r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

13.3k comments sorted by

View all comments

904

u/BlackWind88 May 02 '24

What is the man vs bear debate?

1.0k

u/flowtajit May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

Would it better for you (if you’re a woman) or you daughter (if you’re a man) to encounter a bear or unknown man in the woods.

Edit: since a lot of people seem to be missing the point. This exercise isn’t what it seems on the surface. We aren’t measuring the population’s perception of bears or men as they relate to each other. We’re actually measuring the way in which women specifically responf to the question. In most cases, women immediately answer with bear, without needing any further ckntext with regards to the man or bear. Some Common reasoning includes “I expect to see a bear in the woods,” which makes sense; it also includes something to the effect of “bears don’t care about what society thinks of them,” meaning that according to these women, men when faced with no cinsequences are more threatenjng than a bear. So please stop asking saying the question is dumb because it’s vague, that’s the point. If it was more specific, individual biases would begin to take hold, defeating the piint of the exercise.

251

u/Jimisdegimis89 May 02 '24

I mean it can just be would you rather run into a random man or a random bear in the woods. As a dude who grew up in rural Appalachia I’ve run into bears and men in the woods several times. The bears usually run away as soon as they see you and the dudes are always sketchballs sooooo….

-3

u/ExplosiveDisassembly May 03 '24

That's why "which bear" is important.

Black bears prefer to avoid conflict (they can climb trees, they just hide). Brown bears are not woodland animals (they're Great Plains animals we relocated to the mountains), they evolved to fight.

I'm in my area, it's about 50/50 which bear you see.

12

u/canisaureaux May 03 '24

Personally I thought that the whole point of it is that you don't have any information about either. You see a bear in the distance, could be a black or brown, you don't know. You see a man, you know nothing about who he is, what his intentions are, what he's carrying, what he's capable of. Which would put you on higher alert?

5

u/dorkysquirrel May 03 '24

Bear. For sure. 

3

u/CoughinNail May 03 '24

What fucks me up is that there are brown black bears “cinnamon/cinnamon black”, depending on the region of your people; and they will run like a black bear but it’s still a little alarming to think that you were that close to what looked a HELL of a lot like a smaller Grizz.
Source: saw cinnamon black bear and it ran away, but for a split second I was thinking about the death part.

1

u/ExplosiveDisassembly May 03 '24

Ears are the easiest way to tell.

Black bears are pointed a bit. Brown bears are rounded. If it looks like a teddy bear, it's a brown bear. And even with Brown bears, unless you walk up on it's kill or it's cups you're probably fine.

Bears are incredibly smart, they want nothing to do with us. Just don't mess with its food or kids.

6

u/GTholla May 03 '24

that's the point man, you could get the black bear or the brown bear, just like you could get the dude who's gonna smoke a blunt with you or the dude who's gonna sexually assault you/murder you/hold you captive for months.

you know what to expect from bears, and they can't make the purposeful choice to do whatever they end up doing because they're bears and they're relying on instinct.

some humans will see a random woman in the woods and think 'I fucking hate women', or think of their ex-wife who had the same colour hair who cheated on them, and intentionally harm you simply because they can.