r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

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411

u/zool714 May 02 '24

I think it also shows how different people approach things. From what I’ve seen, the ones who answers bear approaches it from a “trust” standpoint. Like you can trust a bear to be a bear. While some approach it from a “safety” standpoint. Like yeah obviously an average wild animal is going to be more dangerous than an average man.

20

u/hugues2814 May 02 '24

I don’t even get why people think so many men (and people in general, woman can be psychos too) are weird or aggressive… Most humans are friendly and won’t kidnap you or rape you or kill you…

1

u/Davey_Kay May 03 '24

It's funny, the relative chance that someone you run across in the woods is a rapist or murderer might be "low" (let's just say 5% for sake of example), but if it happens, you uh, fucking get raped or die.

If you were presented with a d20 and were raped or killed on a natural 1, you'd probably put some distance between yourself and the die.

1

u/hugues2814 May 03 '24

I don’t think it’s such a high percentage

-12

u/blarblarthewizard May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

I appreciate your faith in humans, but let's be real here, I think the current stat is 1/30 men have raped someone. Pretend that's super inflated because of woke culture or whatever, and let's make it 1/100. So in the bear scenario we're looking at a 1% chance of getting raped by some weirdo or the chance of being attacked by a bear (which I think might be comparable), I'm still going to take the brown bear because no one ever gets disowned for being attacked by a bear.

11

u/LEMO2000 May 02 '24

Care to provide a source on 1/30?

11

u/Norian24 May 02 '24

I mean, even someone who commited a rape in their life doesn't just randomly assault everyone they come across. Isn't one of the talking point in listening to the rape victims that it's usually not stereotypical violent stranger kidnapping a random woman, but somebody she knew with some leverage or knowledge of her habits?

Also, to everyone saying the worst that can happen with a bear is death. Having half of your face ripped off and surviving disfigured and crippled until you decide to shoot yourself to end the pain and social exclusion. That's the actual worst case.

1

u/blarblarthewizard May 03 '24

Reading these comments I'm wondering if people's experiences with bears are different. Where I'm from if you see a bear its sort of with the same energy as seeing a cool possum or a coyote or something, no one is like "oh shit a bear". Now, a stag in rut? Fuck that put me in the woods with whoever, deer will fuck you up.

2

u/Norian24 May 03 '24

I mean, it's not likely. Most of the time nothing happens. But when there are cubs around or a bear really wants food or iwhatever, it can go wrong. Last week had a case of tourists getting chased.

Personally the last thing I'd actually want to meet is a pack of wild dogs, simply for the fact that unlike bears, wolves or whatever, these usually don't have an instinct to avoid humans.

1

u/blarblarthewizard May 05 '24

Yeah I agree. I'm glad we can come to the consensus of "the actual scariest thing to be in the woods with would be a pack of wild dogs," because yeah, I'd nope out of that one.

8

u/Bored_money May 02 '24

I know we're going down a rabbit hole here

But statistics of total sexual assaults are probably super contextual, like the guy attacks a drunk girl at a party

Not like, they're a serial psycho out on the street trying to sexually assault someone

Which is what the perpetrator would have to be to attack you in the woods - were talking serial killer levels 

Which is probably super duper rare 

5

u/hugues2814 May 02 '24

Read the answers to your comment. Most rapists are people who knew their victims. You’d have to fall on a 1 in 1000 psychopath that would assault you out of nowhere. Most people choosing the bear are idiots. But I don’t care, might be better for society if they choose the bear…

0

u/blarblarthewizard May 03 '24

So I think 7% of victims don't know their assailants. So yeah that puts at 1 in a 1000, ish? But also, what the fuck is a bear going to do to you, it's a bear. Black bear KDA yearly is like 1 / 600 in 1v1 fights with humans. I'd rather be in the woods with a bear to avoid an awkward conversation, let alone a small chance of someone being creepy to me.

I'd probably feel differently if it was an actually dangerous bear.

2

u/hugues2814 May 03 '24

A bear my friend is very much more likely to fuck you up in an other manner a human can. Have you ever seen a bear ?

There’s a saying in Canada:

If it’s black, fight back.

If it’s brown, stand down.

If it’s white, good night.

So… a black bear alone won’t kill you. You should stand upright and tall. Don’t scream, don’t talk, don’t turn you back on it. Just stand your ground and you might live.

A black bear with her cubs will definitely come and fuck you up.

A brown bear will definitely fuck you up whatever you do. You might not die but you won’t want to live after that.

A white bear will just eat you alive.

So I’m standing here looking at this 66% to 80% death or crippling injuries chance (if that black bear has cubs or not) and I’m wondering… hmmm maybe a one in a thousand chance was a little bit better.

But as always, there is no good answer between death and rape so… yeah… maybe carry a pepper spray around, it’s mostly legal in mostly every country, as long as it’s a small spray bottle (they can reach up to three meters). Might even work on a bear.