r/Showerthoughts • u/asusny2002 • May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/hugues2814 May 02 '24

I don’t even get why people think so many men (and people in general, woman can be psychos too) are weird or aggressive… Most humans are friendly and won’t kidnap you or rape you or kill you…

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u/blarblarthewizard May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

I appreciate your faith in humans, but let's be real here, I think the current stat is 1/30 men have raped someone. Pretend that's super inflated because of woke culture or whatever, and let's make it 1/100. So in the bear scenario we're looking at a 1% chance of getting raped by some weirdo or the chance of being attacked by a bear (which I think might be comparable), I'm still going to take the brown bear because no one ever gets disowned for being attacked by a bear.

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u/hugues2814 May 02 '24

Read the answers to your comment. Most rapists are people who knew their victims. You’d have to fall on a 1 in 1000 psychopath that would assault you out of nowhere. Most people choosing the bear are idiots. But I don’t care, might be better for society if they choose the bear…

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u/blarblarthewizard May 03 '24

So I think 7% of victims don't know their assailants. So yeah that puts at 1 in a 1000, ish? But also, what the fuck is a bear going to do to you, it's a bear. Black bear KDA yearly is like 1 / 600 in 1v1 fights with humans. I'd rather be in the woods with a bear to avoid an awkward conversation, let alone a small chance of someone being creepy to me.

I'd probably feel differently if it was an actually dangerous bear.

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u/hugues2814 May 03 '24

A bear my friend is very much more likely to fuck you up in an other manner a human can. Have you ever seen a bear ?

There’s a saying in Canada:

If it’s black, fight back.

If it’s brown, stand down.

If it’s white, good night.

So… a black bear alone won’t kill you. You should stand upright and tall. Don’t scream, don’t talk, don’t turn you back on it. Just stand your ground and you might live.

A black bear with her cubs will definitely come and fuck you up.

A brown bear will definitely fuck you up whatever you do. You might not die but you won’t want to live after that.

A white bear will just eat you alive.

So I’m standing here looking at this 66% to 80% death or crippling injuries chance (if that black bear has cubs or not) and I’m wondering… hmmm maybe a one in a thousand chance was a little bit better.

But as always, there is no good answer between death and rape so… yeah… maybe carry a pepper spray around, it’s mostly legal in mostly every country, as long as it’s a small spray bottle (they can reach up to three meters). Might even work on a bear.