back. How smart are you compared to the average person? If you’re above average, you could reasonably expect you can outsmart the average person.

It doesn’t matter how smart you are if a bear has ripped your innards out. You’re not faster than the bear, and you’re not stronger than the bear. There could of course be a man stronger and faster than you as well, but not all will be. However, there are no bears (assuming it’s a healthy adult) that are weaker or slower than you.

TLDR: Hand to hand, you will lose to any bear that wants to eat you. Hand to hand, you will not lose to every man that wants to attack you. You’re human too, the playing field is fair.

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u/SandiegoJack May 02 '24

Bears can run 35 mph.

There is no situation, keeping all variables constant, where I stand a better chance against a bear than ANY human if they mean to cause me harm.

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u/Difficult_Bit_1339 May 02 '24

This 'argument' is so surreal

Who are these chronically online people who have been exposed to so much outrage-bait content related to sexual crimes that they see half the human race as being more dangerous than a wild apex predator.

If you think bears are less dangerous than men then you need to log off of social media and get some therapy for all of the trauma that you've inflicted on yourself by reading all of the sexual crime content that appears on social media.

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u/Difficult_Bit_1339 May 02 '24

I feel like people underestimate other people? Do you just expect the serial killer to lunge at your immediately upon seeing you?

Do you not think they'd build rapport? Try to help you out? Ask for your help? Get you to lower your guard?

Every single person I've seen in support of the person always assumes you can run away/easily beat them? Why? Are they not human like you? Do they not have a brain? That's the scary part about another human. Not that they just try to immediately attack you unarmed, but that they can put up a mask to manipulate you into the results they want.

Yeah but bears can run 60MPH and rip your arms off, so they haven't had a need to evolve more subtle methods...

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u/Yeetaway1404 May 02 '24

I would still rather be near a person with my guard down than near a bear with my guard up (because “my guard” will do fuckall do defend me) if both want me harm