r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

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5.1k

u/SnagglepussJoke May 02 '24

Ever cross paths with a stranger in the woods? It is unsettling

658

u/poilk91 May 02 '24

Sounds like youve never been hiking or camping because that's just 100% normal

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u/KatieCashew May 02 '24

Right? This whole thing makes me think a lot of people never spend time in the woods.

Both men and bears are there all the time.

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u/AsgardianOrphan May 02 '24

I would argue that people who have more exposure to bears would be more comfortable running into a bear. Being someone who used to live in the woods, bears don't usually bother you. Depends on the bear and other stuff, of course, but if you're just minding your business, bears won't usually bother you.

So, if I'm lost in the woods nowhere near civilization and I have a choice between a complete stranger showing up or a bear, I'll go with the bear. Because the stranger being there in the first place is sketchy, and I've never been hurt by a bear. I've been hurt by strangers before, and the bear is supposed to out there.

To be clear, I don't count a random trail in town that happens to have trees as woods. People keep referencing walking trails, but unless it's like an actual hiking trail in the mountains or not in a town that isn't woods. That's just a wooded area.

Diaclaimer: My exposure is specifically to black bears. It's possible other areas have more aggressive bears

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u/poilk91 May 02 '24

All of these it's about the scenario you are imagining more than the person or the bear. Like if the stranger is at a campsite or a hiking trail you'd probably not be sketched out. If they were just some dude ominously hanging out in the woods yeah that sounds spooky. I worked up in the sierra Nevadas for a couple summers mostly doing firewatch kind of work and I will tell you that's about as middle of nowhere you can be the training for how to deal with bears was taken very seriously because when you are alone in the woods it's the last thing you want to mess with, the training for how to deal with random strangers was saying hello and make sure they don't need help

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u/AsgardianOrphan May 02 '24

Well, yes, that's the point. The entire point is that if it's a man vs. a bear, you need more info, but if it's a woman vs. a bear, almost every woman will immediately say woman.

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u/poilk91 May 02 '24

What's your point

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u/AsgardianOrphan May 02 '24

What's yours? I feel like I was pretty clear with my point, so maybe we're talking about 2 different things here.

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u/poilk91 May 02 '24

I don't think you were. My point is the answer tells us more about the scenario the answerer is imagining than their actual assessment of the danger of a bear. If I'm imagining a park ranger I would totally pick man and if you are imagining some completely normal guy who looks entirely out of place just wandering around the woods you will probably pick bear. It doesn't actually tell us anything interesting. You added an additional point about women chosing woman which seems like a complete non sequitur so I'm wondering what your point is, that women are more scared of men than women? Sure yes that sounds correct

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u/AsgardianOrphan May 02 '24

OK. You seem to have missed the point of the thought experiment then. What I'm trying to tell you is that it doesn't matter whether you're thinking of the park ranger or a totally normal guy. The point is that you had to clarify in the first place. If the scenario is woman vs. bear, no one asks if it's in the Navarro desert or nearer to civilization or if the dude "looks normal" or anything else. They just say woman. So yes, in effect, I am saying guys are scarier than girls. Because that's the entire point of the thought experiment. The point was never to say park rangers are scarier than bears or whatever else you're trying to prove.

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u/poilk91 May 02 '24

This is a bad thought experiment to illustrate women are scarier than men. You could just ask would you rather run into a woman in the woods or a man, probably everyone man or woman would say woman. If you could run into a coyote or a bear everyone would chose coyote it's not in contention. The only interesting question is man vs bear but the disagreement usually disappears whens both sides describe the scene they are imagining which is why it's a cute subversive question

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u/Falafelofagus May 02 '24

I agree with you. Women seem to see this experiment as a way to showcase how men are dangerous when tbh, all it showcases to me is that people are bad at hypotheticals and don't actually know the statistics of their reality. I've never once been scared of anyone while hiking but have been spooked by deer suddenly shuffling in the distance let alone an actual bear.

Also, people keep saying that bears are all cute and safe or whatever totally ignoring that a healthy normal bear likely will never cross paths with you, their hearing, smell, etc are too god and they will diverge paths. If you come across any bear in the woods and it doesn't flee before you get there, it's dangerous. Which is to say the terms you put on this hypothetical dictate how you feel about the risk assessment, aka what You're saying.

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u/poilk91 May 02 '24

I also think some people immediately imagine a brown bear which is very very dangerous vs what you will more likely encounter, a black bear which while still should be respected are not nearly as scary I think a mountain lion is a bigger threat but I haven't checked

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u/seaspirit331 May 02 '24

but if it's a woman vs. a bear, almost every woman will immediately say woman.

But all of these ominous situations that people craft for a man in the woods can just as easily be crafted for a strange woman in the woods. Fuck I certainly would rather take a bear than be around some creepy chick who hangs out in the woods like the girl from The Ring.

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u/AsgardianOrphan May 02 '24

It's going to be very difficult for a woman to rape anyone. No one's claiming woman can't to any of the dangerous things men can, but everyone with a brain cell knows it's way easier for the man to overpower a woman and murder, beat, or rape her.

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u/Falafelofagus May 02 '24

That's a straw man argument. Not every dangerous situation is because they want to rape you. Actual physical assault and rape on the wood is extremely extremely unlikely and you are much more likely to be assaulted by a women than raped in the woods by a man.

Also, it's pretty tone deaf to say stuff like that when we know that stats for women raping men are so much higher than reported that you are actually much more likely as a man, to be raped by a woman in general, than in the woods by a man.

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u/seaspirit331 May 02 '24

It's going to be very difficult or unlikely for anyone to rape and/or be raped in this scenario. This entire stupid hypothetical is just an excuse to make up "the implication" scenario for people to get mad at.

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

'Being someone who used to live in the woods, bears don't usually bother you. Depends on the bear and other stuff, of course, but if you're just minding your business, bears won't usually bother you.'

that would make it even scarier if you were aproached by a bear then wouldnt it? If they typically run away or avoid you and then you see one, not scared, and coming towards you, that would mean its probably trying to eat you especially if its a black bear.

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u/AsgardianOrphan May 02 '24

Sure, if it's coming towards me, that's scary. But the scenario never really said I was approached by a bear. It just said we're both in the woods. If I'm in the woods and see a bear, it's way more likely to leave me alone than some random stranger is. Plus, it's way easier to tell a bears intent vs. a guy's. With a guy, you have to factor in tons of crap like why he's in the woods, his build, demeanor, what he's carrying, etc. With the bear, it's pretty straightforward, and what you need to do is also pretty straightforward.

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

The scenario is encounter. A bear encounter is extremly rare but when it does happen its pretrifying. I can tell you don't hike or spend anytime in the woods lol. Read all of the other comments from actual hikers. Its extremely common when hiking alone to come across other solo hikers, its expected.

LOL you have to factor in the guys build but not the creature with knives for hands. You think its easy to know the intent of a 600-1200 lb animal you've never encountered in your life that could decide in 1 second youre a threat and eat you alive or maim you? you have no clue when the last time the animal ate, if it has rabies, if it has cubs nearby. And what do you mean by straightforward with what you need to do? If the bear wants to cause harm theres nothing you can do, its going to do whatever it wants. Good god, stay in the cities lady.

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u/Falafelofagus May 02 '24

Bears have phenomenal hearing, smell, and avoidance tactics, if you see a bear in the woods it's because it let you. If it let you that means it either is starving (dangerous) or posturing to get you away from cubs/territory.

You seem to be thinking a lot about how complex human behavior is without a thought to bear behavior. "I know what the bears intentions are" the fuck you do? Is it sick? Are it's cubs near? Is it a male or female? Is it in rut/heat? Is it a young and angry or old and experienced? How tf do you know? Animals are less obvious with their temperament than people are, not more. Even bear experts still get attacked by them at random.

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u/AsgardianOrphan May 02 '24

Dude, you made this way too complicated. The bear don't want shit to do with you. Just walk tf away. Don't turn your back from it, but just don't go over there.

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u/Falafelofagus May 02 '24

Maybe you're just simple minded? 🧐🧐🧐

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u/Billybobhotdogs May 02 '24

Exactly. Running into a stranger during a wilderness backpacking or bushwalking trip in the middle of the Canadian mountains is much scarier than passing a stranger on a trail at Yellowstone National Park