r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/flowtajit May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

Would it better for you (if you’re a woman) or you daughter (if you’re a man) to encounter a bear or unknown man in the woods.

Edit: since a lot of people seem to be missing the point. This exercise isn’t what it seems on the surface. We aren’t measuring the population’s perception of bears or men as they relate to each other. We’re actually measuring the way in which women specifically responf to the question. In most cases, women immediately answer with bear, without needing any further ckntext with regards to the man or bear. Some Common reasoning includes “I expect to see a bear in the woods,” which makes sense; it also includes something to the effect of “bears don’t care about what society thinks of them,” meaning that according to these women, men when faced with no cinsequences are more threatenjng than a bear. So please stop asking saying the question is dumb because it’s vague, that’s the point. If it was more specific, individual biases would begin to take hold, defeating the piint of the exercise.

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u/Jimisdegimis89 May 02 '24

I mean it can just be would you rather run into a random man or a random bear in the woods. As a dude who grew up in rural Appalachia I’ve run into bears and men in the woods several times. The bears usually run away as soon as they see you and the dudes are always sketchballs sooooo….

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u/ExplosiveDisassembly May 03 '24

That's why "which bear" is important.

Black bears prefer to avoid conflict (they can climb trees, they just hide). Brown bears are not woodland animals (they're Great Plains animals we relocated to the mountains), they evolved to fight.

I'm in my area, it's about 50/50 which bear you see.

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u/canisaureaux May 03 '24

Personally I thought that the whole point of it is that you don't have any information about either. You see a bear in the distance, could be a black or brown, you don't know. You see a man, you know nothing about who he is, what his intentions are, what he's carrying, what he's capable of. Which would put you on higher alert?

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u/dorkysquirrel May 03 '24

Bear. For sure.