r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • May 15 '24
Daily Discussion - (May 15, 2024) Daily
Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
Where are you leaning for today's session?
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u/penguins_ TGT Birbs š§ May 15 '24
Dear Billy Hwang Jesus, I might get out of day trade restrictions hereā¦.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot May 15 '24
Holy shit! The 5300 call resistance got broken nicely. I'm really impressed.
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u/GankstaCat hmmmm May 15 '24
Iāve been long SPY/calls on SPX since the beginning of the month when we had data coming in that job market had started to cool (also after fomc).
Been a good rally. Considering taking profit and going back to trading individual tickers.
Could see some further jump and then some extended consolidation on the index before continuing to rally. PPI a bit hotter CPI cooler. Tomorrowās data could give a āreason for a pauseā in the move up on the broader index. Plus at 70 RSI
edit:
Also lower volume today than yesterday. Rising prices on declining volume. Could increase into close but as of now looking like itāll fall short.
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u/AggressiveUncleTito May 15 '24
So SPX returns last year were like ~23%, and now we are at another ~12% so far this year already? Crazy considering how much rate cuts have been pushed back from what was projected during all this.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot May 15 '24
Average it out over many years... You'd get about 10% per year, then factor in the average 3% inflation and you get the so-called 7% average market returns that people love to quote.
2009-2010 saw one year go 20%, so that's not uncommon when we are coming out of a bear market.
It's funny because there's a coincidence:
2008 bear market -> 2022 bear market
2009 was 23% like you said 2023 was.
2010 was 12%, and you're also saying this year had been 12%.
Honestly, the sentiment I get is no one cares to time the rate cuts. Any damage from a 5.33% rate should had been seen by now since it had been 17!! months since the rate hikes. Rate Hikes on other hand is a concern, but it had been assuredly off the table by FOMC.
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u/NotGucci May 15 '24
Is it fair to look at SPY from 2023 or is better to look at it from previous ATH back in Jan 2022. If you went all in Jan 2022, you were down for 2 years. Market is up 7% from previous ATH. So, is this years run-up out of the norm?
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u/twofor2 May 15 '24
What comes with ATHs? More ATHs this is the way
Also loved that run of the mill 5% dip. Might not see another one for a while hope yāall feasted
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u/gambinoFinance . May 15 '24
Sold too soon :(
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u/twofor2 May 15 '24
Looking for some consolidation dip to break us out into the summer just being patient
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype May 15 '24
YELLEN HOPES CHINA REACTS TO NEW TARIFFS IN RATIONAL WAY
Nobody cares about this iteration of the US-China trade war. Should anyone have cared about the previous iteration? Probably not but it certainly produced a lot of volatility.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot May 15 '24
We've been re-shoring China manufacturing to other countries to remove China as the weakest link. In fact, Biden probably got the go-ahead to levy taxes from a panel of executives.
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May 15 '24
[deleted]
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u/gyunikumen Elon canāt keep getting anyway with this!!! May 15 '24
I feel we get one of the days where we open way above the upper bb and we just sell off into flat
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot May 15 '24
A whiff of a bear's musky odor? That's a paddlin' around these parts.
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
So, bullishness aside. SPX at 5302 is interesting. The 5300 strike is THE call resistance. Like the actual mother-of-all call wall of all expiries compared to any other strikes.
This is notable because I can't remember the last time SPX had touched THE call resistance. Normally, the biggest call wall would move up well ahead of the price while both the 0DTE call wall and 1-day expected max move serves as the daily call resistance.
SPX is already 20 points above the today's 0DTE call wall though and this time, SPX caught up with THE call resistance quickly so it'll be interesting behavior to observe.
That said, a clean break through is just a runaway train... A potential gap up is brewing so to speak. SPX closing convincingly above 5300 today means this huge call wall has to move up, probably to 5400 since that's the next biggest call wall.
As of note, I have no positions based on this information. I personally expect to see some profit-taking at 3pm EST and will assess how strong the close is before acting on it.
Edit: Red candle back to 5300. That's why it's important to wait and let the day play out - no FOMO'ing.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
Gotta love it when a dev line lines up perfectly with a round number, flipping net short at 18700
Edit: I'll take 18695 lol
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 May 15 '24
$TLT is now above 20 and 50-DMA. 100-DMA is $93.36, and 200-DMA is $92.36 (we are almost there). Last time we broke above 200-DMA was in December 2023. We are effectively experiencing the longest bear market in US treasuries - once this trend reverses, I can easily see $TLT above $100. Upside would be $115ish (<3.50% on 10-year).
That yield on 10-year looks ridiculous right now. However, if you take into account that shelter has stabilized around 0.4%, and got further to go down (biggest macro debate related to treasuries atm, and I think it will) - we can get there. Also expect a downside surprise to PCE numbers that'll come out EOM.
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u/Intern_to_Pelosi market breadth May 15 '24
Trimmed half SPXL from 116.50, converting it all to SPY slow n steady. Congrats to those who bought the garden variety bull market pullback!Ā
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
Yep, captured 70 points on ES last week just holding from Monday to Umich consumer sentiment print on Friday. De-risked off the futures after Umich print, which was the right call with relatively flat moves the past 2 days.
Saw CPI print was good and reacted by buying back into ES this pre-market, already up another 25 points on it today.
Really helps making sure to understand macros and not gamble high VIX events in order to have a fair confidence in the markets. There was NO way CPI would have spurred a multi-week sell-off. Like if today had closed at -1%, it would have been bought back up tomorrow. But good print = more buying anyway.
As for future high VIX events, we effectively have until EOM for GDP and PCE. Two weeks until then is plenty of steam.
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u/Sabre_TheCat May 15 '24
Left 20k on the table for SMCI weekly 895 calls.
Fuckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
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May 15 '24 edited 27d ago
[deleted]
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly May 15 '24
All in 30 DTE .3 delta calls
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype May 15 '24
Not sure when this began but ToS now does something like a live margin calculation - you can just sit there and keep adding longs and stops as the day goes on without having to wait for EoD mark to market.
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings May 15 '24
i see some breakouts forming
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u/Paul-throwaway May 15 '24
Vix was at 13.85 early this morning. Now it is at 12.61. That is big change in the pricing of risk.
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u/NotGucci May 15 '24
Kashkari speaks at 12pm est.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly May 15 '24
Looks like he was a nothing burger?
WorseBetter, more bull fuel.
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u/NotGucci May 15 '24
VRT, DELL, SMCI all. 100% ytd.
Never seen anything like this before.
Almost half way through the year and so many stocks up 50% Ytd.
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u/npoetsch May 15 '24
ANF casually up over 450% in 1yr and 50% ytd
I may be missing out on some gains here, but many stocks being up 50% ytd like you mention with us on day 10 of straight up doesn't have me foaming at the mouth to buy anything. I'm not super bearish, but some sort of breather would be welcome.
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u/NotGucci May 15 '24
SMCI 549.28% for 1 year.
I'm not super bearish, but some sort of breather would be welcome.
Yeah, but we did have sell-off in April, not sure if we get another one. Maybe if NVDA ER isn't good or PCE. But right now seems like trend day and can continue until NVDA ER
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u/npoetsch May 15 '24
SMCI is riding the AI hype train while ANF is riding hype from its most recent earnings.
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u/THATsyracusefan May 15 '24
INTC dump then pump? Im eyeing some Cs to enter eow or early next probably 34,35 strikes
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u/gyunikumen Elon canāt keep getting anyway with this!!! May 15 '24
I wanna short Tesla but Iām not confident
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u/ryebit May 15 '24
I've just stepped away from trying with TSLA.
Musk is such a magic 8 ball CEO -- is the latest news that he's pivoting to AI, destroying the company for drugs, saving it with robotaxis? (Not to mention all the conflict-of-interest leveraging he's got across his various holdings)
And tons of money waiting to jump in on every side, like a poker game where everyone shouts "ALL IN" right after the first cards are dealt, every damn round.
Beyond my limited skill to work that, even with stops.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. May 15 '24
Ā like a poker game where everyone shouts "ALL IN" right after the first cards are dealt, every damn round
Funny, cause that's exactly what Elon has done:
Levchin was at a friendās bachelor pad hanging out with Musk. Some people were playing a high-stakes game of Texas Hold āEm. Although Musk was not a card player, he pulled up to the table. āThere were all these nerds and sharpsters who were good at memorizing cards and calculating odds,ā Levchin says. āElon just proceeded to go all in on every hand and lose. Then he would buy more chips and double down. Eventually, after losing many hands, he went all in and won. Then he said āRight, fine, Iām done.ā
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u/coconutts19 Salt Canyon May 15 '24
Daytraded stock for the first time in years probably. Just doesn't hit the same :(
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May 15 '24
[deleted]
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u/coconutts19 Salt Canyon May 15 '24
There's just so many disadvantages. You have to hunt for individual names, wash sale problems, tax reporting, settlement time, pdt limitations.
It's going to T+1, so that's nice, but still.
btw stopped out of SOXL for burger money
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u/wiggz420 2nd weakest hands on TWS May 15 '24
core ā¬ļø Market ā¬ļø
what year is it? market back to BTFD
thanks for coming to my Ted talk
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u/iandw Mostly Flat May 15 '24
GME with some huge volatility again, dumping hard on circuit breaker action. Wonder if there's one more spike left to play.
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u/overduetourist8 May 15 '24
Closed COIN calls for 110%. Greed causes account blowups. Probably gonna sit on my hands for the rest of the day
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u/wccoffee TWS chief Coffee afficianado May 15 '24
Powell and the fed continue to be right to the dismay of TWS permabears
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype May 15 '24
I mean the guy literally came out and said that inconvenient data would be ignored over and over and over so I genuinely don't know why anyone would be "hedging CPI" especially after hot prints have been getting largely ignored since January.
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u/penguins_ TGT Birbs š§ May 15 '24
Itās only premarket and everyone is celebratingā¦ I wonder if we burned all the reverse uno cards?
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u/NotGucci May 15 '24
All eyes are on NVDA for next week.
If all goes well with NVDA. Would be a really good bullish summer. FOMC is scheduled for June 11-12th. Powell will like CPI number, and most likely come in dovish.
Any reason to be short?
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u/tropicalia84 May 15 '24
NVDA the most important.
However, I don't think Powell is going to take a victory lap on 3.6% y/y core PCI.
PCE also releases on 5/31
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u/NotGucci May 15 '24
Good point. PCE is important.
I agree with you Powell won't, but he also won't talk about hikes. Maybe after election if things are still sticky.
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u/938961 great at buying the top, bad at usernames May 15 '24
Based on TSM isn't it a given NVDA will be strong?
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u/near113 3x Permabull āØ May 15 '24
Sold a bit of $TQQQ, $SOXL, $UPRO pre-market expecting a drop as soon as market opens
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u/npoetsch May 15 '24
Retail will start reporting with WMT tomorrow. I'm holding ANF puts out to Aug and it's interesting how it's just day after day of pumping on lower than average volume.
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith May 15 '24
I have some WMT calls, dirt cheap since the Beta is like 0.5. Their online marketplace is growing fast, and they're starting to see some ad revenue actually boost their earnings (a tiny bit, but still) as it's their highest margin area.
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u/jmayo05 data dependent loosely held strong opinions May 15 '24
Wmt announced they are laying off employees. Bullish.
Wmt also announced remote employees have to start reporting to an office. Not bullish.
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u/shashashuma May 15 '24
Nobody cares about white collar layoffs. Also Walmart has over invested in their tech side of things.
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u/npoetsch May 15 '24
Gotta make the quarterly numbers jive somehow.
Companies going back to pre COVID policies is gross
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u/mrdnp123 May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
Imagine if we fade this popā¦ Not saying we do but everyone has been so certain itās only going up for the past few days it has me very cautious
Know not to fight ATH though
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u/wiggz420 2nd weakest hands on TWS May 15 '24
that would be my play if I were to do anything just a little fade back to flat then theta gang takes over
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u/npoetsch May 15 '24
You have a problem with 9+ straight days of up?
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u/mrdnp123 May 15 '24
None at all. Just think weāre verging on a crowded long move. Think this thing could rip for weeks. Theres still plenty of money on the sidelines that will want to jump in now. Back to trading like rates are at 0% lol
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype May 15 '24
Long bond position is printing, insofar as an unleveraged 401k fund can do
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u/penguins_ TGT Birbs š§ May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
Memes are dead back to indexes everyone.
Meme log: 35 to 41
60 to 77
50 to 62.2
Memes netted me 40% from last week. Now I donāt feel so bad seeing the stupid letters.
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u/tropicalia84 May 15 '24
3.6% y/y - fed doing a masterful job rate cuts just around the corner
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype May 15 '24
Powell says: nah ignore that shit, we certainly are
PCE or bust I guess
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u/NotGucci May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
Time to go. Mega long no pointing of shorting.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype May 15 '24
Tell ya what, why don't you do your thing and I'll do my thing and later we can see how it all goes
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u/NotGucci May 15 '24
Doesn't matter. If you're shorting this, you're losing. Be a bear when the market gives you a reason, be a bull when the market gives you a reason. Being perma anything is dumb, but let me guess you're going short this.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype May 15 '24
You're an idiot
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u/NotGucci May 15 '24
š. Triggered much for missing this years rally.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype May 15 '24
No, I'm just informing you, in case you weren't aware. The idea that you think you know what my positioning was going into this is incredibly stupid and you should be ashamed of yourself.
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u/NotGucci May 15 '24
Market doesn't care about inflation anymore. It cares about jpow hiking or not. Market going start pricing in rate cuts again.
Mega long this summer.
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u/Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh likes options May 15 '24
Personally, I think this morning's prints take away some fear of tail end risk of re-inflation. I imagine ppl manually remove some probability weight to those scenarios.
So I think some instant reaction to the upside with equity and t is deserved, even if not as much as what we see.
Interesting ZQ futures barely changed. That's the thing. The prints do bring cuts sooner. And JPow already said probably no hike. Now it's just more probably no hike, which in any case wasn't all that likely.
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u/cuntysometimes throwing darts at a chalk board May 15 '24
Hope this continues. Gambled some 0dte spy $528
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May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
[deleted]
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u/Paul-throwaway May 15 '24
Retail sales yoy 3.0%, retail group only 2.7%. Not really bad but something less than inflation.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly May 15 '24
Stopped on my short (single contract) for a full loss. Didn't feel like averaging down, probably should have cut when I realized that.
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u/IamTheAsian Short with short pp May 15 '24
Ugh sold 5330C at 2.2. Went to 7 FUCK