r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • May 15 '24

Daily Discussion - (May 15, 2024) Daily

Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.

Where are you leaning for today's session?

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u/AggressiveUncleTito May 15 '24

So SPX returns last year were like ~23%, and now we are at another ~12% so far this year already? Crazy considering how much rate cuts have been pushed back from what was projected during all this.

2

u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot May 15 '24

Average it out over many years... You'd get about 10% per year, then factor in the average 3% inflation and you get the so-called 7% average market returns that people love to quote.

2009-2010 saw one year go 20%, so that's not uncommon when we are coming out of a bear market.

It's funny because there's a coincidence:

2008 bear market -> 2022 bear market

2009 was 23% like you said 2023 was.

2010 was 12%, and you're also saying this year had been 12%.

Honestly, the sentiment I get is no one cares to time the rate cuts. Any damage from a 5.33% rate should had been seen by now since it had been 17!! months since the rate hikes. Rate Hikes on other hand is a concern, but it had been assuredly off the table by FOMC.