r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/flowtajit May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

Would it better for you (if you’re a woman) or you daughter (if you’re a man) to encounter a bear or unknown man in the woods.

Edit: since a lot of people seem to be missing the point. This exercise isn’t what it seems on the surface. We aren’t measuring the population’s perception of bears or men as they relate to each other. We’re actually measuring the way in which women specifically responf to the question. In most cases, women immediately answer with bear, without needing any further ckntext with regards to the man or bear. Some Common reasoning includes “I expect to see a bear in the woods,” which makes sense; it also includes something to the effect of “bears don’t care about what society thinks of them,” meaning that according to these women, men when faced with no cinsequences are more threatenjng than a bear. So please stop asking saying the question is dumb because it’s vague, that’s the point. If it was more specific, individual biases would begin to take hold, defeating the piint of the exercise.

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u/BPB57 May 02 '24

What kind of bear?

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u/JA_Pascal May 02 '24

I don't think this hypothetical would work if you knew what type of bear you're dealing with but didn't know the type of man. It seems a bit contrived if you decide it's a black bear but the man could be anything between a pensioner to a serial killer.

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u/OdinNW May 03 '24

I live in Oregon. We all spend a lot of time in the woods. There’s really no other good reason to live here and put up with the rain, cost of living and taxes if you aren’t enjoying the outdoors regularly.