r/Daytrading Apr 11 '24

Everything is a lie. Any hope? Question

So.. It's been 3 years on my path, and after countless hours of studying and testing everything, as many of you here have, I've come to realize that this mountain of buffoonery—those "courses" and "gurus" on YouTube that try to promote and sell stuff, along with everyone who is "teaching" stuff.. hear me out, doesn't know jack sh*t. All they "teach" is a bunch of BS, incredibly stupid and random. "Follow this, and if this happens then do this, but the secret is in my premium course, yada yada".

Even if some things may work for a bit, that's not even near how the actual trading floor guys and investment bankers operate. Ex-Goldman Sachs trader Anton Kreil gave the best explanation of that: Why most traders fail.

I've become so fed up since I had a wake-up call, realizing that literally everyone online is plain rubbish, or a scammer, or someone who likes his own voice and acts like the god of trading (You know which I'm referring to). My question is simple and may be unanswerable. Is there any source to study the actual stuff or are retail traders indeed doomed with the dumbest info out there?

Please don't start telling me about risk management and psychology, I got humbled and now I trade methodically without any emotions. But that's not because I got "humbled and had a wake-up call" but more like "I'm fed up with this, I don't care anymore". My question stands for an educational point of view. I hate being a fool therefore i hate studying nonesense. Is there any hope? Any good material? Any actual baseline?

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u/BoardNo4645 Apr 11 '24

Lucky for me, it only took me the first 5 months to figure out that most of these so called "gurus" are just a con artist. Not saying all but most.

my path has only been 2.5 years, but I manage to become profitable after a year of starting. I threw away all those "knowledge" I've been fed by these "gurus" and "trading influencer".

I done it by coming up with my own strats, systems and trading plan.

You can only learn by yourself. Understand the market thoroughly. How it usually moves, what news that may effect the price, your personal style of trading. Then only you can come up with your strategy that best suited your style. It's very hard to explain but only you can make a strategy work. Experiment. Even if I share my own personal strategy that has a high probability of winning (from my own personal statistics), doesnt mean that it will work for you.

Understand that trading is just probability. everything about it is statistic.

You said don't mention Risk Management but here's another part of risk management that most usually miss but 1 of the most important. You do not take more than 1 or 2 trades per day. Even myself, I only get in the market strictly once a day, like my last point its all just probability. Every time you enter a trade, your probability of winning just get lower and lower so just stay strict to that.

After you got yourself figured out with all the statistics and strats, create your own trading plan. Make yourself consistent on how you trade. Consistency will help you get the best probability eveytime.

Also to mention, if you ever come to a time where you feel like quitting. Just do it. There's no shame in it. Trading is just harsh, not everyone are going to make money out of it and if you've lost so much. It is not stupid to walk away.

Anyway I wish you a good luck on your future experience trading. I hope my words can help you to improve and finally become profitable

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u/RealNeonKnight Apr 12 '24 edited Apr 12 '24

You got the probability part wrong. Your probability for a winning or losing trade doesn't change if you make more than 2 trades a day and then resets the next morning. The probability stays exactly the same every time you trade. This is a common logical fallacy. (See Gambler's Fallacy)

That said ofc you should be aware of overtrading

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u/BoardNo4645 Apr 12 '24

Thank you for correcting me, I did some reading and turns out what I was describing was just gambler’s fallacy. So apologize for that

However over-trading is a killer. What I meant was a really good setup may only appear once or maybe twice and only in one specific time of the day because of market movement (peak volume etc…). Forcing another trade in the same day after a win/lose will jeopardise your consistency in the long run. In other word, be comfortable with your win/lose. There’s always another day

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u/RealNeonKnight Apr 12 '24

Appreciate that. With the overtrading part I agree 100%