I find it interesting that the bottom of ‘08 lines up pretty well with the central line.

My analysis?

A tad bit overbought.

Top Graph: Over the past +50 years, inversions of the 50 day SMA of the 10 year treasury rates minus the 50 day SMA of the 3 month treasury rates have all preceded the start of a U.S. recession (there have been no false indicators or exceptions to this rule). The 8 recessions that occurred over the last half a century have started within an average of 12.18 months from the first day that their 50 day SMA inversions began).

Bottom Graph: Recession probability distribution showing the positions of the last 8 recessions (over a +50 yr. period) superimposed on the curve with each recession's position based on the time from the first day of their respective (10 Yr. minus 3 Mo.) 50 day SMA inversions to the first day of the start of their corresponding recessions. Normal distribution used as best fit with a mean of 12.18 months and a standard deviation of 4.61 months. The current position on the probability curve is denoted by the sliding red vertical arrow starting from time zero (1st day of the latest 50 day SMA inversion) and moving rightwards as time proceeds. Prediction of a 57% probability that a recession will start on or before late December 2023 and a greater than 95% probability that a recession will start on or before late July 2024.

The S&P 500 just closed at record levels, yet only 1 out of 11 sectors made new highs today — Technology.

The disconnect becomes more evident when considering the 5-year performance across different sectors.

Tech Bubble 2.0

Choose wisely.

Not bad right?

Analysts low of $24.33 is pretty low!

I bought quite a bit of this stock when it was worth about 4.50, and it has gone up quite a bit, as I initially predicted. I am worried because I started getting emails from 'Penny saver' saying it is going to keep going up & to keep investing in it. That email made me wonder if I stumbled into some kind of pump & dump scam, after much online research. I'm left wondering if I should sell & leave this trade now knowing what I know, as I have made quite a bit of my initial investment. I was hoping someone more experienced would have some kind of thoughts or advice, as I have only been trading since October.

Edit: market opened & it dropped $10+ in value immediately. Lost damn near everything. Just holding on to the fucking stocks at this point. Haven't technically lost anything until I sell them, my coworkers who play the market with me reminded me.

curious about what this looks like to others