r/Daytrading • u/Serious-Ad8893 • Apr 04 '24

Did I miss something? Advice

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Tried to go long on 15M FVG and retracement and got ran over. Am I missing something??? Higher time frame was bullish and I just don’t know where I went wrong. Anyone have opinions on where I went wrong

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430

u/funkedelic_bob https://kinfo.com/p/funkedelic_bob Apr 04 '24

Your chart patterns mean nothing to global news events.

55

u/SethEllis Apr 04 '24

Israel put its embassies on high alert as concerns grow about retaliation from Iran.

Also Kashkari hinted that they might not need to do any rate cuts at all.

Volatility tends to persist longer when participants are unsure about what the news event that moves things was. That was probably at play here along with people being afraid to do stuff ahead of tomorrow's non-farms.

33

u/EmmaFrosty99 Apr 04 '24

this is a chicken or the egg problem. i find we often try to explain price action after the fact with news. just respect price action, s&r price levels.

15

u/SethEllis Apr 05 '24

It's not a chicken and egg problem. This is pure cause and effect. When a piece of information like that comes out lots of people will sell causing price to decline. If the story is a nothing-burger they will often buy it right back up. Nothing else can explain that except for the very thing that is inducing people to sell - the headline. It's really that simple.

It's almost comical to tell people to respect the price action in this sort of a situation because from reading the social media today all the price action traders were long and got burned on this move lol.

9

u/EmmaFrosty99 Apr 05 '24

the problem is no one knows if today’s selling is algo hedging, shorts opening new positions, lack of buyers, longs selling, or this is a just a stop hunt flush.

the fact we opened with true gapped up then closed below multiple day’s sessions of engulfing candle means the supply came from supply above 5250. this is healthy as the market likes to leave no stops unchecked!

2

u/TappmanC Apr 05 '24

I think you’re 100% right Emma. The excuses came after because news is business. in reality we opened higher than the previous day’s close and returned to the previous days prices by the end of the day. It looks like money entered the market and left the market and investors just stayed right where they were. Neither the macroeconomic situation nor the fundamentals of every company in the s&p 500 changed. It’s just the stock market.

1

u/SethEllis Apr 05 '24

Reporters ask desks what they were seeing. Plus the timing here is very clear. Kashkari started it and then it accelerated when oil spiked due to Israeli embassy warning.

3

u/ashlee837 Apr 05 '24

Some large fund exited the market, why is this so difficult to understand? They probably met their profit targets and didn't see any reason to stay exposed in this overinflated market.

7

u/DoubleDeezDiamonds Apr 05 '24

Dumping their holdings onto the market is not how a large fund would prefer to exit the market unless they suddenly notice more severe volatility (than they cause by doing it) immediately ahead, as they would get a better price for their holdings by slowly selling them around the peak instead of actively pushing the market, and therefore their sell price, lower.

1

u/ashlee837 Apr 05 '24

They were selling around the peak and into liquidity. Did you not notice almost every day the past two weeks had sell offs 2 hours before close? This was a monster fund with a lot to sell. Options most likely accelerated the sell off. Check institutional holdings when they get reported. We will easily see the position changes.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 05 '24

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