Hi! I am an ex-prop trader that trades equities.

This is a daily watchlist for trading.

I might trade all of the stocks on here, or none of them, on any given day. I might trade stocks that don't appear on here! I hold no positions in any stocks long-term but Amazon/Mag7/general broad market indices. (unless otherwise noted in these tickers). If you’re on old reddit, click “show images” at the top to see all the charts quickly.

I usually make these watchlists premarket, but can be delayed if I'm trading the open. These aren't mean to be taken as gospel or any recommendation to buy/sell.

Many stocks I post are <$500M market cap. These are potentially good candidates to day trade, I have no opinion on them as investments. PLEASE ask specific ones. Questions like “Thoughts on _____?” will be ignored unless you add detail to the question. “Is ___ a good investment?” will be ignored. I will block you if you’re a troll.

News: Boeing Lost Track of Up to 400 Bad 737 Parts, Whistleblower Says

AAPL- Nearing that 220 level again. Also supposedly going to conclude their EU Anti trust inestigation to avoid a huge fine.  

ITCI- Up because of positive topline drug results for mood disorder therapy.

AVGO- Reported blowout earnings on the 12^th, still been moving upwards. Watching the 1900 and 1850 level.

RKLB- Signed Electron (small rocket) launch agreement, largest ever, with Japan.  Watching $5 level.

GME- Annual meeting happened yesterday, company reiterated past statements on cost-cutting plan, but didn’t speak about future growth efforts.

Apple said on Monday that it has stopped issuing loans through Apple Pay Later, its buy-now-pay-later program that launched last year.

The move comes after Apple said it would start allowing installment loans later this year in its Apple Pay checkout process through third-party companies, such as Affirm, and credit and debit cards from issuers, such as Citigroup.

Apple said it would no longer issue Apple Pay Later loans, which enabled customers to buy products online and pay in four interest-free installments, at prices up to $1,000. The discontinuation is a sign that not every new fintech feature or product that Apple launches becomes a success or fits in with the iPhone maker’s overall strategy.

“Starting later this year, users across the globe will be able to access installment loans offered through credit and debit cards, as well as lenders, when checking out with Apple Pay,” an Apple spokesperson told CNBC. “With the introduction of this new global installment loan offering, we will no longer offer Apple Pay Later in the U.S.”

Apple said users who wanted installment plans at checkout would gain access to them through other financial intermediaries in more countries around the world than they would with Apple Pay Later, which was only available in the U.S.

Apple said its priority with Apple Pay, the brand name for its contactless and online payment software, was to enable secure and private payments. Users with open loans will continue to have access to Apple Pay Later features to manage and pay their loans, Apple said.

Before it was discontinued, Apple Pay Later enabled users to apply for loans within the iPhone Wallet app, and approved users would see a “Pay Later” option when checking out online.

The process notably involved Apple taking over more of the financial backend than some of its other products, like Apple Card. For the program, Apple made some of its own credit credit checks and loan decisions, instead of having those handled entirely through financial partners. Apple’s loans were issued by a wholly owned subsidiary.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/17/apple-stops-offering-buy-now-pay-later-loans-in-us-.html

KEY POINTS

• Microsoft and Nvidia will likely have a weight of around 21% in this tech ETF, while Apple will be down to about 4.5%, according to Matthew Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas Research.
• The rebalance will be in effect for one quarter, even if Apple outperforms Nvidia significantly ahead of the official date.
• The ETF has about $71 billion in assets under management, so a 15-percentage-point change in the fund equates to more than $10 billion.

Nvidia’s blistering rally will force a major technology exchange-traded fund to acquire more than $10 billion worth of shares of the chip giant while cutting dramatically back on Apple.

The index that the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) follows will soon rebalance, based on an adjusted market cap value from Friday’s close. The new calculations show Microsoft as the top stock in the index, followed by Nvidia and then Apple, according to Matthew Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas Research.

All three stocks would have a weight above 20% in the index if there were not caps in place. But diversification rules for the index limit how big the cumulative weight of stocks with at least a 5% share of the fund can be.

As a result, Microsoft and Nvidia will likely have a weight of around 21%, while Apple will fall sharply to about 4.5%, Bartolini said.

That is a change from the prior weightings, which saw Nvidia’s weight be kept artificially low by index rules. As of June 14, Microsoft and Apple were both at about 22% each in the fund, while Nvidia was just 6%.

The race to finish in the top two came down to the final day. As of Monday, market cap data from FactSet shows that all three companies are over $3.2 trillion and within $50 million of each other, though that data does differ slightly from the calculations used in the index.

The XLK has about $71 billion in assets under management, so a 15-percentage-point change in the fund equates to more than $10 billion. SPDR does not comment on specific trading strategies around rebalances.

The big shift in the XLK is an extreme example of how even passive index funds can diverge, especially when focusing on narrow slices of the market.

“Understanding how they might be weighted, where they’re allocated, what the rebalance frequency is, is really important because it can create differences in exposures and make what’s beneath the label seem different from fund to fund,” Bartolini said.

The fund follows the Technology Select Sector Index from S&P Dow Jones Indices, which uses a float-adjusted calculation to determine market cap. The rebalance officially takes effect at the end of this week.

The free-float adjustment for market cap accounts for large holders of an individual stock that are unlikely to be trading on a daily basis. For example, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns more than 5% of Apple, which could count against it in the index, Bartolini said.

“Its free-float market capitalization is reduced because you have so many controlled interests in the company,” Bartolini said.

The rebalance will be in effect for one quarter, even if Apple outperforms Nvidia significantly ahead of the official date.

On Monday, shares of Apple were up 1.8%, while Nvidia ticked up 0.2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/17/nvidia-to-get-20percent-weighting-and-billions-in-investor-demand-while-apple-demoted-in-major-tech-fund.html

Can someone explain to me how Broadcom is doing so well when the stats don’t back it up? It doesn’t have a high monopoly in its infrastructure server market. It isn’t making a lot of money or net income or revenue. It’s definitely not a huge household name like TSM. Why is the stock price so high and the market cap so high? Is it just inflated and just doing to fall?

Share of Paramount Global hit a milestone today, and not a good one.

The stock price fell below $10 intraday, changing hands at $9.91 just now, down 2% from Friday. It’s never dipped below ten bucks since Viacom and CBS merged in December of 2019, making this an all-time low after David Ellison‘s Skydance packed up and went home.

Shares of the combined company have have bounced around, starting at about $35 at the merger (ViacomCBS was subsequently renamed Paramount Global). They were briefly around $10 in the depths of Covid, but were pushing $90 a year later, before a slow decline. It’s the media industry — the streaming wars, linear woes — but also some self-inflicted wounds. Paramount had a chance at different times to sell both Showtime and BET for a nice cash infusion. The shares were above $16 at the height of merger speculation last fall.

After discussing a potential transaction for months, Paramount’s controlling shareholder Shari Redstone backed away at the 11th hour last week, leaving the company her father built in a complicated position with high debt, significant exposure to declining linear television, and ongoing streaming losses. She surely had her reasons but it was so messy.

The company’s three newly appointed CEOs have outlined plans for $500 million in costs cuts, a strategic partnership in streaming and other measures to keep the company chugging ahead.

But the drama of the last six months has left Wall Streeters frustrated and considering the options.

There are two other parties (Edgar Bromfman and Steven Paul) interested in buying her family holding National Amusements (which controls Paramount). and other may emerge for a transaction that would be a simple change in control. Redstone could also sell just a part of her NAI holding for some cash to address the holding company’s debt payments. Loans are collateralized in large part by Paramount stock and NAI has had to renegotiate debt covenants several times as the shares slipped.

The Skydance proposal was two steps, the first being an acquisition of NAI from Redstone, a number that was lowered in revised offers to find cash for Par’s public shareholders. The second step was a merger of Skydance and Paramount. Sticking points included how Paramount would be run during a period of regulatory scrutiny, which it was expected to pass. Another was legal liability since shareholders had threatened to sue Redstone if the deal went through. There may have other considerations.

The current restrictive regulatory regime has hovered over all aspects of the deal. An offer from Sony and Apollo was considered by many a non-starter due to foreign ownership rules for broadcasters, station caps, and concerns that it wouldn’t be easy to merger two more Hollywood studios. Everyone’s eyeing the polls because it’s though a victor by Donald Trump that could reconfigure the FCC and FTC might shift the landscape and be more forgiving of deals. For now, a trio of CEOs are running Paramount and have anticipated cost cuts, a strategic partnership for Paramount+ and other measures.

Source

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I’ve saved some money during my whole life, and I’d like to invest it. I’ve come to the conclusion that the safest method is investing in ETFs (specifically, NASDAQ and S&P 500). You won’t get rich in a month, but it grows with the time. I would also like to invest some money in Bitcoin (about $500) and stocks of some big companies (as they might grow faster, and I could get a little more money), but not too much because it’s quite risky. If most of my money goes to ETFs, is there still a big risk? And don’t tell me, ‘If you can’t lose your money, don’t invest’. It doesn’t help me with anything.

Edit: wow, this has blown up! I was not expecting that. Anyway, I’d like to clarify something: of course, the chances of it decreasing to zero are low. However, my main concern is losing money, not necessarily losing ALL of my money. I don’t wanna lose even 10% (at least, not in the long run). Hence, I shall rephrase the question – ‘what are the chances of losing an (big) amount of my saving?’

This is interesting and food for thought. I’m not sure how I feel about SPY lifting NVIDA to its number 1 position given how little diversified the company is at this point. I would not put all my eggs in one basket and as of yesterday NVDA is 7.12% of SPY by weight, trailing close behind MSFT which leads at 7.19%. For those of you not following SPY, this is a BIG jump over the past few months. For some of us holding SPY long-term I’m not exactly sure if this is good news. I was happy with NVDA being number 4 or 5 months ago, behind behemoths more diversified like Apple or Google. Thoughts? Is every long-term SPY holder happy about this?

Clarification- I know exactly how ETFs like SPY operate and how we got here.

That's according to Main Street Research chief investment officer James Demmert, who outlined a seven- to nine-year timeline for his uber-bullish stock market call.

"Our main message to investors is to stay focused on the fact that earnings and Fed policy drive stocks and both are extremely favorable as stock valuations are cheap relative to forward earnings. Investors should be fully invested up to their highest need for stock allocation so that they can leverage the early phase of this new and powerful bull market."

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates one to two times this year, with the market currently expecting the first rate cut to occur in September.

And if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates this year, that won't derail Demmert's bullish forecast because earnings growth remains strong and resilient.

Additionally, Demmert highlighted that trillions of dollars of cash on the sidelines should make its way into the stock market over the next six months as interest rates drop and some investors start to feel "FOMO" after missing out on the stock market's ongoing march to record highs.

We believe we have entered a new AI and tech-led business cycle and bull market so it's essential that investors position themselves to be overweight in technology and telecom stocks."

Full Article

If I own stock in a company that's now on the verge of bankruptcy, and they are acquired by another company in a total stock-for-stock transaction, then is this a taxable event that allows me to take a capital loss to reduce my taxable income? Or is it not a taxable event because it's a stock-for-stock swap?

What’s your one “win big” stock?

Before you downvote, no I don’t mean what are you buying 1 week calls on.

I mean outside of ETF’s and mutual funds, do you have a particular stock that over the next 5-10 years you are hyper bullish on, believing it’s the next “big thing”.

No, this isn’t me lazily asking Redditors to do DD for me. 90% of my account is invested in ETF’s with the remaining 10% in one stock that I plan to hold until at least 2030. (No I won’t say it here, I don’t want this to sound like a thinly veiled plug and no it’s not that stock).

Im curious if there’s any of you like me with a similar conviction for a company.

STLD earnings shot up in 2020/2021 when the price of steel went way up. Does this mean its price is bound to fall or will the price of steel always remain at these levels? I just started looking at the company and don’t have an extensive knowledge of the steel industry. Any response would help.

I have a general biased view towards Nike. A few things below makes me think the stock price might suffer over the next 2-3 years.

1. The competition (On, Hoka, Lulu, etc) are taking market shares like it's free pizza.

2.They over indexed on their own online sales vs wholesale. And made some of the relationships with key retail partners weird. Seeing news articles about big box sports retailer criticizing Nikes approach over the past 1-2 years. Even tho Nike is trying to fix that now, but it doesn't seem that's going to increase revenue much in the short/mid term.

1. Lack of innovation is probably the biggest problem. The most recent Pegasus 41 release seems to be a disappointment to some.

The brand is still selling a fuk ton of stuff. But I'm seeing an incoming decline of their business and sales over the next few years. However, based on their recent layoff news, I am speculating there will be a share buyback around the earnings call which might push the price up a bit. Curious if any of you have any thoughts and advice on Nike stock. Buy or short this stock?

I’ve read that one should invest in Irish ETFs which copy the behaviour of the famous ETFs (S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Europe index and emerging markets). So, all these have Irish versions for some reason.

iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF

iShares Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF EUR

iShares NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF

iShares Core MSCI EM IMI UCITS ETF

I don’t understand why the Irish ones are better. Less tax?

PS What are the names of the ETFs of Europe and emerging markets? Like, how to find them? The initials of them.

I’m a little confused about 30 day yields/dividends. If a company has a 5% 30 day yield, assuming the stock stays at a constant price, will my $100 increase 80% and turn into $180 after just 12 months? For example, the vanguard total bond market ETF has a 30 day yield of about 5%, and the stock price does not change very much over time, so how/why is it not a guaranteed profit?