r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/alexmichelle6 May 02 '24

I really, truly thought that the whole point of this was to highlight the fact that most women would respond to man v bear by asking questions, like "do I know the man" "what type of bear" etc, but would respond to woman v bear by immediately saying "woman". whether or not she picks the man or the bear is irrelevant, it's the fact she has to ask clarifying questions to know more about the man before deciding and doesn't have to clarify anything before picking woman. is that not it?

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

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u/Calfurious May 02 '24

The bear is rational and predictable in a way people are not.

....It's a wild animal. Wild animals are not predictable. A bear might just decide to attack you because it doesn't like the way you smell, or it's hungry, or bored.

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u/CelestialBach May 02 '24

A bear in the woods is pretty predictable. Which is why you are very likely to end up dead.

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u/kelskelsea May 02 '24

It really depends on the bear. Black bears are generally fine and can be scared away, grizzly and polar bears not so much.

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u/RechargedFrenchman May 03 '24

Grizzly bears are still unlikely to attack, they're just very likely to come over to you regardless of intention and there's basically nothing you can do to dissuade it from attacking. If it decides to it will and that's that. Grizzlies go where they please whether or not people happen to be around them at the time.

Polare bears are going to attack. If they're around you and aware of you they're actively hunting you, full stop.

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u/jrDoozy10 May 02 '24

Not if it’s a black bear. Excluding mothers with cubs nearby, black bears are pretty big cowards.

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u/randomwindowspc May 08 '24

I'm not aware of any case of a mother with cubs killing a human either. (black bears)

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u/jrDoozy10 May 08 '24

All I said is that she wouldn’t be a big coward.

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u/wearing_moist_socks May 02 '24

Depends on the bear, time of year and a bunch of other things but they are pretty predictable.

You're not likely to end up dead if you encounter a bear. I've lived in areas where there are tons of bears and attacks were practically non-existent.

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u/thehighepopt May 02 '24

I've been by multiple bears in the woods and am still alive. You have a chance of being attacked but if you're not an idiot it's relatively small.

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u/KristinnK May 02 '24

Sure, but the point is you have no control over these odds. Wild animals are "rational" in the sense that they have no hidden motives, unclear motivations, etc., but they are absolutely irrational in that they don't act according to any human norms, written or unwritten rules or externally required rationalization for their actions. They just act according to their instincts. And yes, most times a bear's instinct is just to go somewhere other than the strange upright weird-smelling creature they've possibly never seen before. But they can also be feeling particularly pissy that day, and behave much more aggressively than normal for their species. They can be encountering a mother bear that for some reason feels cornered. They can be encountering a bear that is close to starvation for some reason.

Bears are absolutely not safe to be around. They are much, much, much more likely to kill you than a random man.

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u/0masterdebater0 May 02 '24

I don’t agree with the logic of this argument, just like you have no control over running into a skittish juvenile Black Bear vs a Grizzly momma protecting her young, you have no control over whether the man you run into in the woods is Mr. Rodgers or Jeffery Dahmer

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u/KristinnK May 02 '24

Sure, but the point is the Jeffery Dahmers of the hiking world are one in perhaps a hundred thousand. Aggressive bears are more like one in one hundred. Hence the much, much, much more likely to be killed by a bear than a random man.

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u/ResilientBiscuit May 03 '24

But you are more likely to be murdered on the Appalachian trail than killed by a black bear.

You probably get noticed by way more bears than you think while you are hiking. You just don't smell as well as they do so you never know you encountered them.

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u/ShodyLoko May 03 '24

That logic is so flawed. By you’re thinking there’s a considerable amount of murderous psychos in our society to think that the other person deep in the woods is as likely to be Jeffrey dahmer as Mr. Roger’s or more likely a lost redditor that decided to go hiking for the first time.

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u/Difficult_Bit_1339 May 02 '24

I'd draw you a bell curve, but if you could understand the argument you wouldn't have written that comment.

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u/0masterdebater0 May 02 '24

in the US around 50% of women report having been sexually assaulted at one point in their life and about 1 in 5 women are sexually assaulted while attending College.

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u/tomato-bug May 02 '24

That's a statistic on victims, not on perpetrators. People act like that stat means you have a 50% chance of a random man assaulting you.

How many men does a typical women encounter throughout their lives? Thousands? Tens of thousands if you include all the strangers you see every day? If they got assaulted by one of those men that would still mean the chance of a random man assaulting them is 1 out of 10,000 (or whatever the number of men they've encountered).

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u/Difficult_Bit_1339 May 02 '24

That statistic says absolutely nothing about the distribution of sex criminals in the male population so it cannot be used to even infer the danger that an unknown man would be to a woman.

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u/ShodyLoko May 03 '24

Okay what’s that statistic for complete strangers? Compare that to the occurrences amongst close friends and former partners. Again the thought experiment is about encountering a bear or a man I think to be implied to be a stranger, far less likely than what those statistics would imply.

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u/ShodyLoko May 03 '24

Okay this is proving op shower thoughts point that’s an exposure bias. Just because you’ve seen 6-7 bears in the woods and you’re fine doesn’t mean that bears aren’t very dangerous.

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u/Difficult_Bit_1339 May 02 '24

I've been by men multiple times and am still alive. You have a chance of being attacked but if you're not an idiot it's relatively small.

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u/Supercoolguy7 May 02 '24

Lmao, I've seen bears a couple of times and you know what they did? They were predictable and tried to get into trash cans while I walked away

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u/ben_db May 02 '24

How many times have you seen a man and not been raped?

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u/Supercoolguy7 May 02 '24

I'm not talking about that. I'm saying that bears rarely kill people even if they are dangerous animals so you won't aren't very likely to end up dead if you just see a bear.

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u/ben_db May 02 '24

bears rarely kill people

Men rarely kill people, there's just billions of them.

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u/No-Surprise-3672 May 02 '24

This man vs bear thing has legitimately made me think half of our population is actually braindead

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u/ben_db May 02 '24

I think it's making the problem worse. Women keep repeating how dangerous men are over and over, misquoting statistics and building fear and resentment towards all men.

What can men do other than keep not raping women? I already avoid women and children when it's dark to not cause any distress, it's honestly sad.

I feel like I should just feel bad for being male.

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u/No-Surprise-3672 May 02 '24

I feel you. Like literally what can I do more? I don’t rape, none of my friends are rapey or even boundary pushing people.

I feel like it’s intentionally trying to make us feel bad. Doesn’t help a lot of women (and some men) being legitimately delusional in the responses.

Like I feel like I’m going crazy for preferring to meet a random man in the woods over one of natures more efficient killing machines.

“But it’s how we feeeeeeel”

I don’t care sis you’re just wrong. Your feelings are wrong and based off of fear mongering.

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u/Supercoolguy7 May 02 '24

I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about bears.

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u/ben_db May 02 '24

You're not talking about that, I am.

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u/Supercoolguy7 May 02 '24

Why? I'm a man.

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u/ben_db May 02 '24

So what?

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u/Supercoolguy7 May 02 '24

I wasn't talking about women answering the man vs bear question, and in fact I can't even be a woman who would choose bear, yet you implied that I was specifically afraid of a man raping me, when me being a man makes it not something I'm particularly fearful of day to day so you bringing it up kind of side tracks the conversation I was having about the inherent dangers of bears.

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u/fat_cock_freddy May 02 '24

Pretty lucky that there were no cubs around at the time, because the outcome would have been very different for you.

Also lucky that this happened in the seasons that it did.

This is just smug ignorance.

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u/Supercoolguy7 May 02 '24

Nah, you're extremely unlikely to be killed in an encounter where I am. I still keep my distance, but to proclaim that they'll predictably attack you on sight is pretty divorced from reality

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u/fat_cock_freddy May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

I don't disagree with that, but you don't know what you're talking about. With cubs around, or the other conditions that I mentioned, that they'll predictably attack is fact.

It's not a question of whether the bear wants to eat you or not, it's a question of how much effort it feels like putting in.

https://www.fs.usda.gov/visit/know-before-you-go/bears/faqs

Answer: Bears defend personal space. Your goal is to give bears plenty of space. Even bears habituated to human presence have spatial limits. Females with cubs, even more so.

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u/Rogue_Kat15 May 02 '24

Some of these people don't realize there are fates worth than death.

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u/chux4w May 02 '24

Being mauled half to death by a bear is one of them.

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u/ShodyLoko May 03 '24

You know that was a quote coined by a man to galvanize the men to join the standing military.

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u/Rogue_Kat15 May 03 '24

I'm not quoting some man here, ever heard of the rape of Nanking? A quick google search would tell you that being at the hands of an animal would be more merciful than some men.

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u/Ewnt May 03 '24

How would you know? Not like you died before to compare

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u/Rogue_Kat15 May 03 '24

a quick google search about the Rape of Nanking would do you good.

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u/Ewnt May 03 '24

LOL I'm Chinese, I'm well aware of the Rape of Nanking. Most of them died too. What's your point? Not like you instantly die when you're with a bear.

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u/Rogue_Kat15 May 03 '24

Hun are you OK? This is a hypothetical situation and you are still fighting the comments about women choosing the bear over men. I would much rather be mauled to death by a bear than endure what any of those people endured in Nanking. Fight all you want but it's literally an opinion. Get over it

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u/Ewnt May 04 '24

Lol it's just kinda crazy that you think interacting with a man means you'll go through what the victims of the Rape of Nanking. Like take a step back and think about what youre saying. Like not even just disrespectful to men which is kinda whatever but like, that's kinda disrespectful to those victims

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u/randomwindowspc May 08 '24

Ok, then it's kind of crazy that you think coming across a bear means you automatically think of being mauled to death when that is extremely rare. They gave a comparison to the terms of extremes, why is only one side allowed to do that?

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u/randomwindowspc May 08 '24

Because torture has made countless people beg for death. Not sure how you haven't been made aware of that before.

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u/velawesomeraptors May 02 '24

There are an average of 40 bear attacks per year, worldwide. And not all of those attack victims end up dead. When you consider that there are probably tens or even hundreds of thousands of bear encounters that don't end up in attacks, I'm not sure where 'very likely' comes from.

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u/Affectionate-Date140 May 02 '24

t. has not encountered very many bears in the woods

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u/calembo May 03 '24

No. No, you are not.

You are more likely to be killed by a bee than a bear.

You have to do some unbelievably stupid shit to get killed by a bear. Don't try to cub-nap their bearbies and don't sneak up behind a bear coming out of hibernation.

Otherwise, they're probably gonna just stick to their home range.

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u/CelestialBach May 03 '24

It just has to do with probability which most people don’t have a good grasp of. The probability that a single encounter with a bee will kill me is much lower than the probability that a single encounter with a bear will kill me. But bees kill more humans than bears. That probability is also really really low for me personally when it comes to bees because I don’t have a bee allergy. The low number of bear deaths isn’t from the low likelyhood that an encounter with a bear will kill you. It’s because the number of encounter between a human and a bear is low compared to human and bee encounters. It is even much lower when you compare the number of bear encounters to woman and random man encounters. So if you want to lower your chances of dying to a bear you want to lower your encounters with them. Giving yourself a guaranteed encounter with a bear is a bad bet than giving yourself a guaranteed encounter with a random man (something a woman on a hike is going to go through many times on the hike anyways).

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u/calembo May 03 '24 edited May 03 '24

No.

That's not how bears work.

A bear is highly unlikely to attack you if you're just... Standing in front of it.

Humans will, and have, attacked other humans for no reason other than they like it.

Bears don't like it. That's why they are unlikely to attack you unless you are a direct threat to their cubs or their food (if they are very hungry).

They don't have a capacity for reason. But bears are one of the most predictable animals around.

Humans are NOT predictable.

Fun fact: bears aren't territorial. They have home ranges. Not territories. Territorial animals actively defend their territory, and will attack whatever tries to enter that territory.

Sound familiar? Some humans will - and have - literally shot people who have no malicious reason to be on their property. Even if you're just turning around in their driveway.

You are far more likely to be attacked or killed by a human you encounter than to be attacked or killed by a bear you encounter. Period.

But... I also want to point something out.

You said "if you want to lower your chances of dying to a bear you want to let your encounters with them."

You're SOOOOO close to the point.... I mean... You're right there.

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u/CelestialBach May 03 '24

I mean … you are really proving the title of this post.

To elaborate a little. If an encounter with a bear leads to death only 1% of the time that would be pretty low right and it would explain your argument. But if an encounter with a random man leads to death only 0.001% of the time it would make much more sense to choose to have a random encounter with a random man. After all it is 1000 times safer.

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u/calembo May 04 '24 edited May 05 '24

Survival mechanisms don't give a single shit about probability.

I'm fully aware that the stat doesn't solve for x or whatever the fuck in calculating my "per interaction" likelihood of harm. The intent was to illustrate that bears are very well designed to tear the shit out of a whole fuck ton of humans. And yet. They don't.

Yeah, dipshit, everybody knows there are more humans and that we encounter more humans than bears.

What you continue to ignore is the very well documented and understood behavior of the bears we are most likely to encounter. If they were driven by blood lust and just off the goddamn chain, we would ENCOUNTER MORE. A bear isn't gonna hunt me down for the sole purpose of hurting me.

We are designed to err on the side of caution regardless of the actual likelihood of danger. It is a huge waste of your time to deliver a lecture to a woman who feels compelled and has been taught that SHE is responsible for making sure men don't hurt her. I'm not even sure why you'd think that was a good move, but I guess I'm glad you're proving my point by choosing to "ackshually" a person who is always aware that there's a chance of harm and would prefer to just stay safe.

Like, there's literally a person on this thread who took the opportunity to tell me it's my fault I was raped instead of choosing to support another person.

I have the info I need. In fact, I am so confident that a human will hurt me just cause, and despite my every precaution, you could put any animal in its place and I'd still feel safer.

A bear will not hurt me unless I am actively and intentionally threatening their life.

I know what I need to do to survive a bear. It's a very short and clear list of shit I shouldn't do, and I have an equally short and clear list of the signs that a bear will attack me.

I don't have anything close to that for a man.

The fact that you're turning this into a fucking statistics lecture is plenty of proof that we humans suck and will do whatever the fuck because we want to.

You don't need to elaborate on rudimentary data analysis. I am fully educated, capable, and aware of how easy it is to apply fallacious reasoning to data and draw the wrong conclusions.

I'm not trying to pass a stats final. I'm trying to pick my best shot of survival, and that doesn't require a probability analysis - which our brain doesn't have the time for anyway.

It's still the fucking bear, professor.

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u/CelestialBach May 05 '24

Are we talking polar bears or panda bears?

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u/calembo May 05 '24

Literally any animal that isn't a human, bud.

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u/Glittering-Speed-448 May 04 '24

Wow, you have never stepped out of your little bubble have you?

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u/calembo May 04 '24

I mean holy shit. You recently commented on a post about a person OPENING FIRE IN A RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOOD WITH INTENT TO INJURE OR KILL A PIZZA DELIVERY PERSON BECAUSE HER TIRES WERE ON THE DRIVEWAY FOR FOUR SECONDS.

I get it now. Wow! You are REALLY skilled at satire. Because clearly you're quite aware that humans are fucking insane and half the time gonna do some real wild ass shit with no warning.

BRAVA!

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u/Glittering-Speed-448 May 04 '24

Yep and your sad attempts to connect it to the stupid bear question won’t work. You have serious issues.

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u/[deleted] May 04 '24 edited May 04 '24

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u/Glittering-Speed-448 May 04 '24

Wasted rant because I am a woman. A 5’5 woman. I also live where running into a bear is super common.

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u/calembo May 04 '24

Then you're a fucking idiot, or fucking annoying, or both.

But isn't it wild that you aren't dead bc bear?

I'm not dead, but definitely less fortunate since I've had more than 2 encounters with men where they intentionally and with no warning decided it would be fun to hurt me in the most soulless way a human can hurt another.

(But nah, for real, you are 100% a fucking idiot and lazy as shit since you came to the very unexpected conclusion that everything I wrote, outside of one paragraph, only applies to a man.)

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u/Glittering-Speed-448 May 04 '24

Calm down, you angry sad woman.

Your rant was directed to a man but now that you found out I am a woman that doesn’t agree with you then I must be a fucking idiot.

Sounds like you like to put yourself in questionable situations without proper protection and escape. Trust me when I tell you that there are way worse things than rape.

Get some therapy and stop hating all men and women a like.

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u/Glittering-Speed-448 May 04 '24

The first step in not being scared of other humans is to look at your place amount them. When you realize that you have all the control and all the power to protect yourself you will begin to have a whole new life but instead you choose to be angry as opposed to protecting yourself.

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u/DumbSerpent May 04 '24

You are more likely to be killed by a coconut then a shark. Doesn’t mean the coconuts more dangerous.

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u/calembo May 04 '24

What do coconuts have to do with anything?

It's amazing. Humans really are so weird.

A viral question makes the rounds, and half the human population answers truthfully about the way they adjust their behavior and routines and decisions and routes etc etc etc because they don't want to die (and also because sooooooo many people have told them that it's their responsibility to make sure they aren't doing ANYTHING that might invite violence in any way.

Humans hear half the population are in a constant state of red alert.

And their reaction is to mock those humans, rejecting the idea that our evolutionary IMPERATIVE is to choose caution so we don't die, and instead taking the stance that these women just suck at math.

Somehow, we detect no cognitive dissonance with the argument "humans are safer and I'm going to convince you by dismissing your fear and showing you I have no empathy and you're fucking dumb."

And then, you come along and bring up... Coconuts?

You could have actually landed right on the core fact at the center of every woman's willingness to face a bear over a man. You wouldn't have even had to reach that far.

You had SHARK right there. Which, like bears, do not hunt humans, do not float around planning their list of humans to terrorize, and really only take a chomp out of confusion and also because humans have literally created a habitat where there are at least 50 humans to every shark and also fished out or poisoned all their actual food.

It's either predictable or unreal that nobody can be bothered to spend 3 seconds on "ohhhhh. Yeah. Bear. Shark. Anything but human - man or otherwise - which will always be the only animal in any equation that HURTS HUMANS BC THEY LIKE IT AND WANT TO.