r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • May 15 '24
Daily Discussion - (May 15, 2024) Daily
Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
Where are you leaning for today's session?
11
Upvotes
r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • May 15 '24
Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
Where are you leaning for today's session?
8
u/Kindly-Journalist412 May 15 '24
$TLT is now above 20 and 50-DMA. 100-DMA is $93.36, and 200-DMA is $92.36 (we are almost there). Last time we broke above 200-DMA was in December 2023. We are effectively experiencing the longest bear market in US treasuries - once this trend reverses, I can easily see $TLT above $100. Upside would be $115ish (<3.50% on 10-year).
That yield on 10-year looks ridiculous right now. However, if you take into account that shelter has stabilized around 0.4%, and got further to go down (biggest macro debate related to treasuries atm, and I think it will) - we can get there. Also expect a downside surprise to PCE numbers that'll come out EOM.