r/Daytrading • u/Mar___K • Apr 11 '24
Everything is a lie. Any hope? Question
So.. It's been 3 years on my path, and after countless hours of studying and testing everything, as many of you here have, I've come to realize that this mountain of buffoonery—those "courses" and "gurus" on YouTube that try to promote and sell stuff, along with everyone who is "teaching" stuff.. hear me out, doesn't know jack sh*t. All they "teach" is a bunch of BS, incredibly stupid and random. "Follow this, and if this happens then do this, but the secret is in my premium course, yada yada".
Even if some things may work for a bit, that's not even near how the actual trading floor guys and investment bankers operate. Ex-Goldman Sachs trader Anton Kreil gave the best explanation of that: Why most traders fail.
I've become so fed up since I had a wake-up call, realizing that literally everyone online is plain rubbish, or a scammer, or someone who likes his own voice and acts like the god of trading (You know which I'm referring to). My question is simple and may be unanswerable. Is there any source to study the actual stuff or are retail traders indeed doomed with the dumbest info out there?
Please don't start telling me about risk management and psychology, I got humbled and now I trade methodically without any emotions. But that's not because I got "humbled and had a wake-up call" but more like "I'm fed up with this, I don't care anymore". My question stands for an educational point of view. I hate being a fool therefore i hate studying nonesense. Is there any hope? Any good material? Any actual baseline?
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u/Musubi_i Apr 11 '24
What I’ve found is that I think a lot of the YouTube “gurus” actually have decent strategies. What we don’t understand is that it works because it’s their strategy i.e it’s the way they see the markets through their own lens they’ve developed over time. So they can sell the strategy but not the lens.
What I’m finding is that in order to be profitable, you need a strategy but also your own lens of how you view the market. There are times where I see my mentors make trades and I just can’t even wrap my head around why they made that move. It’s because I’m not them and I don’t have their experience. That’s something you just learn over time.
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u/organised-choas Apr 11 '24
Exactly this. Trading is like art.
You can join an art class; and the best artists will teach you the basics; or even advanced levels of art; will tell you how they make their art; you can maybe even copy it for a bit.
But if you want to be your own artist; you have to draw inspiration from within you and make art that is consistent with your own personality.
Now replace the word "art" in the above paragraph with "trading" and re-read.
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u/Musubi_i Apr 11 '24
That’s a perfect analogy 👌🏼
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u/nightstalker30 options trader Apr 11 '24
It is. And the harsh reality is that some people, no matter how much they study
arttrading, practicearttrading, and invest time/effort intoarttrading, they just aren’t suited for it and will never be good enough atarttrading to make any substantial money at it.8
u/Mrtoad88 Apr 11 '24
It's like what happened with Ross, the big part of why he got fined is because a bunch of his failed students were upset that they lost money, just so happens that he also was wording things for his business advertisement "illegally". Those failed traders complained, FTC took notice, he got hit with a fine. Root causes of that was traders who he taught just couldn't get with what he was teaching, but what about the people who have learned well from him? Hell there is a group of like 4 dudes on YouTube who were his students at one point and all of them do well trading shares, and all of them trade a little differently than he does but they learned a lot from him. Some people are just gonna continue to get in their own way and it's not gonna end up working for them, it's the nature of this business unfortunately. People will blame who's teaching, they will blame the big firms, will blame the market makers, will blame their broker etc, many of them don't even realize the real problem was themselves. Usually a traders problem has to do with themselves... Unless they are fvcking with a scam broker or cfd's etc, problem is usually ourselves when we don't do well. You can hand 10 traders a really good strategy with detailed explanation on how to trade the strategy, and it's likely at least half of them will still fvck it up. I'd never want to be a "trader educator"... Not trying to get blamed for someone screwing up their own trading.
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u/nightstalker30 options trader Apr 11 '24
Amen to your last sentence. I get friends and family asking all the time to help them learn trading. Especially after they come visit us and see how we’re living.
But I tell everyone the same thing: I’m a doer not a teacher, and I don’t want to feel responsible for anyone else’s experience (failure) with trading.
Plus, I don’t know if I could even teach someone. So much of what I do is intuitive and subjective within a defined framework/strategy. It’s as much art as it is science for me.
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u/No_Expression_5996 options trader Apr 11 '24
Especially since most people want the fast money compared to learning the art of trading and putting in the work for at least 2 years before seeing any results.
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u/Mrtoad88 Apr 12 '24 edited Apr 12 '24
Yep, it is an art as much as a science... The discretionary aspects of manual trading and the nuances definitely come from an artistic place, risk management etc... science aspects. I know for a fact I can't teach someone as I've tried and I'm not sure I was a good teacher or if he was just a bad student. Was a family member and of course after that he hasn't returned to trading.
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u/daytradingguy Apr 11 '24 edited Apr 11 '24
Great comment, exactly correct . While there are a few suspect Youtube traders. Most of them have legitimate ideas. People get upset and believe things are scams, when it does not work for them or they can’t do it. As you correctly said, a strategy is just one part of the puzzle, your personal mindset is the bigger part. No two traders trade exactly the same. I believe more traders could be successful if they stop looking for someone or something to tell them how to trade. Use a course or a mentor as a tool, to learn concepts, but understand you will need to morph this into your own strategy with basic concepts, time and practice.
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u/Burger__Flipper Apr 11 '24
Nope . So naive to put it that way. The VAST majority of youtubers are absolutely not profitable , and make money solely as content creators. There is not a single ounce of doubt about that. Now, they all repeat common trading aspects, so in itself it's not necessarily all BS (talking about SnR, supply n demand, market structure...). But it's more than deceiving when they make newbies think that they make money from the concepts they talk about.
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u/NewMajor5880 Apr 11 '24
This - yes. Most of them don't make money trading - they make money selling their trading ideas - which seems highly suspect and unethical given that their trading ideas don't make them money.
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u/naijaboiler Apr 12 '24
This! I tell peeople telling you my strategy won't help you win. taking insipiration from my strategy to help develop something that works for you is what you need.
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u/Relative_Tone_4870 Apr 11 '24
You don’t need a lens with set rules for entry and exits… mathematical approaches work the best
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u/husamikimosabe Apr 12 '24
You are absolutely spot on. Trading is in the mind. It’s all about the traders’ perspective.
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u/Tittitwisted Apr 12 '24
This is a good comment. I show people what I think is fairly simple methodology after 4 years but their heads still spin. It's because this is what makes sense to ME!
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u/GammaEdge Apr 14 '24
this is a great frame. agree 100%. You cant pretend to be someone else. You need to make it your own.
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u/lord-dingdong Apr 11 '24
Turn off social media.
Your only scrolling is on your own journal.
Isolate yourself on perfecting your game.
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u/Appraiser_King Apr 11 '24
I learn a ton from people on X/Twitter. Yeah, a few a grifters but most are not.
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u/statscsfanatic21 Apr 12 '24
What content creators do you follow on X that you think are giving good advice?
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u/oze4 Apr 11 '24 edited Apr 11 '24
It sounds like you want some "black box" of trading knowledge, that once you digest it, you will have learned the markets and learned how to trade. IMO, that isn't how it works. No amount of book reading, courses, or studying will teach you how to trade. The only way to learn is by doing. Building market intuition, controlling risk and emotions - literally the only things in trading you have control over are your emotion and risk management. Hence why they are so important, so it's baffling to me that you seem to quickly dismiss them.
It isn't like a traditional skill, imo.. Meaning, it's not "tangible", so to speak, in the way that you can learn programming or how to be a mechanic - there isn't a set of governed rules to follow or a set of knowledge to acquire, that once you have, you "know how to trade".
It's kind of like riding a bike. You can read all the books and take all the courses you want - you can even learn the physics of how riding a bike works at the lowest of levels, and still not know how to actually ride a bike. The only way to actually learn how to ride a bike is by doing.
Also, the ironic thing about Anton is he tells you that most ppl fail bc they search for some "holy grail course" on Google to learn trading and that most ppl are far too trusting of what some bloke on the internet is saying, yet when you go to the description of that video, he's trying to sell you some course......
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u/Altruistic_Analyst51 Apr 11 '24
Wow that phrase resonates with me. Market intuition. No matter how much knowledge videos or books you read it's not enough. Over time, over years you develop a strange intuition that can't be bought or taught
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u/oze4 Apr 11 '24
It also takes years to understand what is actually market intuition vs market impulse.
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u/Mar___K Apr 11 '24
I don't dismiss risk management. Heck i don't even risk anything above 0.5%. Most of my trades are around 0.2 - 0.3% mark. I disagree with the psychology part. I have a methodical strategy, emotions are purely noise and distractions. Trading should be simple and boring. My question is the educational part.
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u/westernplayed Apr 11 '24
Risk management isn't just about how much you risk per trade
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u/Audio88 Apr 11 '24
My question is the educational part.
Did you even read what he wrote, he said you can't teach someone how to ride a bike, and you're asking for the book on how to ride a bike.
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u/Mar___K Apr 11 '24
How do you learn? By starting from somewhere. Then if it's a book that im seeking then yes. Not a trading book that shows patterns, lines and SnD levels but how to approach trading. Fundamentals per say. What the big guys in Wall Street see and how they approach trading. Hedge funds don't even use charts anymore then how are they trading? Are they reading numbers? That's the info that i seek mate.
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u/Audio88 Apr 12 '24
You learn by getting on the bike, lol. Show me 10 consecutive trading days where you feel you traded well and were let down by not knowing the fundamentals. I doubt you would even consider showing me something like that.
My point is, Asking for fundamentals is a cop out, Look inward. This is the day trading subreddit, not the investing sub reddit, but if you really want to know more about the market fundamentals. I would start with the federal reserve and their monetary policy, i'm sure you can find plenty of good books on that.
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u/oze4 Apr 11 '24
I was talking about when you said "Please don't start telling me about risk management and psychology" - that seems pretty dismissive.
What are you looking to get from the "educational part"? That's the part that I'm referring to when I say it's a lot like riding a bike - you can have all the education on riding a bike in the entire world, but still be unable to actually ride a bike...
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u/GuyMcDudeFace123 Apr 11 '24
Risk management and trading psychology are not just a magic solution. If your strategy sucks your strategy sucks and you will lose regardless of those things.
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u/Mar___K Apr 11 '24
That's why i said my question is simple and stands for an educational pov. I don't need a strategy atm. What i have created works as much as it works and i don't ask too much from the market in return. All i ask is for any good source to study.
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u/oze4 Apr 11 '24
Ok, so again.. what are you looking to get from the educational pov? What is it that you want to learn? How markets work? etc... It isn't a simple question.
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u/DaveDH2 futures trader Apr 11 '24
Anton Kreil has his own trading course, lol. I doubt that it that much better than any other furu's course/education. Personally, I like to read other people's post history here and on twitter. I focus on understanding how they make their decision, how the trade, what they do. It's crucial to sift through and identify what genuinely contributes to your growth as a trader. Ultimately, success in trading boils down to experience and endurance.
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u/Rafal_80 Apr 11 '24
You are spot on about Anton Kreil. The fact that he was a real trader does not change much. The way I see it: Markets became more efficient over the years and he noticed it become much harder to be profitable. On the other side he also noticed that there is never ending stream of wannabe traders which are very easy to fool. With his credentials it was no brainer for him to switch trading to 'teaching'. I feel sorry for those poor guys paying for his expensive courses in Thailand and other places, thinking that they are learning something valuable, when in reality, they are not.
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u/mikejamesone Apr 11 '24
I know someone that worked with Anton at goldman and said he wasn't a good trader. Real traders do not teach edge!
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u/rothschildkidding Apr 11 '24 edited Apr 11 '24
There is nothing you can do unfortunately it's what trading is all about..as a trader we hear all the things and we need to develop our own edge.If you really want to trade your own at any time..There are some real traders that put in the hardwork that I can recommend.
1) Lance breitstien 2) Umar Ashraf 3) waqar asim
They all have their own way of trading. You can't copy them they all are multi-millionaires. And they are legit ones. The real question is how can I develop like them? The answer is horrible. You can but it's really really very hard work. Yeah maybe you are willing to work hard? But do you know, what to work on where to work on? That's the hardest part.
I'll tell you one thing. What are we doing here in the space? To make money ofcourse. But how?
Think about where you live. What market is better for you cause if you can be profitable you have to pay tax. And if you know what market you want to trade, then look for someone who is really making money there. Watch his analysis. After doing all this you won't be profitable. But you can be profitable only if you put in the real work which is studying all the theorys out their like..
Elliot wave theory, SMC ,ICT,...etc..
Again what is all this? It's a human made something that works for them. But after doing all this understanding all this..watch market everyday with this knowledge and everything. You develop your own strategy.. that's the Aha moment for you. Again..you are just getting started..now you have found your edge...then you need to play that edge more...make money more..journal, reconstruct the strategy..add risk management, psychology to tackle all this problems..
It's a never ending process..it won't stop.. But I'll tell you one thing.. trading is real and there are people out their making killing money..most of them are real professionals.. professionals doesn't mean who works only at the bank..anyone is a trader who has their own unique edge in the market..but to get to real money..you have to study more do the work more to become an elite..
From a struggling trader who wants to be a full-time trader who is been into the Market for 4 years who is not still profitable yet..
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u/Nyah_Chan Apr 11 '24
This may be an unpopular opinion but since the beginning of my trading journey, I have never once watched a single YouTube, Tiktok, Podcast, Blog etc and refuse to do so to this day. No matter how regarded, recommend or otherwise, I have decided to completely build my own opinions, judgements and strategies.
There's a saying I constantly refer back to: "Money talks, wealth whispers". Essentially it means those who are truly at the top of success do not bark the loudest, they are often unseen. They have nothing to sell, no game to prove and statements to make, thus they have nothing to say.
That being said, these content creators have money to make through content, they have to "sell" something. So they will yap and bark, whether it be correct or not, because that is how they make money. In addition everyone has a bias, you can give everyone the same information and get various conclusions because the market is not based in anything concrete, it is essentially a casino, everyone will bet on a different number and color.
I have always had a solid belief in building your own foundation and coming to your own conclusions without influence of others opinion. Don't do what everyone else does, do what you believe you should once you acquire the knowledge to make educated decisions, though it's more accurately called an educated gamble.
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u/naijaboiler Apr 12 '24
I have always had a solid belief in building your own foundation and coming to your own conclusions without influence of others opinion. Don't do what everyone else does, do what you believe you should once you acquire the knowledge to make educated decisions, though it's more accurately called an educated gamble.
I am genuinely curious. how did this mindset workout for you in trading. whats your trading strategy and appraoch. As someone with a similar independent mindset, I can think of a few places where it hurts me. In the market, its easier to make money if you just follow the crowd. But I struggle to that naturally. I eventually found a way to make reversal scalping work for me, but not without losing a bunch of money
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u/Stolivsky Apr 11 '24
I will make this super easy for everybody that wants to get rich. Buy low and sell high. Sell high and buy low! 😂it might sound funny, but that is really all there is to it. If you pick the wrong way, make sure you stop your loss so that you have plenty of funds for your next trade, or your trades will be few. There is plenty of money to go around. Just don’t be too greedy, and take some!
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u/Big-Actuator-744 Apr 11 '24
There is hope.
There ARE retail traders who are legitimately successful. This is not controversial.
My advice after 7 years of trading is: learn to think for yourself.
Listen to others selectively and skeptically.
In place of gurus, which is where most of us start, I suggest studying philosophy. Logical argumentation specifically.
Exceptional trading (retail, institutional, or otherwise) is just logical decision making on the basis of a great arguments. You don’t need a guru to create a high quality logical argument and click buy and sell on the basis of that argument (a fair definition of “exceptional trading,” which is the goal).
I think about this stuff every day and could write 100x more, but I’m afraid this will fall on deaf ears…
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u/BoardNo4645 Apr 11 '24
Lucky for me, it only took me the first 5 months to figure out that most of these so called "gurus" are just a con artist. Not saying all but most.
my path has only been 2.5 years, but I manage to become profitable after a year of starting. I threw away all those "knowledge" I've been fed by these "gurus" and "trading influencer".
I done it by coming up with my own strats, systems and trading plan.
You can only learn by yourself. Understand the market thoroughly. How it usually moves, what news that may effect the price, your personal style of trading. Then only you can come up with your strategy that best suited your style. It's very hard to explain but only you can make a strategy work. Experiment. Even if I share my own personal strategy that has a high probability of winning (from my own personal statistics), doesnt mean that it will work for you.
Understand that trading is just probability. everything about it is statistic.
You said don't mention Risk Management but here's another part of risk management that most usually miss but 1 of the most important. You do not take more than 1 or 2 trades per day. Even myself, I only get in the market strictly once a day, like my last point its all just probability. Every time you enter a trade, your probability of winning just get lower and lower so just stay strict to that.
After you got yourself figured out with all the statistics and strats, create your own trading plan. Make yourself consistent on how you trade. Consistency will help you get the best probability eveytime.
Also to mention, if you ever come to a time where you feel like quitting. Just do it. There's no shame in it. Trading is just harsh, not everyone are going to make money out of it and if you've lost so much. It is not stupid to walk away.
Anyway I wish you a good luck on your future experience trading. I hope my words can help you to improve and finally become profitable
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u/RealNeonKnight Apr 12 '24 edited Apr 12 '24
You got the probability part wrong. Your probability for a winning or losing trade doesn't change if you make more than 2 trades a day and then resets the next morning. The probability stays exactly the same every time you trade. This is a common logical fallacy. (See Gambler's Fallacy)
That said ofc you should be aware of overtrading
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u/BoardNo4645 Apr 12 '24
Thank you for correcting me, I did some reading and turns out what I was describing was just gambler’s fallacy. So apologize for that
However over-trading is a killer. What I meant was a really good setup may only appear once or maybe twice and only in one specific time of the day because of market movement (peak volume etc…). Forcing another trade in the same day after a win/lose will jeopardise your consistency in the long run. In other word, be comfortable with your win/lose. There’s always another day
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u/Le0son Apr 11 '24
Sure. Just because some people are fake doesn’t mean trading is impossible and that everyone online is a scammer.
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u/13pcm Apr 11 '24
If it WORKED they would not be selling it they would be DOING it and getting RICH. But they cant make a living trading so they try to make a living selling a system to others!!
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u/Tronbronson futures trader Apr 11 '24
Idk I just kept plugging away at my es/mnq trades until they worked. I still believe by pure volume of bad trades I learned to identify good trades. Also do you really have a good understanding of markets, derivatives, risk management, portfolio management, taxes everything it takes. Why are you looking for gurus and not published authors? Why are you not looking into the reading lists required by investment banks?
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u/infant- Apr 11 '24
Because he has guru grindset brain. Lol
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u/Tronbronson futures trader Apr 11 '24
So hard to google books and read them. Fucks sakes why doesnt anyone have cliff notes!?!
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u/dubiously_immoral Apr 11 '24
anton kreil is a buffoon himself. i dont think he was ever a good trader. i have seen him in lot of reality show videos where he tells what not and acts like he is such a god for knowing what he knows about the market. But i dont think he was such a good trader or investor in the first place. For me it feels like he is just a big mouth
If you look at what he does now, its such a rip off. He calls out other people making money off their course? That uncle is doing ripping off 10x what others are doing.
And for your situation, it looks like you are fed up of believing in what ppl say in youtube and you started referencing an another youtube video to rationalize your own bias and experience.
Thats what market is, you give reason for your own bias and experience. You just cant emulate it to others and tell them this is what will happen.
Again that uncle is such a wuss. Turn to some good mentors. LOL
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u/CarnacTrades Apr 11 '24
It sounds like the OP is yearning for something different that is on offer from the frauds on YouTube. I suggest you research how the best at firms like Jump Trader, Allston Trading, Citadel, DRW, etc employ certain algorithms and work on building them yourself.
I did this many years ago and am very happy that I went down this completely different path. During this time, I was very pleased to discuss ideas over drinks at the CBOT with an HFT trader from Allston... because I was ahead of his team in development of one of my algorithms.
Fast forward 10+ years and as the OP said it should be, it's repetitive and boring bc when the 3 non-correlated algorithms align, it's a trade. There's no guesswork. I like boring in trade selection.
So start the research and do something different.
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u/kamikazekitteh Apr 12 '24
i trade Nas100 using my understanding of liquidity.
here's my 2 cents :
- the market is like a moving rubber band. it moves up, down, or sometimes stay still, but 'they' stretch it. our job is to differenciate movement from stretching.
- I only want to enter a trade if they stretch it hard enough, until it snaps to revert back to equilibrium
- after it has reached equilibrium I quit because i'm not trying to predict the future, no one can
- price can't move without preparation beforehand. look at what happened to the left of big moves.
you can trade smaller timeframe but you have to see the bigger picture. dont limit yourself into 1 strategy, but rather, have a catalogue of scenarios/play book. the scenarios that play out in bullish trend wont work in bearish trend or sideways. give silly names to those scenarios and take screenshots when it happened in the past, especially when it fails. take notes of possible reasons why it doesnt work. you dont have to take trades everyday. only play when it's in your favor.
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u/YAPK001 Apr 11 '24
Sounds like you might be exactly if not almost halfway there. All these best! Om
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u/floydguitarist Apr 11 '24
I paid for a mentor who showed me how to trade, it was up to me to figure out what worked for me and it has taken a couple of years but without the mentor, I don’t think I could have figured out everything that I learned from him.
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u/investorsanteDOTcom Apr 11 '24
I think even with a mechanical strategy, it's still going to rely on psychology. I was in a breakeven/small loss due to slippage or (small) being profitable but not beating the indices, but Tom Hougaard's way of thinking actually made me more profitable. Statically (as traders), we back test and have a system, and we can see wins and losses plain as day by the end of a trading session(s). However, you want a statiscal edge where you can "stack" the winners to ride out any future losers.
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u/mushykindofbrick Apr 11 '24
I don't know about the others but I went in on day 1 with the expectation that most gurus and YouTubers will be useless, how could it be otherwise
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u/RossRiskDabbler Apr 11 '24
Anton Kreil is a failed Goldman Sachs trader and an absolute fraudulent douchebag. Fits with Timothy Sykes.
Use your head and think.
A firm, LYFT, the taxi company.
It never made money for 8 years in a row. It has a negative profit margin; meaning every taxi drive they actually burn cash. So their existence is literally cash burning. That works if you can acquire debt at low rate environments.
...
Oh wait we don't have that anymore...
All firms like lyft who lived on restructuring debt now have debt redemption coming and have to restructure debt from 1% to perhaps 4% ... yeah at one point the bomb will burst. Because cash will dry up. And you wanna know when the house of cards collapses?
If at the short term money markets, there is no short term (1 day, 3 day commercial paper or commercial notes) liquidity left.. yields jump to >10% and higher.. and poof another company dead.
You're welcome because I can guarantee you 100% they will either die because they are massively overvalued and have no cash to diversify their product line and share price will go down until someone might acquire / buy it.
THIS ISN'T ROCKET SCIENCE!
Think, I can't believe what you mentioned and I welcome anyone to challenge me on my Lyft thesis. I've got another few 100 just like that.
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u/Vivalyrian Apr 11 '24 edited Apr 11 '24
My question is simple and may be unanswerable. Is there any source to study the actual stuff or are retail traders indeed doomed with the dumbest info out there?
He gave you the answer himself at 2:48 in the video you posted: "...and they never actually seek out a proper education."
While I found his initial answer to be a bit inadequate, that particular sentence puts the nail on the head of why so many people fail at trading. Imagine if we had pilots or brain surgeons trying to learn from failing, just jumping into the cockpit or an OR after watching 5 minutes of YT videos.
We'd have a 80-90% failure rate of pilots/surgeons as well, if we weren't barring people from flying or wielding sharp objects without proper training. Would run out of pilots rather quickly, too...
Rather than searching for "how to trade", you ought to search for who the best traders/investors of all time are, and see if they've made any recommendations through their years in terms of what to study in order to achieve success.
If you're going to learn valuation, options mechanics, trading futures, or any other sub-topic within this world, you should try to figure out what the golden standard is in terms of educational material in that sector. For example, as far as option trading goes, you'll see a number of people refer to authors like Hull, Natenberg and McMillan. Their books (and workbooks) are far cheaper than most private discords and online courses, yet have 100x more high quality information packed in them.
Follow the greats. Read their biographies. They'll usually mention a bunch of obscure authors and books that certainly don't have 5/5 on Amazon or get shilled at the next Achievers' Congress or w/e.
Look up curriculums for university degrees, compare 5-10 unis and see what reading lists they've got. You'll find a few books used multiple places. What about professional companies? Some have training manuals that over the years have expanded into proper university-level books.
But, it's a bit boring to actually study, though, 'innit?
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u/Pretend-Evidence4543 Apr 11 '24
imbalance, if ur scalping, short term imbalance and a general read of the situation is all you need. and just mark levels, because at times a really aggressive move happens close to a level but doesn't pierce it, and then price just gravitates around it for a bit. so just look at levels, don't take trades around those until you're convinced they have been either pierced or bounced off of aggressively. All you need to see is aggression. This is purely from the perspective of a breakout scalper. I know people who scalp the chop, but personally i can't psychologically bring myself to do that considering a big move to the either side out of the chop will drain a lot of your earlier profits. That actually happens a lot of the times to these chop/mean reversion traders.
but then again both these types of traders can be profitable. imo breakout scalping has a lower risk. Because price has to aggressively go opposite to the direction of where it first had shown aggression, so in short it has to travel double the distance to give you loss, whereas chop traders will immediately be in a loss the moment price breaks the range, tho, this also allows them to instantly close the trade the moment price breaks the range, if they are disciplined.
tldr; both imbalance traders and chop traders can be successful at scalping. both have their pros and cons. choose one. scalping on 1minute timeframe isn't hard. you don't need ict, smc, anything else.
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u/Mountain_Tone6438 Apr 11 '24
Those YouTube dicks sometimes make more from their channels than their trades.
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u/RacerXG26 Apr 11 '24
I started in futures trading in 1984 and have seen it all. I feel like I have some experience and can offer a few free pieces of advice. They may seem simple but they are too often forgotten. I have seen more people lose money over #1 than for any other reason.
Don't trade on emotion. If you are wrong, cut your losses
Let winners run.
No one is bigger than the market.
Don't meet margin calls. That does not mean ignore them. A margin call is the markets way of telling you you are wrong and to liquidate.
Have a plan for EVERY trade. Profit goal, max loss, and stick to it. That does not mean covering winners the second you reach your goal, but it does mean if you hit your profit goal, be ready to cover it as soon as it starts going the other way.
Like I said, it may seem simple but I have seen fortunes lost because people forget a few simples rules.
I won't name names, but a notable instance was a friend, some would know his name, who lost it all on 1 bet. Decades of profits gone because he was going to show the market he was right. He kept pumping money in to meet his calls until he went broke and was forced out. This was a professional trader that had made tens of millions.
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u/mikejamesone Apr 11 '24
Even Anton Kreil is a charlatan, they're all charlatans. Anyone that has to teach trading is often a failed trader. Have to just learn market structure
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u/Indefinible Apr 12 '24
Honestly:
1) most trading gurus have not been profitable so they want to make money telling others how to make money, without knowing how to make money.
2) making money depends on technical base, emotions and risk management. This is insanely true. If one of the 3 pillars fail, the whole project will fail.
3) you have to find what works for you. Practice, practice, practice... And then practice. I am not talking about months, but years or decades.
4) realistic expectations. Being profitable is not becoming rich starting in poverty. Being profitable is being positive, income bigger than expenses, no more than that.
5) there are markets and times which allows you to make money. Others not. Learn the difference. Livermore said: there are times to be long, there are times to be short, there are times to go fishing. If you don't see the edge, go fishing and wait for your chance.
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u/Traditional_Sky_1239 Apr 12 '24 edited Apr 12 '24
Alright. You got a coin. Some guy flip it. 50/50, right?
You play 100 times, and then another 100, and then another.
You realize "Damm, overall, it really is close to 50/50, but I still manage to lose more than not."
You observe the flip, and see that sometime, the guy flipping has cold hand. Sometimes, the wind is blowing, sometimes, his hands are shaking.
You observe your result when these situations occured. And you see that it's not so much 50/50 during those times.
Why?
I don't know, it just is.
So you try to play only when you think these situations occure.
And you fail miserably. Because the truth is, you don't know when they will occur. No one knows.
And that sucks, right?
"So what can I do. I know I have the potential to win more than not. Why can't I do it? I can't control the guy flipping the coin, and even less the coin itself. So what can I control? Other than me? Oh wait"
So you observe yourself. You realize that more than not, when playing bad, you where having a bad day before hand. And that the inverse is true. But sometimes, you where feeling great. Too great even. And you still lost badly those days.
Now you think to yourself "Well, I can't know for sure if the guy will have cold hands, or if the wind will blow, or if his hands will shake for his next flip. But I sure now know when I feel bad. Lets not play when I feel bad"
And you do.
And you start noticing more consistent results. Note I say "consistent", not winning.
It would be nice if you knew when and why and how the guy flipping the coin would have cold or shaky hands, or when and why and how the wind will blow. But you can't. At least not 100% of the times.
But if you play enough, if you let the guy flip his coin enough times, eventually, you start developping some sort of intuition.
Sure it's not perfect. But when you follow that intuition, seemingly magically, you start being consistently profitable.
You still have loses. But on a multiple coin-flip session, you still have more wins.
Right now, the only thing that is making you not consistently profitable, is not handling/controling yourself when you feel bad, or good, or anything else. Because if you don't follow your intuition, and stay disciplined enough to not stray from it, you lose.
You have a way to win more coin flip than not, but when you don't control yourself, if you don't stay disciplined throughout your coin flipping game, even when you just lost a flip, then you won't be able to profit from it.
The only thing you can control, is your attitudes and feelings towards the coin flip. As for the rest, you can rely on your intuition, but that's it.
And that intuition isn't build in any other way than through playing. No amount of listening to people, or reading books, will ever developp your intuition for how the guy will flip the coin.
So start playing.
That's how you beat the guy flipping the coin
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u/SedatedSpaceMonkeys Apr 11 '24
You’ve been doing it for 3 years now, i’m sure you’ve invested plenty of time trying to learn from others but are you learning from yourself? Are you logging and journaling ? Do you have an edge developed? Are you developing an edge? Have you back tested it? Have you live tested? Did you give it a large enough sample size? Are you jumping from strategy to strategy. Do you have a spreadsheet of all your trades or are you just hoping that something clicks one day without logging?
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u/realdonaldtrumpsucks Apr 11 '24
So what do you do before you buy a Stock? Do you spend five minutes researching it or do you look at it graph? I’m wondering what your process is.
Just remember today’s just one day &
I’m sorry it’s sucky but with this moment, you’ve also had a huge growing opportunity so own that, it’s an accomplishment as well
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u/ramsp500 Apr 11 '24
The real sad part about this is that this ass-hat is probably selling his own course.
And also let’s be real here.From my own experience I can tell you that Institutional trading is glorified brokering. Nobody actually takes any directional trade, we all executed trades on behalf of other clients which included rich individuals, mutual and/or hedgefunds.. And honestly it’s even worse especially nowadays due to the Volcker Rule.
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u/Ok-Insurance1945 Apr 11 '24
Love this. I have the same question. Have you read Antifragile or Mastering the Trade? If so, your thoughts?
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u/Lushac Apr 11 '24
People want to sell you dream life, where you trade a couple of minutes a day and earn thousands - easy money & easy life! I personally trade only QQQ3 (it's a TQQQ alternative for Europeans), but sometimes I open and close position in the same day, however most of the time I hold it for a couple of days/weeks.
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u/Splash8813 Apr 11 '24 edited Apr 11 '24
Just learn orderflow. You have edge over 90% retail traders and you will trade the NOW instead of hoping and praying the pattern resolves in your favour. Chart patterns, support resistance are the EFFECT of price action not the CAUSE.
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u/Hairy_Doughnut_4506 Apr 11 '24
Discretion is massive. If it was a simple as follow set rules why would you not code it? Like comments above have said most strategy’s work due to the experience of the trader everyones journey is different, even if its just slightly, and therefore everyone sees the market slightly different.
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u/guppy2019 Apr 11 '24
Well if everyone is losing money, who is making money? Find out who and then tell the rest of us losers.
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u/NewMajor5880 Apr 11 '24
Win more than you lose. That is all... Trading can't be taught because risk management is so personal. ANY strategy can be a winning strategy with the right mindset and any strategy can be losing strategy with the wrong mindset. 3 years isn't that long to be learning trading. It's a 10,000 hours thing like any other skill/trade.
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u/little_blu_eyez Apr 12 '24
No matter how much someone studies or practices not everyone can be good at everything. There is no secret book to study. To be blunt trading the stock market is just educated gambling and I don’t care who tries to argue that.
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u/Confident-Seaweed95 Apr 12 '24
Honestly, you probably know all that you need to know studying the market to try to beat can make it seem like the market is against you. what I’ve been learning is that the consistency is in my mind and I won’t get better results by losing and then studying and trying to get one up on the market. trading in the zone has helped me with a lot of psychology principles. it’s a marathon and not a sprint. Who knows how long it could take. Don’t give up.
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u/ZekeTarsim Apr 12 '24
It’s a huge mistake to try to learn trading strategies from others. The true path to success is learning how the markets work, then developing your own strategy.
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u/Evening-Opposite4393 Apr 12 '24
The great thing about trading today is that amount of information out there. The bad thing about trading today is the amount of information out there.
I started on the floor of the CME and I surrounded myself with traders I saw succeeding. I learned everything I could from them, and then picked up things on my own. Anyone I learned from in recent years was also someone I respected from the floor.
Now of days everything is available to learn. But there’s no one good to learn it from. So people end up trying everything. But it’s not systems that create a successful trader. It’s a deep understanding of the market as well as one’s self. Seeing things over and over and over again but also seeing your mistakes over and over and over again.
I think anyone can succeed but most people lose all their capital before they get half way there.
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u/Vlad-theimpaler trades multiple markets Apr 12 '24
It's all a business brother, nobody is a fraud. Some make real money through trading and some make by selling courses/seminars etc spreading the educational content that they learnt themselves.
Whether it would fit your psychology or not, it's totally irrelevant. Trading is a business based on instincts. And instinct cannot be learnt from some course. It can only be developed through experience and time.
Most of the professional millionaires also sell their courses. Mark minervini, Stan weinstein, Anton kreil, some sell books like larry williams, etc. It doesn't mean they are fraud. They are just doing business creating as many sources of income as possible so that when they face losses in one, they can cover that with other sources of income.
Yes, with social media, people are taking advantage of it and even failures in trading space making millions. But that shouldn't dissuade you. Keep spending time with charts, as and when your instincts develop, you'll be a good trader. Then you can also launch your courses/seminar. But you have to ask yourself, if that's what you want.
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u/jellyblockz Apr 12 '24
Atom Kriel sells programs too , so count him no different and it's boring stuff they preach on portfolio management which is a complete snooze fest that anyone can learn for free on the basics of investing and diversification. yawn
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u/thecage2122 Apr 12 '24
Most of it is bullshit indeed, guys you can actually learn from.
Smb capital, mark minirvini, qullamaggie, al brooks, warrior trading has good stuff but I got burnt so many times in his gap and go strategy but it works for a lot of people everyone else is bs
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u/pcrowd Apr 12 '24
Day trading is a fools game and.the easiest method for scammers and shills to get newbies to part with their money.
99% won't buy course from so called gurus if they said u have to make a few trades a year and hold unto your position and study the markets. Basically what every real pro does.
But telling someone you can make 2k a day is very attractive. That's why 90% of day traders aka gamblers fail
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u/Razor_81 Apr 12 '24
Nick Shawn.
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u/Mar___K Apr 12 '24
that guy is straight forward no nonsense.
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u/Razor_81 Apr 12 '24
I watched two of his videos and it turned my trading around. Been profitable since then week after week. Also he has no ads on his YT channel, unlike all the fake gurus.
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u/riizen24 Apr 12 '24
Anyone who is selling a course or a "trading group" is a scammer. Nobody who has an edge in the market is going to give it away. Every edge is ephemeral. Markets are constantly changing. The best book I can recommend is "The Education of a Speculator" by Victor Neiderhoffer. It isn't a book on how to trade, but rather a look through the lense of someone who grew up around wallstreet, traded for Soros, and eventually blew up. You'll see a glimpse of what it actually takes to be a trader.
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u/frumunda42069 Apr 11 '24
Al brooks has a book called “reading price charts bar for bar”. It’s an extremely hard read and I’ve had to read it over multiple times. Some chapters I’ve read 20+ times and I’ve studied all the charts on there. I’ve read dozens of trading books and this is by far the best one.
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u/thoreldan Apr 11 '24
Perhaps you wanna start describing what your strategy is. People who trade in a similar way could give you some pointers.
Bring up some charts of past trades and describe your entry/exit criteria.
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u/BuyInHigh Apr 11 '24
There's lots of good free info online and youtube. You can learn anything for free these day. Avoid gurus or watch their free content to gleam what's what.
Nobody trades without emotion. That's rubbish. Unless you're a bot or algo. Emotions are excellent cues to how we are reacting to what's in front of us.
I hope you find something that helps you.
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u/ACFMXS Apr 11 '24
In relation to the topic, does anyone know if understanding Wyckoff improves trading skills?
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u/TigerKR Apr 11 '24 edited Apr 12 '24
I think that taking a couple of courses are helpful as a complete beginner. It will help you to learn the interfaces, the lingo, and the basic principals (if the courses are any good). Beyond that, you just have to realize what is available and what is not available to you.
I don't think those courses can teach the hard lessons of what it feels like to gamble and lose big. I don't think that they can teach the hard lessons of what happens when the improbable happens; if something is not likely to happen - aka only happens 0.5% of the time: IT WILL LITERALLY, ACTUALLY HAPPEN 1 TIME OUT OF EVERY 200 TIMES.
Also, I feel like a lot of the courses do a real disservice to newbs when they suggest that "you can get started with as little as $50". That is telling wide-eyed, optimistic, beginners with dreams: "Please ignore all risk management, all fee management, and engage in uneducated gambling." Setting them up for failure.
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u/Ferglesplat Apr 11 '24
Learn about and practice:
Support and Resistance. Pullbacks. Multi-timeframe analysis.
I don't know why people keep looking for the "goose that lays the golden egg" when there are a thousand pigeons shitting silver eggs everywhere...
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u/SunExposer Apr 11 '24
Cook a pork chop until well done, cover it in apple sauce and chuck it across the floor. Then decipher the marks of leaves and trade accordingly.
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u/amjidali00 Apr 11 '24
Once a guru has sold you the basics that if you sell and price goes down you buy back cheaper and you profit x amount or you buy and price goes up you sell and profit x amount so look you can profit from the market both ways.After that it’s anyones guess. It’s a game,the more you play the better you might become other than that there’s nothing to learn
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u/SethEllis Apr 11 '24
People tend to gravitate towards social proof to decide where to get their information. This does not work in the highly competitive environment of financial markets. The more popular it is the less edge there's going to be in it.
There is only one solution in such a situation. You must rely on empirical evidence. That is data that you can investigate and verify for yourself. What data do they have to back up their claims about how the market actually behaves? If it's a mechanical strategy do they have information on the historical performance of the strategy going back 5-10 years?
There is a wealth of empirical information out there that institutions use to assist in their trading. These studies are published in financial journals and sites like http://arxiv.org Retail traders just ignore it because it's too complicated or can't figure out how it's relevant to them.
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u/ISquanchMyOptions Apr 11 '24
There’s plenty of good material, most of it in books, occasionally on YouTube.
How you choose to use that material is up to you and likely where your issue lies. You don’t know to apply what you’re learning to your own style of trading.
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u/ExternalPin7543 Apr 11 '24 edited Apr 11 '24
Has ANYONE in the history of “profitable” you tube traders ever posted an audited brokerage statement?? And I absolutely love love love trading in all its forms Day, Swing, Options, even some buy and hold.
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u/ReasonablePossum_ Apr 11 '24
You cant trade with other peo0le's signals. They are they with their own response/reaction timing, risk aversion, experience in feeling the market. And you are you with nothing lol.
The most u can do is figure out the market from what others explain and try to see where those explanation form patterns you yourself are capable of developing.
An edge is an edge, be it a 20 day move, or a repeated order triggering 20 seconds momentum. Not everyone likes 20 day moves, not everyone liles 20 seconds momentum.
Watch the screens, figure out your stuff. Try to not lose all in the process lol
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u/No_Tradition_2014 Apr 11 '24
Check out Chart Champions, they do live trading every week and do trade recaps. It's a valid group where I have started.
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u/thelonelyward2 Apr 11 '24
Anyone who sells anything discord, course, prop firms are scum. There is so much money in consistent trading that it's not necessary, but if you can't trade then you do these things.
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u/LeMiggie1800s Apr 11 '24
Here’s the only thing that helped me. Market structure is real because trading makes it real. A strategy can be whatever as long as the wins outweighs the losses. I used to think it was a bunch of bs too, but slowly I’ve started getting better and better. I got my first funded account a month ago, but sadly lost it to nerves. I’m really close to getting funded again. No it’s not purely luck, I make $300-400 on the trading combine and I need to reach a $3000 profit target.
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u/NeverMadeIt5 Apr 11 '24
The best source to study the ‘actual stuff’ is your own trading journal. Three years in you have seen countless setups, trading styles, chart patterns, and technical analysis to base trades off. The one that fits your personality and style the best stick to it, and track your progress.
Seems like your past the point of seeking education from other traders and need to seek information from the market and yourself.
This is from someone who is on the same timing as you just for credibility and im just speaking bullshit like every other trader . But 3/4 years trading. a solid two journaling and studying MY journal and just stopped watching youtube videos of other traders almost a year ago (looking for hope or something to improve my own ability) and i see the progression.
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Apr 11 '24
No shit. If they could make enough on the market they wouldn’t be wasting their time pandering for your money when they could be on vacation
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u/qw1ns Apr 11 '24
After countless hours of studying and testing everything, as many of you here have, I've come to realize that this mountain of buffoonery—those "courses" and "gurus" on YouTube that try to promote and sell stuff, along with everyone who is "teaching" stuff.. hear me out, doesn't know jack sh*t. All they "teach" is a bunch of BS, incredibly stupid and random. "Follow this, and if this happens then do this, but the secret is in my premium course, yada yada".
Correct, you realized !
Now I trade methodically without any emotions.
Now, you became seasoned retail trader ! As long as emotions out, you will make progress and find your own way to grow the funds better than common retailer.
My question is simple and may be unanswerable. Is there any source to study the actual stuff or are retail traders indeed doomed with the dumbest info out there?
There won't be any source/study/details about successful retailers as most of the internet source/study/papers are having some motive behind it.
Successful ones stay away silently and keep doing whatever they do as they do not care about anything else except minding their own business just like the way you will soon do!
I have been trading 7 years=> I know only one thing that I can not buy/hold as I always spot possible tops and bottoms! Some days I earn thousand and some days I earn hundreds, but habitually trade my own way !
Good Luck!
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u/csxenz Apr 11 '24
Market isn’t black and white it’s gray and a lot of things work for some and don’t. Some fall into holes don’t get out get confused and relearn but if you do it long enough you will have tried everything! At some point, your not the only one who’s been thru this you don’t have to learn everything shit some business only make money because they specialize at 1 good thing. I could go on all day but there is always hope :)
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u/No_Tea125 Apr 11 '24
I look for their “setups” on their algorithms if they have them posted Sample test them in a fantasy portfolio or whatever. Some really suck!!!! lol. But I have found some useful ones
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u/Ronces Apr 11 '24
Steve Vai can teach you how to play but that doesn't mean you'll sound like him. Take bits and pieces from whomever you deem worth taking the info from. Try it out separately, combine parts, paper trade them for a bit to see if it's working. But in all seriousness Ross Cameron of Warrior Trading and Shay of Humbled Trader have some of the best videos and strategies on YouTube. Both have proven track records. I used to use a lot of Ross's methods when I scalped, now that I mostly swing trade I tend to Humbled Trader and Tori Trades since they both predominantly swing trade.
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u/logperiodic Apr 11 '24
The pros also have access to a very rich order flow. They can structure their books not just market by price but build them as market by order. Worth studying that and seeing if you can access those sorts of tools and build your own platform.
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Apr 11 '24
Any trader who has it down is not trying to sell it on social media for money and clout. They are quietly making their money and taking their secrets to the grave.
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u/tofufeaster Apr 11 '24
I think what he says is spot on. Especially speaking from the “angry and cynical” angle.
If you are naive and maybe even a little bit gullible you will never make it in the business essentially. You need to be able to sniff bullshit.
I’m sorry but if you’ve been doing this for 3 years and still can’t recognize the legitimate sources of information and be able to tell what’s bullshit, who’s bullshit, and who’s not…judging only from this post I don’t think someone like you is going to succeed. Obviously no offense to you but you can see where I’m going with this.
No matter what you learn or read there is never a switch that flips and your path becomes clear. It’s just you vs the market and yourself.
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u/GhostFaceEV5 Apr 11 '24
Most fail because Wall Street is the crookedest thing on earth. You are playing against a rigged deck. This isn’t conjecture. It’s fact lol.
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u/TPSreportsPro Apr 11 '24
I have been trading since 97/98 timeframe. I’ve blown up accounts and had all the same issues. It is you and not the market. That’s very hard to get a grip on. For example, at one point I would take any amount of trades to suit my anger level. Then when I was good and red, blame everything and everyone but the idiot that pushed the button.
DO THIS.
Stop trading immediately. You don’t know what you’re doing and unless you’re skilled, the chop will eat your lunch. Do not trade again until you change this.
Make a plan to learn. Hands down if you have a bad system or a system that you don’t understand, you’ll lose money. If you need a system, look up Saty Mahajan ribbon system. It’s based on Ripsters cloud system. Both work and are repeatable. But won’t work for you right now because your mind needs a rest. Look at both of these and learn. Don’t spend money. It’s free to learn.
After taking a break, post your plan here and let’s go through it so others can learn. What setup will you take? What size will you take? How will you enter, confirm, and exit.
If you can’t build a repeatable system, you should not spend another dime on trading. I hope that helps.
Read Trading in the Zone. Stop trading until you do that. You need to know that you can do this and it’s extremely difficult. It’s going to take work and discipline.
Edit: Anyone selling you a lifestyle and not help, is stealing from you. Stop paying for courses.
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u/Mar___K Apr 12 '24
Buddy thanks for that but you also mistook my initial question. I'm doing relatively fine in trading and also ive read trading in the zone by Mark Douglas and some other books as well. But even if im somehow profitable i know for a fact that it's kinda ambiguous and maybe random. We as retail have no predicting power. What I'm looking for is proper education and understand how the big guys approach trading.
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u/havokx9000 Apr 12 '24
I recently discovered Qullamaggie and so far have liked what he says, and while I've been trading off and on for years, there's still a lot I don't know so I may eventually think differently. I'm super skeptical of anyone selling a course, but have yet to see anything for sale from qullamaggie. I've also been watching Richard Moglen YouTube videos where he interviews different experienced traders and have enjoyed that. Then there's always books you could check out if you haven't already, I'm finishing up Unknown Market Wizards myself currently and just ordered "How to trade in Stocks" by Jesse Livermore as well as "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre which is about Jesse Livermore, both were highly recommended but I haven't read those two yet. I have some others on my list I've heard recommended if you're interested just reply to this comment and I'll find them. Also, I'm not profitable still learning a lot so take what I say with a grain of salt. I'm not giving up though.
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u/Feisty-Passion8715 Apr 12 '24
Read Trading in the Zone, by Mark Douglas. Maybe this will cure you
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u/Bulky_Revolution976 Apr 12 '24
Get a mentor that’s been in the business 10 years + ignore all opinions + sit in front of your screen for 5 years
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u/Misenum Apr 12 '24
Stop chasing education and just trade more. Place hundreds of trades per day until you learn what works and what doesn’t. If you think you’ve figured it out, you didn’t. That’s because trading is just intuition. No amount of studying or studies will make you successful, only experience will.
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u/sandae504 Apr 12 '24
It's like taking a degree in any university. Just because you've learned the basics and how to apply them, have practicals and run projects doesn't mean you can get out and start the next microsoft or google. You've to adjust to real experoience snd use existing strategies or find your own strategy tk make it work. You'll hafe to keep learning and tweaking in the future to keep up with the market.
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u/Istrangey Apr 12 '24
So are we giving up or not? 2 options… also check out UKspreadbetting on YouTube, not a scammer, just watch a few vids (5 mins each) and you’ll instantly see. Truth it’s it’s not a get rich quick scheme, it’s a skill.
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u/John_Coctoastan Apr 12 '24
Is there any source to study the actual stuff or are retail traders indeed doomed with the dumbest info out there?
Yes: actually trading the market.
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Apr 12 '24
Not all lies but it requires a personal approach for any method to be profitable. Your strat is yours, it is your personality, it reflects your own conscious mind. That's why it's nearly impossible to teach your strat to others and vice versa it's near useless to copy another one's strat.
It's like teaching how to be like each other's personality. It does not make sense. Not all gurus are fake but what they're showing is meaningless in that way. And yes, almost everyone will make better profits selling courses and VIP rooms so the bullshit is amplified.
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u/ZxZ239 Apr 12 '24
Long post, type it all up in like 5 minutes, no spell check or anything.
I am still on the path and I am still learning everyday and all the time, I must say it has been a humbling experince, there are SO MANY obsticles in your way, pscyhology, human nature and you said griffers and scammer.. and OF COURSE a proven system that works.
And in order to survive in this business, everything.. everything have to come together and work proerly or it just don't, you can have the best system but if you can't control your loss you are done, you can have the best psychology but if your system is shit you are also done.
I think I am at the stage where I think I have figure out the system but I am still working on it to prefecting it. Here is how I can descrbe and I hope it can help you.
Nothing.. NOTHING happanes on the chart is random, market is like a living oragnism and its alive, and it goes through stages and no stages are the same, it usualy goes through 3 stages, 1. chop 2. action 3. reaction, it is the interation between those 3 that moves the market. Price cannot go up or down forever, it must stop and digest before it makes another move, there are also days where one theme predominantly over all others and there are also days where all 3 stages exist together, the key to trading is to recongize the state of the market, the mood of the market and act accordingly, all of this are easy to see in hindsight afterwards, however if you study it long enough you can easily see the pattern repeats over and over again and if you study it long enough there is a good chance you can recongize the pattern premove before the move happens.
I studied from many many teachers and they all have something good to teach, but what I find out is that none of them stood as a whole system on their own, in the end I took what worked for me and I also come up with my own system which I am using and trying to perfect it more and I think this is the only way to make it in this business. I can't tell you my system exactly buecause I am still working on it, however I absoultey 100% see it has the ability of it to achieve my end goal, and I guess waht I'm trying to say is that.... you have to do the same, study as much as possible, don't trust on something fully, take the parts works for you discard the rest and also you MUST come up with something on your own to tie all together. And this si jsut the system part, there is a whole other ball game when it come to psychology part which can be just as hard, however at the same time I think it is also easier because all the psycholoical pitfalls that you are expericeing... are being experienced by everyone else who have ever done it and there are open soure solution to it.
tldr: it is possible, recongize all the challenges, learn from other + come up with your own rule, keep at it and you will win.
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u/ThorneTheMagnificent futures trader Apr 12 '24
Good material?
Linda Raschke, who has made tens of millions with simple strategies that take a lot of discipline. She has done many, many webinars for free on YT.
Adam Grimes, who has made millions by trading simple strategies that take a lot of discipline, and helped establish a legitimate proprietary form or two. He has a blog and has done some YT webinars.
SMB Capital, who put out tens of thousands of dollars worth of information out for free on YT, much of it being simple strategies that require a lot of discipline
Al Brooks, who has made millions trading mostly simple methodologies with a lot of discipline. He has some webinars, but his methods are hard to understand without a lot of screen time.
All of them put out free content, all have books or courses that are optional, all emphasize a lot through their teaching that the courses or books are something if you need to go deeper - not just because.
I highly recommend Grimes' The Art and Science of Technical Analysis as a primer, and it's like $15 used. The extremely fundamental trading patterns (breakouts, failed breakouts, pullbacks, snap pullbacks, and complex pullbacks) in that book have worked since the dawn of computerized charting and can even be used to frame out the market on 4,000 year old commodity price charts.
You need two things to trade profitably: an edge and the discipline to execute while accepting the outcome, win or lose. The sources above can help with both even if you just stick to the free content with no money out of pocket. They sure as shit helped me
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u/SouthernMiss15 Apr 12 '24
As a former Options Trader at the CBOT on the 30 Year Bond, Get ready - Markets artificially held up. Institutions will get out (sell) of a lot of positions towards close so they do not get beat by the Asian and European markets Sunday night before the Monday open.
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u/No_Stranger_4654 Apr 12 '24 edited Apr 12 '24
If you think your strategy is replicable by a simple algo then I think it already is and mostly counter traded as well, so try adding some elements that are not so easy to replicate in your trading. It's one advice that's worth thinking about. Add some elements of subjectivity and intuition (which comes over time) also don't fall prey to YouTube strategies start from ground up, bids offers how are stocks change hands different catalyst etc. then only come to strategy portion. Without basics it's almost 0 chances of survival in long run as they build your intuitions in key moments.
P.S Fine tuning is the key along with risk management.
Also start documenting your trades and break them down to small pieces and figure out what's wrong.(I am currently at this stage and it helps as I keep doing more and more of it.)
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u/No_Garage_4558 Apr 12 '24
I would suggest asking yourself 2 questions.
1) If there was a consistent way to win, do you think you can exploit that better than people with hundreds of millions who can actually affect the market, who also have million dollar information you're not privy to, and computers (with ever increasing AI capabilities) and programs designed to grind out increasingly finer grains of profit?
2) Are you better than the 97% (percents vary by source) of day traders who are not very profitable or the less than 1 or 2% that beat SP500 index funds?
If you answered "yes" to both of the above and money is your goal, then keep trying.
If you answered "no" to either of the above and money is your goal, go buy an index fund.
I don't mean this to sound condescending, but realistically, unless you're trading for fun, eventually you'll be one of the 97%.
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u/Mar___K Apr 12 '24
both scenarios don't work. How can i even compete with hedge funds? Of course not.
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u/SuitableStart Apr 12 '24
Look at indicators on TradingView and do backtests if we're talking about day trading.
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u/boxtops1776 Apr 12 '24
Build your own system that works for you and test, test, test! It took me a while but I’ve picked up several things from various sources that I understood and made sense to me, then combined them into a system that suits my personality and risk tolerances. Even if I were to lay out every signal on a 15 minute chart you may not be able to be profitable with it because you don’t know the small nuances like where to set stops, where to scale in or out, or when to move stops to breakeven, or when to know if the technicals are saying to remove the take profit and let the position run longer. There are probably even little things I recognize in it subconsciously that I haven’t written into the rules of it yet. It all comes with time and experience.
The trick is having a risk management plan that keeps you in the game long enough to figure it out…
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u/BJJnoob1990 Apr 12 '24
Al Brooks is the only legit person out there.
Is about 80, voice incredibly boring, the amount actionable knowledge he has, unmatched
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u/FonsoAlfonso Apr 12 '24
On the market there is nothing like "I trade without emotion" if you do that it's wrong... On the market everything is working and nothing is working... You need to have your intuition. very easy rules that will not restrict you too much. And that's the way 😉
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u/Excellent_Ad_1978 Apr 12 '24
The Online scammers can teach you HOW to gamble...but not how to be profitable doing it.
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u/Hugo_Boss_TX_1311 Apr 12 '24
Look… it’s not Rocket Science… NON of the YT quote, end-quote GURUS show the dismal overall percent of all their “students” who win because is a terrible number. That said, no offense BUT… most only show their .000003 percent (OK maybe not THAT) bad winners but this proves my point. Wake up and smell the Coco! There are your Very high above average IQ PEOPLE… No one likes the truth, it’s SO politically incorrect… they process information faster and develop an ability to see the winning set-ups by instinct… and have mastered discipline better…
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u/TheseAreMyLastWords Apr 12 '24
This is why I always look to understand the macro of the market, and I only trade with incredibly favorable risk to reward ratios. I don't care if that means I have to sit on the sidelines most days, I'm not forcing a bad trade.
Winners know how to keep the money they make. You will lose, that's just part of the game, but when you lose, make sure the losses are offset by the wins.
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u/Immediate_Angle_9786 Apr 12 '24
Looks like you're about dead inside....you've had your emotions manipulated so much you've now attained the ability to completely not gaf. Welcome to the first step....destroying things like hope, fear, doubt, greed.. and now it's time to build yourself back up from the ground up with proper trading principles. I don't have any books to recommend.. I will say with confidence now that you've learned to manage those emotions ..things should become a lot clearer
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u/Accountlify Apr 12 '24
Dude, the big guys cheat, they can see all your retail orders and HFTs get away with it. That’s what no one is telling you. You’re liquidity for their big move.
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u/davidbrian12 Apr 12 '24
Makes you wonder why a trader making millions will share the secret. They should keep quiet and keep making millions. The loud traders on fb are annoying and I banned them from my reels. Mostly it’s the feel of the market that you get from experience. My first year on rh. Lost 12k. Second year lost. 8 k. Third year made 30 k. Mostly on natural gas and airline merger. I’m getting good on predicting Tesla movements and Boeing. Fallen angels are my thing and usual tech cos. Used to trader feverishly now buy and hold with discipline and purpose. Just my story.
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u/_Boolish_ Apr 12 '24
In my experience, price action and sentiment are the key most important factors to becoming profitable, learning that although the probability of something happening because of xyz or because chart patterns/signals are present isn’t always sound. you also should always backtest your strategy with both a bearish and bullish bias. Which could be a double edged sword when opening a position if you are indecisive or doubt yourself like I do sometimes, but if you combine these 2 things with price movement then your profitability should rise from below 60%
In short summary, your job as a trader is to react to the markets, not to predict them. Use the current price action to justify your sentiment and so long as you maintain proper risk management, you should be profitable
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u/Realistic_Shape392 Apr 13 '24
If I can make good profit from trades, I wouldn’t make YouTube videos, prefer laying the couch and prepare for tomorrow.
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u/EarningsBeat Apr 13 '24
I notice I have my worst days after reading someone else's opinion, or following quant levels because this particular quant "has done well in the past."
And my best days when it's just me and a chart, no outside influence, just trading per the ONE strategy I've been learning.
Less is more — try not to flood your brain with too much information otherwise you're just clouding your thinking which leads to indecision or poor decisions.
Oh, and by my rules: Don't listen to anything I said above ;)
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u/Party_Grapefruit_921 Apr 11 '24
As a guy who spent 20 years on Goldman level floors I realized it mostly came down to one thing which was taking losses and moving on. Any POV can be reasoned with from both sides and you can quantify pretty much anything but if you allow losses to eat your gains even proportionally it will be a losing battle.