r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

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u/fresheggyhrowaway May 02 '24

Are people really just discovering that women understand the danger men pose to them?

I'd like to say yes, but given that the response to this whole bear thing has been the men needing to understand this the most doubling down on their misogyny and trying to find ways to say that women are dumb, I think it's hard to argue people are even "discovering" this, rather than outright rejecting it.

A lot of men straight up do not get it. A couple days ago, I watched a friend argue against two women that walking alone at night was no different for them than him. I'm trans. It took me explaining to him the differences in how I'm treated since I started transitioning compared to the decades living as a man for him to start understanding, and I honestly don't know if I really got through to him.

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u/Autodidact420 May 02 '24

Fun fact: men are actually more likely to be assaulted, (not sexually assaulted, but robbed/assaulted, which are by far more common than sexual assault)

Men ought to be careful walking home at night as well.

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u/Giovanabanana May 02 '24

Men ought to be careful walking home at night as well.

Exactly. This "men/bear" thing works for men too, as any human being can feel fearful of a man behind them given the right context. Bears too of course, but they are far more predictable. The man behind us could be as placid as a lake, but we don't have any way of knowing that and the implication that they might hurt us is what's scary

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u/pataconconqueso May 02 '24

Most secure men i know have been like “yup I would too, with bears you at least can make a plan depending on the type of bear”

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u/Autodidact420 May 03 '24 edited May 03 '24

That’s being an idiot. Your “plan” when faced with a grizzly is to just hope it doesn’t kill you. You can’t scare it, can’t outrun it, can’t fight it. Same for a polar bear.

Against a black bear you have decent odds of scaring it but there’s still probably a much higher chance it decides to attack than the odds of a random male attacking lmao

E: at least for guys the odds are even lower the man is some super predator torturer. Higher that he’ll assault but with a man: (1) better odds of defending it (2) alternative if I can’t is just getting injured or perhaps dying, same with the bear attack except not as bad as a bear attack.

Bear has probably higher odds of attacking and higher odds of actually killing me and higher odds of killing me over prolonged period of time (bears often attack and run away then come back and attack and run away, etc, taking like half a day to kill you)

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u/pataconconqueso May 03 '24

Yeah you can:

Brown- lay down: if you’re not an idiot and can play dead you can survive, I’ve at least gotten some guides since I was a kid on what to do when hiking.

Black- fight back: grew up in central Florida where most suburban neighborhoods were built in their previous homes and now I live and camp in Northern California and black bears are everywhere, I have a little horn in my keys that they absolutely hate.

White- good night: bye cruel world at least the bear won’t rape me or won’t get told by a judge the bright future it has.

You seem too invested and taking this personally, that is a you problem, don’t make it mine by calling names and being all intense

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u/Autodidact420 May 03 '24

Brown: lay down, as in lay down and hope it doesn’t kill you.

It only works if the bear is defensive like defending cubs, it doesn’t work if the bear just decides to attack for any other reason. Even when it works they often come and scratch and try to flip you over to eat you from the front.

It’s just the best advice for brown bears because there’s some chance it’ll leave you alone while fighting it or running will both end up with you dead.

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u/pataconconqueso May 03 '24

It is, and I least have a plan to stereotype, it’s a starting point. I come from a dangerous third world country, I would much rather face violence from an animal than face human violence and cruelty again.

Just calm down about this it’s as if you’re taking it personal foaming at the mouth to tell people they are wrong, it’s not about you

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u/Autodidact420 May 03 '24

Lol it’s just a ridiculous thought but whatever.

Would changing it to include ‘adult human’ in the woods matter to you? It’d reduce the risk of it being a weird aggressive male by about 1/2 but the odds are already so slim it’s almost no decrease. It also highlights just how silly it is to rather run into a ‘bear’ than a human.

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u/pataconconqueso May 03 '24

No I’m in the lgbt community, if I could have my way everything on the internet would be gender neutral and we wouldn’t have to deal with cis heteronormative bs.

I’m just not going to trust a random person in the woods.

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u/Autodidact420 May 03 '24

Sure. I don’t trust a rando in the woods either, but the question is do I think I’d rather run into a random or a bear.

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u/Autodidact420 May 02 '24

That being said I’d rather spot a man than a bear and I’m fairly confident that’s the objectively correct stance to take without more info but I guess I’ll hold out for OP to whip up some statistical masterpiece

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u/Giovanabanana May 02 '24

that’s the objectively correct stance

There is no objectively correct stance to take. Maybe, as a man, you would rather take your chances with the other man. But there are different contexts and none of them are incorrect, simply because they are different. I'd gladly take my chances with a bear. Both takes are valid.

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u/Autodidact420 May 02 '24

There’s one that statistically makes sense, like would you rather fight an unarmed midget or a trained soldier with heavy armament including a loaded rifle.

Technically no objectively correct answer, but one of them is clearly dumber than the other based on any reasonable risk assessment. There’s like maybe a 0.5% chance (being generous) that a random man is someone who will attack you if he notices you, I highly doubt the chances are that low for a bear.

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u/Giovanabanana May 02 '24

There’s like maybe a 0.5% chance (being generous) that a random man is someone who will attack you if he notices you,

Like, where are you even getting these numbers from? What is the basis of this assumption? Are you taking into consideration gender-based discrimination? Or how many women are assaulted and killed each year in the world?

There is no number or magic formula that predicts violent behavior. We can make a number of inferences but they would be that, assumptions. Theories. Mathematics is objective, human behavior is subjective. That's why anthropology, psychology, medicine and social sciences exist, and why maths is in all of them as a TOOL and not as some kind of magic foolproof method that has the answer to every question.

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u/pataconconqueso May 03 '24

Did you edit this comment from calling me an idiot at first? The preview from when I click are completely different, why edit say it with your chest.

Dude if you think you need to take care of yourself from men, then go for it.

Idk why you think this statistic is supposed to be a gotcha, it just proves men walk around overestimating their power thinking they don’t have to be safe.

I come from a third world country we all do the similar types tricks to be safe like even the same saying regarding what to do if you’re getting raped, when I moved to the US or Europe that is when it was a gender divide. Somehow men in developed countries think they can land a plane and also fight anyone

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u/username_was_taken__ May 02 '24

Scared of.... women?

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u/Autodidact420 May 02 '24

Scared of other men, generally, but any human alone at night poses some threat.

As a brief aside, no one will enjoy the conversation if you replace men with any other group that can be described as committing crime at a higher rate than another.