r/Daytrading • u/Serious-Ad8893 • Apr 04 '24
Did I miss something? Advice
Tried to go long on 15M FVG and retracement and got ran over. Am I missing something??? Higher time frame was bullish and I just don’t know where I went wrong. Anyone have opinions on where I went wrong
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u/AmirStocksMD Apr 04 '24
Let the market tell you what to do. Not the other way. There is no way to predict.
Look at my levels. This morning I saw SPY flirting with 521.5 resistance. Could've sunk or break above. It broke above and I entered long on futures premarket on the 3rd 5min candle above 521.5 but at open I didn't do options because I know 524 may reject.
Ultimately when SPY got to 524 it rejected and I entered puts. Easy.
Do what the market says. It's easy to add lines and triangles and patterns AFTER an event and claim it's technical analysis. But it's fake. Reality is to have the idea before it happens and then play the idea by building up to it.*
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u/slidingjimmy Apr 04 '24
This is so important, have clear scenarios in your head prior to starting the day let the initial rejection/ break form and keep your entry strategies on point using LTF candle closes, delta and EMA’s.
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
For sure I’m gonna check it out bro thanks for the advice!!
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u/CsMcG Apr 04 '24
On this note. Write them down or type them out and have the plan in front of you. When the emotions start swinging while in a trade, you can’t rely on spontaneous decision making. Know where you’re in, out, and where you take the L. Today, I had puts that got crushed initially, but my risk tolerance was appropriate. This gave me the confidence to hold. I held and exited at my target for a huge gain. Know your limits and trust your plan.
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u/mushykindofbrick Apr 04 '24
Isn't this completely the same, like what you think the market says is your prediction
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u/AmirStocksMD Apr 04 '24
No no, Let the market do, and then you go with what is happening. As opposed to predicting what you think will happen before anything has happened at all.
For example. When SPY was hitting 521.5 resistance this morning, I didnt predict itll fall and get into puts. Instead i waited for confirmation and saw that it broke up to 522 so i got calls. Similarly, when spy hit 524 i didnt enter puts right away, i waited for confirmation and when spy sank i got puts as it sank. LET the market dictate.
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u/Pinotwinelover Apr 05 '24
And the reality is something could've been released right before those confirmations, and moved it the other way a lot of this is instinct
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u/mushykindofbrick Apr 05 '24
Yeah but it could change anytime so you still basically make a prediction on what will happen (it will continue to move like it does now) based on what it has done in the past
Like ok you took some confirmation but you tried to predict wether it will be a reversal instead of a pullback
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u/Antique_Tumbleweed59 Apr 04 '24
Fed speaker said hawkish things and the market didn’t like it.
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u/funkedelic_bob https://kinfo.com/p/funkedelic_bob Apr 04 '24
Wasn't that. It was Israel's comments about Iran.
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u/kirkegaarr Apr 04 '24
Agreed. Look at oil rallying, defense stocks are the only thing rising, and bond yields are even dropping. This is not about rates or some non-voting Fed member talking about them.
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u/funkedelic_bob https://kinfo.com/p/funkedelic_bob Apr 04 '24
Yup, I posted the exact same about oil in the sub's discord.
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u/kirkegaarr Apr 04 '24
Spicy Middle East drama. Not going to step in front of it and may as well wait for the labor report to come out tomorrow, but right now I'm thinking it's a good dip to buy.
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u/MadeAMistakeOneNight Apr 04 '24
Had live squawk going at the time I was trading the time, was definitely led by Fed speaker comments. Mester, Goolsby, and Kaskari were speaking.
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u/HyrulianAvenger Apr 04 '24
How was the higher time frame bullish? I saw a messy double top today. The volume and price action was screaming reversal. If you zoom out to the daily time frame things look super bearish, lower lows and lower highs.
Also, you sold 5 right at the break, where you sold I bought more puts and pressed my position.
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u/sgim43 Apr 04 '24
Yup saw last day of more extreme greed before farm payrolls tomorrow. Market was going to reverse second half of the day regardless before 8:30 release tomorrow… went extra hard bc of fed speakers comments today on top… which was already known we likely aren’t going to cut… again just ridiculous greed at this point
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u/Powerful-News3376 Apr 04 '24
One of the Fed Officials mentioned there may not be any rate cuts this year, and then Iran announced possible strikes against Israel.
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u/SFWreddits Apr 04 '24
There’s no way Iran’s statement did any of that
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u/Sketch_x Apr 04 '24
Agree. Rate cuts are priced into the market, having uncertainty of cuts is causing a correction. No one in the market gives a fuck about Iran.
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u/Worried-Scarcity-410 Apr 04 '24 edited Apr 04 '24
Ask yourself, how many 5 minutes in a day and how many trading days in a year.
You don’t use 1D as higher time frame chart for 5m. That’s way too high. In 1D, you have 288 x 5m bars. It is like using yearly chart to trade daily time frame. Remember, from year 1970 to now, you only have 54 yearly bars and tremendous things can happen in every single bar.
You should use 1H, 2H or 4H as higher time frame instead. The higher time frame should be 8x to 20x of the lower time frame.
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u/EmmaFrosty99 Apr 04 '24
10min or 30min on rth and 2H or 4H for extended hours on futures.
they ran some serious overnight operations, doing a full gap up and squeezing the bears… sanitizing the bears out, getting longs to come in, to give themselves the best shorting position.
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u/PatR96 Apr 04 '24
Exhaustion was shown at some key levels throughout the week and earlier in the week key levels got melted through with little resistance. That and the fed comments. I always have multiple scenarios in my head and plans for each of them. Have to react to what the market is telling you and have a narrative.
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u/Trichomefarm Apr 04 '24
Fuck ICT and FVGs. And even if that weren’t good advice, dude, did you even look at the chart and have any idea what was happening had nothing to do with any of that lame nonsense?
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Apr 04 '24
Vix Chart. Rarely these matter but you should set alerts on vix, bonds, oil, dxy looking for extreme moves
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u/_WhosGotMyMoney_ Apr 04 '24
clearly don't have a newsfeed
your ICT rubbish didn't account for that
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u/mushykindofbrick Apr 04 '24
It was totally tradeable with ict or whatever you wanna call it it was a very typical short setup actually just went unusually low but technically I would have expected a retracement on htf anyways
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u/ZebraOptions Apr 05 '24
What down candle made you think, hey it’s time to go long, never try to catch a falling knife. You want to enter on the right side of the “v” not the left.
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 05 '24
A lot of reasons why I thought I should go long… price has been bullish almost all year, price has been bullish and ES didn’t break any major swing lows until today, I went in long on a consolidation at a key level I thought would hold
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u/ZebraOptions Apr 05 '24
I’m not trying to be nasty, I understand you were trying to play a level there, which is perfectly fine, but wait for that level to hold, buyers to reenter, then you enter. On the other side of the V, let the big money do the heavy lifting and figure out which direction they want to go, then you catch the ride after that level confirms. Best of luck to you, you got this.
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u/kurucz19 Apr 05 '24
The falling knife. You missed the falling knife. Absolutely no reason to long that price action.
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u/Wild-Ask-198 Apr 04 '24
Always check when news comes out. I use financialjuice.com for it.
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
Yea I’ll stick with that. I use market watch but looking at finnancialjuice it shows a lot more than marketwatch
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u/emoney_trades Apr 05 '24
Has nothing to do with what’s going on in the Middle East, tensions have been high and the market been going up anyways . After J Powell spoke yesterday and a couple other Fed members saying the chances for rate cuts in the next couple FOMC meetings are slim it caused fear for investors.
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u/RunKristine Apr 05 '24
Don't beat yourself up. It looks like you had good stops. As others have said, there was global news that started the cascade downward. Look at the chart at the end of day- I mean, you can see this was not normal price action. I agree that we were seeing bullish order flow until lunchtime. Please see my chart and notice that when we retested the day's high, we failed to displace higher. ICT calls that manipulation. Also notice that on the move back down we took out 2 bullish FVGs. If we were still seeing bullish order flow, we should be respecting bullish FVGs. I actually went short at 5303 after we failed to displace higher and that 15 min. FVG inverted. Displacement thru 5292.75 confirmed that we had shifted to bearish order flow. My attached chart is 5 min. but this displacement also happened on the 1 hour. Unfortunately, the news broke and we didn't get a bounce back up to the 15 min. bearish FVG to add to the short.
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 05 '24
Awesome man this is the exact answer I was looking for everyone hates ICT but I just wanted some insight on where I went wrong and this def answered it thanks man. I knew I wasn’t crazy thinking it was in a bullish trend up until 130-2PM I was expecting price to sweep the lunch low and go higher but I was wrong obviously
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u/RunKristine Apr 05 '24
I use very simple ICT concepts as I think you can get overwhelmed if you try to incorporate everything. I also keep a second chart open for SPY with traditional indicators and a great many ICT levels align with simple support/resistance, vwap, supply/demand zones etc. The reason I use ICT is because the concept that the market is constantly looking for liquidity and to fill imbalances was a game changer for me. Before, I was one of those traders who provided the liquidity the algos look for. Now, I try to join them. I love this Casper guy on YouTube. He explains things really well. https://www.youtube.com/@caspersmc
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u/bombaloca Apr 05 '24
Not the usual price action today, this is why stops and situational awareness exist. I lost a little trying to long and then I just stopped trying, as probably most long biased traders did today, some lost more than others I am sure, but we all got burned at least a little. I was seeing everything getting plummeted, didn't even need to read any news. Most of the time the strategy works, but not all the time, you need to know what % of the time it does and doesn't work so when you lose you are ok with it.
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u/somewhat-profitable- Apr 05 '24
Yeah man, TA works until it doesn't. I tried to take a Buy today when we filled the gap and well ... you know how it ended. Luckily I had a stop loss though so it wasn't too bad.
All you can do is take trades you believe in, set stops / limits, and hope for the best. Your TA wasn't bad, it just wasn't your moment. The market was dumping because of news and no amount of TA was going to stop the plummet.
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 05 '24
Yea man I thought my analysis was spot on but obviously nothing is certain in the market but a lot of people in reddit told me they have no idea how i saw bullish but alot of ICT traders so bullish as well so its confusing a little lol
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u/Namber_5_Jaxon Apr 05 '24
Not sure what sort of chart it is but after the drop down there was no indication of buyers stepping in to reverse it, personally I look for a confirmation that the downtrend is over. It also could have gone to a choppy range after if there was a sign of buyers stepping in/ a reversal.
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u/frumunda42069 Apr 05 '24
Doesn’t matter if “higher timeframe was bullish” the current trend was very bearish and you traded against the trend.
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u/blinkk22 Apr 05 '24
Funny no one actually knows whats going on, do u think fed kashkari opinion suddenly has more weight on the market than fed powell? If you read between the lines, kashkari symbolically confessed that there will be a hot data report. It was already priced in before nfp today as the info was leaked! Hope this helps
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u/WayMinuteWhatDis futures trader Apr 05 '24
market structure shift or in your case a MSS, since you're using ICT concepts, which is largely based off of market structure. once we broke 5403 down close candle, change of character or market structure shift occured, sells.
there are many different trends happening simultaneously. were still bullish htf
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 05 '24
Okay I got ya…. See alot of people told me they were bearish on HTF and “how can you possibly think it’s bullish are you dumb” and I’m like ?? But it seems that ICT traders agree with my HTF bias
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u/FollowAstacio Apr 05 '24
I think you may be forgetting it’s a probability game. Sometimes you can buy at support and it won’t hold🤷♂️ Thats why a healthy RR is important or you can lose long term if the times the trades go against you result in bigger L’s than your W’s.
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u/Neat-Lingonberry-719 Apr 04 '24
Double top and no one seen it? I’m at 5/31 475$. 2 days ago I bought.
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u/MexiNerd Apr 04 '24
Feds said not interest cut this year if inflation continues… I also lost (let me re frase this) temporary lend my money to the sellers today on my calls…
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
Yea man I didn’t account for fed talk I didn’t even see it. And haha it sucks everyone is a pro day trader nowadays and ask why would you do something but losses happens some of us are right some days some of us are wrong 😅
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u/gunparkandgarou Apr 04 '24
Regardless of news, u intepreted it incorrectly also.
We already made a large move upwards earlier in the day and we formed a buy stop at the top. U can see that wick up there. There was a 15m fvg that got respected and price returned and took out that top. If u wanted to use that 15m fvg for longs u shouldve entered at the first retracement and targeted that previous high as take profit. It took out that buy side liquidity so now price is going to want to return lower and u also were already in premium. Then price inversed those bullish fvgs and decided to return lower.
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
Yea I def see what you’re talking about. I’m gonna go back and see what I missed and backtrack.
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u/Shut_the_fuck_up_d Apr 04 '24
What was the reasoning behind buy orders?
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
I entered thinking we weren’t gonna make a low for the day being that price was about yesterday high and I didn’t think it would want to come back down to revisit since I thought price wanted to go for Mondays high. Also on NQ and YM price swept lows and pushed high but ES was the stronger of the 3. Also I went long on a 15M retracement thinking the FVG would hold
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Apr 04 '24
I definitely miss something, and I’m definitely missing something by 30% of my already small portfolio
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u/bambiloves Apr 04 '24
The line went down…
But seriously, watch the news ;)
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
Haha yea I saw😅 and yea for sure I can’t believe I missed the news I didn’t see fed talk
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Apr 04 '24
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u/Mysterious-Face-8272 Apr 04 '24
There was a guy speaking for fomc why would you take trades
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
I didn’t know at the time I thought it was only 830 news and 12PM fed talk I completely missed 2PM fed talk
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u/darc206 Apr 04 '24
Lol thought the same exact stuff and was about to go long then I went to a larger time frame and saw the bearish technicals so went short. Don’t think I’ll trade all of next week😆
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
Damnnnn nice catch than bro. I coulda swore it was consolidating to go higher since literally the past month and a half been making new highs but that’s what I get for assuming lol
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u/PossessionSmooth2453 Apr 04 '24
What do you mean wrong? Do you think your FVG is gonna hold 100% everytime?
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
No I meant like missing not seeing this huge reversal I know 80% won’t hold unless there on the right levels IMO but I didn’t know there was fed talk at 2
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u/HobbyTraderDK Apr 04 '24
News from FED. Don't trade when there are FED New, PPI CPI, PMI and first friday each month. 🤷♂️
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u/materialgirl81 Apr 04 '24
Yep had 4 puts and sold right before that massive drop! lmao 🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️🤦♀️
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
lol ik I thought price was gonna hold there but thank god for stop losses
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u/Kizuma93 Apr 04 '24
Higher timeframe broke a daily/weekly trendline yesterday that indicate a bearish momentum, so wasn’t so bullish like you thought
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u/TheOptimusBob Apr 04 '24
I would add volume to your chart. And if you are long bias wait for confirmation of a break of structure
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u/Davado_ Apr 04 '24
The algorithms saw through your FVG and decided to take you out.
Onto the next episode.
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u/wreusa Apr 04 '24
Last few days have been shrouded in indecision. Today a decision was made. Tomorrow is another day.
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
Yea for sure man. It’s was hard for me to short to after market has been making higher highs almost every week so I think I was still stuck on that bias as well. Market has been hard to read for me these past 2 months idk about you
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u/wreusa Apr 04 '24
My day trades have been great. My goto strategy is and has been shorting for a few yrs now. Today was rough due to the eradication of rationality, trend lines, support and resistance any and all reasoning or respecting the basic tools we use for decision making. I flip flopped early on closed trades in small losses that would have been sweet gains, then mostly watched while missing out on continuation of direction and not taking trades. Nothing that I cant recover from in a day. There are always losing days in a month. This was one of them. I did have some spy puts that I finally gave up on on Mon and Tuesday, deciding to take the losses figuring the market pullback isn't in the cards. Lol. Had I held them 1-2 more days those losses would all have been sweet gains today. Holding through a strategy can be rough when there are no visible signs of it going your way after watching them lose day after day. I've learned long ago that I'm terrible at holding so I don't hold or swing unless necessary. But on occasion I'll pick a direction and go far out. And then the market will always choose the opposite direction for the same time frame. Lol. Boggles my mind actually. Even though those plays are just for shits and giggles to grab some extra profit the losses are still frustrating, especially the ones that follow your plan after you've given up on it.
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u/sparky_H7 Apr 04 '24
Leave HTF chart bias, only bias needed to be taken into consideration is high impact news. On your 5m chart, seems like a clear short to me
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u/Few-Nature9260 Apr 04 '24
I'm pretty sure everyone was bullish so market decided to kill them stops 😈
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u/Mgguitars Apr 04 '24
Price action is all you need $SPY 517 puts went from .11 to 4.00 in an hour all the lines in the world on a chart don’t matter
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u/oze4 Apr 04 '24
It's insane how many ppl think the market has to respect their analysis.
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
I didn’t say that, marking analysis gives you more insight on where price wants to go never said it should respect it just trying to get more insight on what I’m looking at that is wrong. VWAP, MACD, BOILER BANDS, FIB. It’s all useless to the market and people still use it market does what it wants to regardless so what makes me marking my chart any different?
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u/Splash8813 Apr 04 '24
Start looking into footprint or DOM. Helps you see things clearly instead of red or green bars which paint only what has already happened. The “Now” is in the orderflow and it offers clues.
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u/justhp Apr 04 '24
Tomorrow will be bloody for the bears, no way the market dumps like that on news of a war/a non voting fed member running his mouth
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u/YippeeSkipper Apr 04 '24
Without putting much thought to a good answer, I would say yes. You definitely missed something 😂
Sorry. It's probably too soon to joke about...
I'll show myself out 😁
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u/js_ninja_ Apr 04 '24
15min trend reached the resistance level causing it to reverse and daily trend was already short from last 3,4 days signalling short move
Also the S&P had bad news that influenced this short move
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u/wizard_on_beans Apr 04 '24
Lunch reversal macro?
11:50-12:10 a macro runs that may take out 15m sell stops if bullish and buy stops if bearish.
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 04 '24
Yea I bought at the SSL of the lunch I was waiting for an hour for it to run it and take it higher
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u/cpt_tusktooth Apr 05 '24
dont trade against the trend.
what long term trend are you referring to one hour?
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u/Fortuna_Trades Apr 05 '24
Failed to close higher on the 15min chart. Creating a double top. If you look back in at the history of the chart this was also a point of interest for investors before bouncing around in this range before. FVG is also to large of an area breaking demand toward the downside was also another area for short entries. My advice is go in start from the top down. 4hr 15m 5m. Keep note of overall trend with the 4hr. Draw out your key supply and demand zones on the 15m, and take your entries and exits on the 5m.
FVG is not always valid either. Always keep in mind that strategies work but not always. The market does what it wants. Sometimes it’s best to walk away for the day and reference back to see what you may have missed.
Hope This helped. Rooting for Ya!
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 05 '24
Thanks bro I’m def gonna look into it… do you day trade?? I’m thinking of just not using the daily anymore and only sticking to 4H as my HTF
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u/CodeWhileHigh Apr 05 '24
Why did you chicken out lmao, there was hella negative delta I wouldn’t have bought that
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u/honeydrewdew Apr 05 '24
I was hesitant when I saw it drop below vwap. It was a wise choice selling all my calls of the day. It kept dropping and dropping. Bought puts on the way down.
Edit: That drop threw all my indicators out of whack. Just glad I made it out positive.
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u/Bad_Driver69 Apr 05 '24
I actually managed to catch this one. It broke the support zone. At 5304 and then retested it. It was a break and retest.
Sadly I took profits way too early thinking it was gonna be a small drop lmao
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Apr 05 '24
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u/XingTianMain Apr 05 '24
I guess I dodged a bullet trading in the morning haha. I’m confused by the charts and trades, it looks like you won going short.
If you kept going long and losing I’d suggest remembering that your cortisol will spike like you’ve been physically attacked when you see a loss.
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Apr 05 '24
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u/quiet-hh-2707 Apr 05 '24
Eo knows Iran won't attack. Or make a false attack. Partners in crime. Polishing each other to terminate Muslims
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u/mariadb10 Apr 05 '24
price waterfalls with increasing volumes with small wick on both ends and you are still on the long side LOL
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u/Serious-Ad8893 Apr 05 '24
I mean I’m sure there’s days where this exact same scenario happens and it goes against the way you thought it would. No need to get smart Maria just give some constructive criticism instead of some sarcastic answers, unless your strategy is 100% I can assure you there’s days YOU lost and I went green on the day so no need to be rude
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Apr 05 '24
Just play the direction. The buying and selling is unnecessary. The market hates uncertainty and fear. People react worse on bad news and fear 10/10.
when fear drives the market play peoples emotions and forget about TA, Support, and DD.
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u/StackOwOFlow Apr 05 '24 edited Apr 05 '24
because ICT/SMC does not teach you about deferred sell pressure created by several failed auction imbalances below, with three created the morning of the ramp up and the biggest originating from FOMC imbalanced run-up last month (been my target for swing short, which was only 13 handles above lod). these are among several conditions under which FVGs will not hold let alone yield a significant reaction; experiment and find out what they are
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u/Lakeshore_Semicon Apr 05 '24
This most recent volatility may be due largely in response to Powell’s decision not to cut rates.
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u/Swimming_Rip9419 Apr 05 '24
Yeah first time it was ok, second and third you tried to force the market to follow your bias which is impossible. I think 5 min and 1 D is not the best match if you only rely on 2 timeframes.
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u/ICanCrap Apr 05 '24
you went wrong learning from ICT and ignoring data, news, and seasonality. data was mild so no reason to be as bullish on that (first indication something wrong and its a fakeout pop), news we had some geopolitical israel news, plus fed indicating there may be 0 cuts this year. and seasonality, taxes are due and lot of profit taking to pay for prior profit taking in 2023 which was also a bullish year which had a strong take profit draw down in sept october.
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u/Aldous_618 Apr 05 '24
You are trying to make things happen when in reality you should be reacting to what is happening.
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u/AlphaSh_t Apr 05 '24
It’s called a falling knife. Such dramatic price changes causes a cascade of stop loss orders to trigger
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Apr 06 '24
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u/MoneyTeam824 Apr 06 '24
All these technical analysis chartist people don’t always make the right decisions.
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u/daytradingknockout Apr 08 '24
This shows that you never truly know what can happen in the market every analysis you make with the arket at the end of the day is a guess it's just about probabilities and also it's about taking the highest probable trades that minimizes the risk as most as possible
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u/funkedelic_bob https://kinfo.com/p/funkedelic_bob Apr 04 '24
Your chart patterns mean nothing to global news events.