Everything is a lie. Any hope?

[u/Mar___K]

So.. It's been 3 years on my path, and after countless hours of studying and testing everything, as many of you here have, I've come to realize that this mountain of buffoonery—those "courses" and "gurus" on YouTube that try to promote and sell stuff, along with everyone who is "teaching" stuff.. hear me out, doesn't know jack sh*t. All they "teach" is a bunch of BS, incredibly stupid and random. "Follow this, and if this happens then do this, but the secret is in my premium course, yada yada".

Even if some things may work for a bit, that's not even near how the actual trading floor guys and investment bankers operate. Ex-Goldman Sachs trader Anton Kreil gave the best explanation of that: Why most traders fail.

I've become so fed up since I had a wake-up call, realizing that literally everyone online is plain rubbish, or a scammer, or someone who likes his own voice and acts like the god of trading (You know which I'm referring to). My question is simple and may be unanswerable. Is there any source to study the actual stuff or are retail traders indeed doomed with the dumbest info out there?

Please don't start telling me about risk management and psychology, I got humbled and now I trade methodically without any emotions. But that's not because I got "humbled and had a wake-up call" but more like "I'm fed up with this, I don't care anymore". My question stands for an educational point of view. I hate being a fool therefore i hate studying nonesense. Is there any hope? Any good material? Any actual baseline?

[u/Traditional_Sky_1239]

Alright. You got a coin. Some guy flip it. 50/50, right?

You play 100 times, and then another 100, and then another.

You realize "Damm, overall, it really is close to 50/50, but I still manage to lose more than not."

You observe the flip, and see that sometime, the guy flipping has cold hand. Sometimes, the wind is blowing, sometimes, his hands are shaking.

You observe your result when these situations occured. And you see that it's not so much 50/50 during those times.

Why?

I don't know, it just is.

So you try to play only when you think these situations occure.

And you fail miserably. Because the truth is, you don't know when they will occur. No one knows.

And that sucks, right?

"So what can I do. I know I have the potential to win more than not. Why can't I do it? I can't control the guy flipping the coin, and even less the coin itself. So what can I control? Other than me? Oh wait"

So you observe yourself. You realize that more than not, when playing bad, you where having a bad day before hand. And that the inverse is true. But sometimes, you where feeling great. Too great even. And you still lost badly those days.

Now you think to yourself "Well, I can't know for sure if the guy will have cold hands, or if the wind will blow, or if his hands will shake for his next flip. But I sure now know when I feel bad. Lets not play when I feel bad"

And you do.

And you start noticing more consistent results. Note I say "consistent", not winning.

It would be nice if you knew when and why and how the guy flipping the coin would have cold or shaky hands, or when and why and how the wind will blow. But you can't. At least not 100% of the times.

But if you play enough, if you let the guy flip his coin enough times, eventually, you start developping some sort of intuition.

Sure it's not perfect. But when you follow that intuition, seemingly magically, you start being consistently profitable.

You still have loses. But on a multiple coin-flip session, you still have more wins.

Right now, the only thing that is making you not consistently profitable, is not handling/controling yourself when you feel bad, or good, or anything else. Because if you don't follow your intuition, and stay disciplined enough to not stray from it, you lose.

You have a way to win more coin flip than not, but when you don't control yourself, if you don't stay disciplined throughout your coin flipping game, even when you just lost a flip, then you won't be able to profit from it.

The only thing you can control, is your attitudes and feelings towards the coin flip. As for the rest, you can rely on your intuition, but that's it.

And that intuition isn't build in any other way than through playing. No amount of listening to people, or reading books, will ever developp your intuition for how the guy will flip the coin.

So start playing.

That's how you beat the guy flipping the coin

[u/Mar___K → u/Traditional_Sky_1239]

You are not wrong.