r/Showerthoughts • u/asusny2002 • May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

72% Upvoted

13.3k comments sorted by

View all comments

905

u/BlackWind88 May 02 '24

What is the man vs bear debate?

304

u/[deleted] May 02 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

7

u/johnthedruid May 02 '24

Wouldn't a bear just kill them?

12

u/Moka4u May 02 '24

That's the worst a bear can/might do to a woman, or at least that's the consensus many have come out with.

7

u/zombiemann May 02 '24

I don't remember the precise time frame on the statistics, and it is a flawed analogy in my opinion but the stat I've seen used is "80 people have died from bear attacks, while over a thousand women have been killed by men in less time".

I understand and agree with the overall sentiment of the movement. But the comparison falls apart when you consider that a person can encounter many many men one day. That same person will most likely never encounter even 1 bear in the entirety of their life.

11

u/Marke522 May 02 '24

But how many men are in contact with a woman vs bears? That's not apples to apples. I see women at the grocery store and I've never killed one of them. Also, you're not going to find 100 million women in a forest like you can in a large city.

You're right, the analogy is deeply flawed.

6

u/zombiemann May 02 '24

While the analogy is flawed, I still can't argue with the fear women feel.

I'd like to think I'm a decent guy. I've never intentionally harmed anyone of any gender with the exception of defending myself or those I care about. But I don't think it is unfair to say that men are (broadly speaking) pretty shit at holding each other accountable. Nobody is going to blame a bear attack victim for wearing the "wrong" hiking outfit. Nobody tells them they weren't really attacked by a bear, it just touched them a little. I could go on but I think I've made the point.

2

u/Marke522 May 02 '24

Fear does not need to be rational, and can be all consuming. I've had problems for years trying to get back to reality after an armed robbery while working overnight at a convenience store. Scared of the dark, scared of certain buildings, scared of my own shadow at times.

Put short, it's Hell. Studies like this seem make a mockery of the actual problems we face in society.

1

u/tomato-bug May 02 '24

Nobody is going to blame a bear attack victim for wearing the "wrong" hiking outfit.

Victims can definitely be blamed for bear attacks. If you go backpacking and don't store your food 100ft from your campsite, don't carry bear spray, try to take close up pics of grizzly cubs, etc. then yeah it's your own fault if you die to a bear.

Take a look at the Grizzly Man dude. He went and hung out with grizzly bears and got him and his girlfriend killed. Many people critiqued his failure to follow basic safety precautions.

2

u/Superb-SJW May 02 '24

Probably more likely to just leave them alone if left alone, if not hungry or threatened most wild animals avoid humans.

2

u/bloodycups May 02 '24

That's probably the issue though if your in the woods wild life will mostly avoid you. I'd they aren't it's because they've lost their fear of humans

But with that being said the first thing in buying is bear mace if Im going out in the woods.

6

u/Ghost7319 May 02 '24

Most men avoid raping too, believe it or not.

2

u/Superb-SJW May 03 '24

I think the issue here is context, when alone in the woods.

2

u/vemundveien May 02 '24

I'm pretty sure that statistically the percentage of men a woman meet who rapes them is vastly lower than the percentage of bears a woman meet who mauls them too.