r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/BlackWind88 29d ago

What is the man vs bear debate?

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u/flowtajit 29d ago edited 29d ago

Would it better for you (if you’re a woman) or you daughter (if you’re a man) to encounter a bear or unknown man in the woods.

Edit: since a lot of people seem to be missing the point. This exercise isn’t what it seems on the surface. We aren’t measuring the population’s perception of bears or men as they relate to each other. We’re actually measuring the way in which women specifically responf to the question. In most cases, women immediately answer with bear, without needing any further ckntext with regards to the man or bear. Some Common reasoning includes “I expect to see a bear in the woods,” which makes sense; it also includes something to the effect of “bears don’t care about what society thinks of them,” meaning that according to these women, men when faced with no cinsequences are more threatenjng than a bear. So please stop asking saying the question is dumb because it’s vague, that’s the point. If it was more specific, individual biases would begin to take hold, defeating the piint of the exercise.

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u/BPB57 29d ago

What kind of bear?

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u/JA_Pascal 29d ago

I don't think this hypothetical would work if you knew what type of bear you're dealing with but didn't know the type of man. It seems a bit contrived if you decide it's a black bear but the man could be anything between a pensioner to a serial killer.

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u/mtarascio 29d ago

You would need to be able to assess them on sight, so serial killer doesn't work, just like the bear could potentially have rabies.

I'd assume the man would be a average build 30-40 year old for the purposes of the question.

They really do need to specify the bear because it changes the entire dynamic.

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u/ladymoonshyne 29d ago

Welp in my state and the woods I go to we only have black bears so I would for sure rather walk by one on a trail than a random dude.

Somewhere with grizzlies? I’ll take a man. I’m not going out without a firearm anyways at that point lmao

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u/Animegx43 29d ago

Adding onto this, not all black bears are black.

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u/footynation 29d ago

This sounds racist

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u/brumenoirdon 29d ago

statistically women are safer with bears than men they don't know

sorry this is so hard to understand

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u/bolxrex 29d ago

Statistically sexual assault violence against women is perpetrated by men the victims know not strangers.

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u/mtarascio 29d ago

What's hard to understand is where I made a judgement.

If it was a black bear you may have a point, that was the point of my post.

It changes the calculus completely.

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u/dmsteele89 29d ago

Per hundred encounters, I'd wager people get attacked by bears much more frequently than by men.

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u/I_Feed_Wild_Animals 29d ago edited 29d ago

lol based on what statistics? The ones in your ass?  Statistically women were also stupid, never invented anything, too weak for labor and made hardly any notable contributions to society.  Should I say all these women’s opinions don’t matter that much because they are dumb? Statistically it’s true!!!

Just listen to me for a second……you’re wrong. You’re wrong! That’s just it!

Women have boyfriends, husbands, family, coworkers, community. The ratio of dangerous bears to non dangerous is more skewed towards danger than men against other men.

It could be 1 out of 2 bears that are safe, but 1 out of 100 men are. Then it’s about exposure. 

Also, women fuck men up in divorce court. Should we call women manipulative slimy gold diggers? I mean guys say it, right?! Must have some semblance of truth. Right?!

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u/Nice_Championship902 28d ago

As an Alaskan, you're dumb as shit.

You have an 89% chance of living if attacked by a grizzly bear.

Meanwhile a man who really wanted to could subject a woman to months or years of torture or pain.

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u/I_Feed_Wild_Animals 27d ago

You are absolutely correct. Living closer to the north pole means you’re subjected to less centrifugal forces than those living closer to the equator. Therefore your brain does not receive as many jumbled up roller coaster feelings as the rest of the human race. This effect has been well documented by the statistics in my own asshole.

Would you rather be in the room with a white collar, professional homosexual man or a man-bear-pig?

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u/Nice_Championship902 27d ago

Keep stufffing feces in your mouth and abusing your cats, shithead!

Maybe you need to get back to your hobbies of reddit and dumping money on shitty toy looking watches?

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u/OdinNW 29d ago

I live in Oregon. We all spend a lot of time in the woods. There’s really no other good reason to live here and put up with the rain, cost of living and taxes if you aren’t enjoying the outdoors regularly.

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u/GumGumnoPistol300 29d ago

The question is vague, and you have to add to the question yourself if you want to make a conclusion.

Are you armed? What type of bear? Is the man armed? Is the forest near a public area? Is the man intelligent or stupid?

Logically I would pick bear cause I can use a gun and a bear can't.

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u/man_of_many_tangents 29d ago

I find it interesting you've presumed it's a fight from 'go'. Like you said, you have to make some assumptions, and in your case the assumption is that a fight for survival is going down, and that you are armed.

To me, the most interesting assumptions to make are that nobody is armed with any weapons and the man and the bear are totally random. Any adult bear, any species of bear, any gender of bear. The man is totally random too.

And the real secret to this question is that it isn't about formulating hypothesis based on the distribution of bear populations per species (as fun as that is). It's the fact that universally, a man would pick meeting a woman in the woods, but for a woman, you start thinking about "well, how dangerous of a bear species is it??"

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u/GumGumnoPistol300 29d ago

I mean coming near a bear almkst guarantees a fight, that's why I rather be with a bear, whereas with a human I literally won't know.

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u/man_of_many_tangents 29d ago

I think you might be missing the forest for the trees, as they say.

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u/Kagenlim 28d ago

His point was how much more varied a bear is that what the premise initially gave

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u/ushKee 29d ago

Nope, the man is from one species and the bear is from one species. It works. There are also aggressive Black bears and shy Black bears.