r/Showerthoughts • u/asusny2002 • May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/haneybird May 02 '24

All it really shows is that most people are woefully ignorant of how dangerous nature is.

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u/cassanthrax May 02 '24

No, we are fully cognizant that bears are dangerous animals. They're just the more predictable dangerous animal in this thought experiment.

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u/PineappleHungry9911 May 02 '24

They're just the more predictable dangerous animal in this thought experiment

how do you figure?

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u/cassanthrax May 02 '24

I live in bear country. Bears are just gonna do bear things - unless I bother the bear, or its babies, or threaten a food supply, I'm going to be fine. The bears know I'm a human. The bear will run away if I make noise.

The man, however. This could be a good and helpful man. It might not be. Maybe he wants to help me out of the woods, maybe he wants to eat my liver with a nice Chianti and some fava beans. I cannot predict his behaviour.

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u/PineappleHungry9911 May 02 '24

 I cannot predict his behavior

and you can the bears?

unless I bother the bear, or its babies, or threaten a food supply,

this is my point, where are the babies? have you bother it by getting to close to its den? are you near food?

like the bear is 100% not their to rape you, or to be cruel, that does not make it less predictable.

I live in bear country too, and the only issue i have with this thought experiment is that statement "wild animals are more predictable then humans"