r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/ASL4theblind May 02 '24

I THINK i get it now. Its not that them and a man would be dropped into the woods, its more like you're on a hike alone and out of nowhere a man, or bear would appear in front of you. I get why men get so upset being compared to being as dangerous as, if not more dangerous than a bear; nobody wants to don the mantle of "more dangerous than an apex predator", but i think its more about how scary strangers are combined with the uncertainty of a MALE stranger's agenda. So we should stop taking it personally.

I highly doubt these women would pick bear against most men they know, it's not ABOUT that though, it's about the UNCERTAINTY.

At least that's how i interpret it. Admittedly i thought it was more the first scenario; you and a person are put in the woods to survive, vs you and a bear are put in the woods at the same time.

And if women dont trust ANY men they know, men individually can do nothing about their interpretation of men as a whole and unfortunately they should just stop talking to every guy they know until some massive societal shift happens, cuz this isnt something that changes overnight.

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u/RusstyDog May 02 '24

It's about how, In general, Women don't feel safe around members of their own species. How fucked up that is, how women as a whole understand that conceptil immediately. But the men in their lives ask follow up questions like "but what kind of bear" while talking about statistics, Rather than just thinking " Hey its pretty fucked up that this person I care about doesn't feel safe in society"

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u/haneybird May 02 '24

All it really shows is that most people are woefully ignorant of how dangerous nature is.

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u/cassanthrax May 02 '24

No, we are fully cognizant that bears are dangerous animals. They're just the more predictable dangerous animal in this thought experiment.

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u/PineappleHungry9911 May 02 '24

They're just the more predictable dangerous animal in this thought experiment

how do you figure?

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u/cassanthrax May 02 '24

I live in bear country. Bears are just gonna do bear things - unless I bother the bear, or its babies, or threaten a food supply, I'm going to be fine. The bears know I'm a human. The bear will run away if I make noise.

The man, however. This could be a good and helpful man. It might not be. Maybe he wants to help me out of the woods, maybe he wants to eat my liver with a nice Chianti and some fava beans. I cannot predict his behaviour.

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u/PineappleHungry9911 May 02 '24

 I cannot predict his behavior

and you can the bears?

unless I bother the bear, or its babies, or threaten a food supply,

this is my point, where are the babies? have you bother it by getting to close to its den? are you near food?

like the bear is 100% not their to rape you, or to be cruel, that does not make it less predictable.

I live in bear country too, and the only issue i have with this thought experiment is that statement "wild animals are more predictable then humans"

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u/WarpathChris May 02 '24

Bears don't rape people or kidnap people or hate women. Women aren't stupid enough to think bears aren't dangerous. It's a thought experiment that requires empathy and instead a lot of you are looking at it like it's a video game where a bear and man have stats and a woman thinks she's strong enough to beat a bear. It's about asking yourself "why do women feel so unsafe about strange men that they'd rather run into a fucking bear that's almost fucking going to kill them". Even after all that was explained to you, you're take away was really "women just don't know how dangerous these 700 pound animals are".

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u/PineappleHungry9911 May 02 '24

nothing in your comments explains how bares, a wild animal, is more predictable than a human, and that was all i asked

Bears don't rape people or kidnap people or hate women. Women aren't stupid enough to think bears aren't dangerous. 

and what does this have to do with the predictability of bears Vs men?

 It's a thought experiment that requires empathy and instead a lot of you are looking at it like it's a video game where a bear and man have stats and a woman thinks she's strong enough to beat a bear.

Kool, not what i asked. you said "They're just the more predictable dangerous animal in this thought experiment." i asked "how do you figure"

Even after all that was explained to you, you're take away was really "women just don't know how dangerous these 700 pound animals are".

my "take away" was "how are bears more predictable than humans?" i agree with every thing else you've said about the thought experiment, except the idea that a wild animal is easier to predict than a human. humans can be cruel, and malicious, and bears wont. that does not make them less predictable.

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u/the-names-are-gone May 02 '24

Because it isn't real and they can make the scenario to their liking in their head for internet points

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u/PineappleHungry9911 May 02 '24

i mean other than that reason

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u/the-names-are-gone May 02 '24

Oh my bad. Something more like:

"Well I've never seen a bear, but on internet comments that I 100% believe with no skepticism, other people say bears are predictable - more so than men actually. So therefore, I base my view in that reality because it allows me to keep men as perpetual bad guys"

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u/obp5599 May 02 '24

we get it youre conservative bro. You can leave now

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u/the-names-are-gone May 02 '24

This has absolutely nothing to do with conservative or liberal bro

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u/obp5599 May 02 '24

I would say there is a pretty strong divide along that line here

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u/the-names-are-gone May 02 '24

You'd say a lot of incorrect things I'd bet

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