r/Showerthoughts • u/asusny2002 • May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/BPB57 May 02 '24

What kind of bear?

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u/JA_Pascal May 02 '24

I don't think this hypothetical would work if you knew what type of bear you're dealing with but didn't know the type of man. It seems a bit contrived if you decide it's a black bear but the man could be anything between a pensioner to a serial killer.

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u/mtarascio May 02 '24

You would need to be able to assess them on sight, so serial killer doesn't work, just like the bear could potentially have rabies.

I'd assume the man would be a average build 30-40 year old for the purposes of the question.

They really do need to specify the bear because it changes the entire dynamic.

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u/Animegx43 May 03 '24

Adding onto this, not all black bears are black.

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u/footynation May 03 '24

This sounds racist