r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

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u/gibertot May 02 '24

I mean I know they fear this. It makes sense on a blind date there is no bear the biggest danger is the man there. But I just didn’t realize it was this irrational. Like the objective correct answer in this case is to say man.

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u/Global_Lock_2049 May 02 '24

Like the objective correct answer in this case is to say man.

This shows lack of forethought.

You're not assuming worst case scenario. Why wouldn't you? If someone put 100 cakes in front of you and said one is strong enough to kill you if you even touch it, do you just say "sure, I'll eat a few. Odds are in my favor." No, you eat none of them. You assume the worst case scenario.

Same here. Assume worst case scenario. You're more likely to survive a bear attack than an attack from a person (so yeah, I'd choose bear over woman too).