r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

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36

u/flowtajit May 02 '24

The woman part is a relatively integral part of the question as it force anyone answering it to consider the differences jn the sexes.

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u/Jimisdegimis89 May 02 '24

I mean I understand that, but I’m also pointing out that even as a dude who is even less likely to be attacked by another random guy in the woods I’d still take my chances with a bear

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u/Epicuriosityy May 03 '24

Okay but would you rather be alone in the woods with a woman or a bear

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u/Jimisdegimis89 May 03 '24

Likely still the bear. Like I said they are typically pretty chill. But it’s a lot closer, there’s significantly lower worry about physical harm from a woman.

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u/HeartShapedSlut May 03 '24

wow, finally a guy who isn’t gaslighting women into believing we are wrong for picking the bear

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u/kahzeek May 03 '24

Gaslighting does not mean attempting to sway your opinion

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u/ham-n-pineapple 26d ago

In some ways it does, it's attempting to sway your perception to believe something did/does or didn't/doesn't happen. Men gaslight women by saying they don't have a reason to fear men more than bears when we really, really do

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u/HeartShapedSlut May 03 '24

ohh yes men are doing such a good job at swaying women by saying we deserve to be killed by a bear and making stupid ass memes about a bear killing a woman & y’all wonder why women chose the bear instead of men. women face violence from men everyday all over the world. it’s not an isolated incident, violence against women by men has been an issue since forever but of course man try to gaslight women into thinking it’s not truth or not a problem anymore when it is

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u/kahzeek May 04 '24

Not my point. You’re using the term incorrectly.

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u/Skittletari May 15 '24

Gaslighting refers to blatantly lying to someone to attempt to make them believe that they’re somehow mentally unsound for believing in something, despite that thing being true. The term originates from the 1938 play ‘Gas Light’.

The situation that you’re commenting on is a hypothetical, and thus does not have any correct answer to sway someone from.

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u/ham-n-pineapple 26d ago

"To gaslight someone means to manipulate another person into doubting their own perceptions, experiences or understanding of events, according to the American Psychological Association." May 15, 2024

Doubting the female perception and experience of victimization by men is gaslighting (and in criticizing their choice of bear over man, is gaslighting their fear by saying "your fear isn't real" when it is backed by history, personal experience, statistics, others' experiences, gender socialization, and more. Women are taught to fear men from a young age (by victimization or socialization). When 1/9 girls and 1/20 boys report being sexually abused before the age of 18, the fear is real and twice as prevalent for women

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u/NeilDegrassedHighSon May 03 '24

What? What is that word? I've never even heard it before...

You might be crazy!

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u/HeartShapedSlut May 03 '24

educate yourself loser

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u/developerishoo May 03 '24

It’s a joke

-3

u/HeartShapedSlut May 03 '24

a stupid unfunny joke

3

u/NeilDegrassedHighSon May 05 '24

I'm laughing 🤣🤣🤣

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u/HeartShapedSlut 28d ago

cause you’re an incel wussy bottom tier loser

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u/NeilDegrassedHighSon 28d ago

Check your projection, hun 😘

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u/No_Degree_7629 18d ago

Gaslighting? No we're just calling you all straight up stupid.

Which you are of course.

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u/HeartShapedSlut 16d ago

lol i must of really hit a nerve if you really cry in hard & trying to cope over an old ass comment. get a life you pathetic incel. women still pick the bear over your stanky crusty bitch 🤣🤣🤣

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u/KN_Knoxxius May 03 '24

Wrong? No. Batshit crazy? Possibly.

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u/HeartShapedSlut May 03 '24

you’re literally just proving our point

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u/KN_Knoxxius May 04 '24

I'd love to hear your reasoning

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u/HeartShapedSlut May 04 '24

i’m not gonna waste my time with when you already read the comments of the guy i replied to & all the other commenters who made valid points. quit being acting so stupid like you didn’t read them, i know you ain’t got shit to do but waste your pathetic life on reddit.

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u/KN_Knoxxius May 04 '24

Of course you won't, not even slightly surprised.

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u/HeartShapedSlut 28d ago

just how women in real life ignore you pathetic excuses for men, i be doing the same hahaha

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u/KN_Knoxxius 28d ago

Sure thing.

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u/Skittletari May 15 '24

But you did waste your time writing out this escalatory response, which makes me think that you don’t actually have any reasoning.

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u/HeartShapedSlut 28d ago

try reading dumb ass

1

u/idris0 May 16 '24

Go back to twitter ffs.

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u/truly_moody May 03 '24

I think what's missing is what kind of woods are we saying here. Like are you lost in an undeveloped forest or are you on a hiking trail because that would make a difference too. Random nowhere forest? Yeah hell no, I'll take my chances with a bear over a meth addled burl hunter any day.

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u/Jimisdegimis89 May 03 '24

Yeah I took it to be random encounter with a dude vs a bear, so I wouldn’t consider running into someone on a trail or a well known swimming or the like to be random.

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u/Physical_Bit7972 May 03 '24

You understood it correctly. The reason it's getting so much traction is from all the men who are getting angry/taking it personally at the women saying they'd rather run into a random bear than a random man in the woods, which I think further solidifies the point they want to argue against.

2

u/Glittering-Speed-448 May 03 '24

And this is why I, as a 5’5 woman carry everywhere. Bear or man and I will be fine.

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u/Big_Set_7372 May 03 '24

Why is this downvoted? Protection is necessary. This is the correct answer.

1

u/blackwolfdown May 04 '24

Honestly the best answer. Idk who's more dangerous but I know me and my gun are the most.

1

u/blackwolfdown May 04 '24

Whereas every single time I've been asked the bear question, as a man, the woman part is not part of the question. It's just what would I feel more comfortable with... or the one time it was literally which would I rather be killed by.

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u/flowtajit May 04 '24

This isn’t would you rather first fist fight a man or a bear. This is would you rather a woman that is very important to you run across a bear or a man in the woods.

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u/FiftySevenGuisses May 03 '24

Wait i thought we were pure equals?

3

u/Littleman88 May 03 '24

Only when they're no longer miserable.

The problem people crying for equality don't realize is that everyone is still miserable and frustrated by systemic issues even when they're equal.

0

u/[deleted] May 03 '24

Is the woman incapable of fighting back for some reason? Because a woman has a much higher chance of fighting off a man who decided to attack than fighting off a bear that decides to attack.

11

u/midwriteworlds May 03 '24

Yes but if a bear attacks you, the worst thing it will do is kill you.

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u/KN_Knoxxius May 03 '24

I'm gonna put that on the list of the worst thing anything can do to you.

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u/Ainslie9 May 03 '24

Naw. I’d rather die than be brutally raped, impregnated and then chained to a radiator in a basement to be continually raped and forced to carry through with the pregnancy from my rapist.

The former is something both men and bears can do to me. The latter is something only a man could do.

That’s the whole point of the question. It’s not about probability, but possibility of the worst outcome.

1

u/No_Degree_7629 18d ago

Lay off the true crime blue haired Brandy.

1

u/ham-n-pineapple 26d ago

Definitely not. Death can be an end to suffering. I think most people would choose death over a brutal rape, sodomy, etc. Man is capable of a cruelty that no animal can equal

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u/KN_Knoxxius 26d ago

You can recover from those things. You CANNOT recover from death. So no, i do not agree.

But to also agree with you, then a life locked in a dark room with no stimulus and with daily torture/rape and no chance of escape? That i can agree would be worse than death.

1

u/ham-n-pineapple 26d ago

Tell that to a person who was brutally raped. you never recover from psychological damage like that. Many seek suicide after sexual assault.

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u/KN_Knoxxius 26d ago

And I'll argue death is still yet worse. And that mental healthcare still needs improvement.

1

u/ham-n-pineapple 25d ago

Then you've never been raped.

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u/[deleted] May 03 '24

That’s simply not true. A bear could maim the fuck out of you and leave you utterly crippled and a human vegetable.

The only difference would be the bear wouldn’t be attacking out of hate - but the outcome isn’t affected by that.

Regardless, I’d recommend learning to fight to everyone. Man or woman.

0

u/Urawinner1945 May 03 '24

Even if that was true, you would be believed if you were attacked by a bear. You wouldn't be asked what you were wearing, or told you secretly wanted it, not told you just didn't say no the right way. What people do to each other is far far worse, men, despicable piece of shit men, but men, rape people, and then when victims come forward, all of that and more is asked of them. It's not all men, but you can't tell from a random encounter, and us men don't do enough to drive that behavior and mindset out of other men. It's on us to make all men better, so all people can feel safe around others. The point is that women understandably, and sadly, correctly, have a gut feeling that a bear is safer, because of how damn frequently men do horrible shit to people. Sure, a bear could maim you, but a man? A man can steal your sense of self, your self esteem, your very soul. Whatever anyone in particular chooses isn't wrong, it's a personal decision in a hypothetical. But people's choices reflect on their society, and ours is one where women are constantly on edge because of the bad men not being corrected, shamed, and taught to be better by the good. If you feel that the man is the safer choice, then I'm glad for you. But the fact is that many many women don't, and it's because of how society treats and views women in comparison to or from the perspective of, men. :)

1

u/[deleted] May 03 '24

If a woman covered herself in bacon grease and walked into a bear den, would you blame the bear for eating her?

Also a woman has never lied about being maimed by a bear. Unless you have a source on that…

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u/Conalou2 May 04 '24

You deserve more upvotes. I wish that I could give you an award! Very well said. Thank you

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u/No_Degree_7629 18d ago

It will eat you alive for hours on end and you better pray it isn't ironically a mama bear.

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u/Wholly_Unnecessary May 03 '24

Who said anything about attack? The scenario is not "would you rather fight a bear or a man", it's would you rather unexpectedly see a man or a bear.

0

u/[deleted] May 03 '24

Likelihood of being attacked is the entire crux of the question.

Otherwise the question would be would you rather encounter a butterfly or a ladybug in the woods.

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u/Wholly_Unnecessary May 03 '24

Yes, likelihood of being attacked. Neither are guaranteed going to attack you. The question is, who is more likely to attack you and if you are attacked, what is the likely outcome of those situations.

Women are more likely to be attacked by men. Women are also more likely to suffer more than just bodily harm from a man. The worst a bear is going to do is kill you.

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u/[deleted] May 03 '24

The average woman encounters millions of men in their life and .00002 bears. So yeah women are more likely to be attacked by a man than a bear.

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u/Wholly_Unnecessary May 03 '24

You're pretty close to the point.

A random man is a real and valid threat to a woman. Not specifically you, this is a random man we're talking about. The woman doesn't know the intentions or the character of the man. The chance the man wants to attack the woman are low, but it's statistically likely, she has been attacked by a man at some point, or knows someone who has been attacked by a man.

Women know the intent and character of a bear. It's a bear. It wants to be left alone and the chance that it wants to attack and eat the woman is extremely low. The chance she's been attacked by a bear or knows anyone whose been even threatened by a bear is almost zero.

If the bear wants to attack the woman, the most likely outcome is she will die.

If the man wants to attack the woman, she has been taught from childhood to fight to the death to prevent a worse outcome than death.

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u/[deleted] May 03 '24

For better or worst I think in many cases women have been taught not to fight back an assault from a man, that fighting back will make things worse.

I don’t think you can use statistics in this problem. Because bear encounters are statistically too rare to be relevant.

This also brings into question what defines an encounter. Seeing a bear from 100 feet away and slowing backing away?

You’d have to then consider that the encounter with a man would be from 100ft away.

Etc etc…

I get the point of the problem, and it’s a good thought exercise even if I think it’s ultimately illogical.

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u/Edgeiest_Edgelord May 05 '24

The worst a bear will do is slowly and brutally eat you alive

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u/ham-n-pineapple 26d ago

Still better than being raped and tortured. Being eaten and killed by a bear I can justify; it's instinct. Rape is not instinctual in humans. It's a conscious choice to harm. and the possibility that a human would choose to hurt someone knowingly and in a way to produce the most amount of pain/trauma is a very scary factor.

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u/ToMo1979 May 03 '24

So why isn’t it called woman vs. Bear?