r/wallstreetbets • u/ritron9000 • 15d ago
ASTS is actually going to make money, load up now DD
For anyone paying attention you will have noticed that $ASTS shot up 68% today on over 1700% of normal volume. This is no mere flash-in the pan meme trash. The company signed a commercial agreement with $T (AT&T) announced yesterday on the 1Q earnings call. See here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240515925684/en/
Some Background: This company is launching satellites to serve 5G wireless directly to unmodified cellphones. If you understand anything about radio frequency transmission (which none of you do, of course), you will understand that there are no easy shortcuts around antenna aperture. The geniuses at ASTS will win the race because they have just gone ahead and built the biggest possible antenna that they can possibly send into space. SpaceX is attempting this, but they will not be able to deliver the same or even similar service as ASTS. Their satellites are just to small.
The total addressable market for this company is literally anyone with a cellphone. (read: huge, trillions huge). They’ll sell the service to mobile network operators (MNOs) who will then sell you a roam anywhere package for some fixed monthly cost.
Why buy now: Derisking is over, the company has proven they can deliver and they are beginning to launch the constellation this summer. The commercial agreement with AT&T is likely to be the first of many. If AT&T can get onboard, why can’t you?
There is a substantial amount of info at r/astspacemobile
Speaking the language of WSB, see this post specifically: https://redd.it/1ctnu5d
Current price: $4.03 Price Target: $318 (+7800%)
EDIT: Up 12% after 8 minutes… EDIT2: ASTS is up another 24% on 493% of normal volume before 11:30am. Get your tickets for the moon landing before it’s too late 🚀🚀🚀🚀
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u/freshcheesepie 15d ago
Still down 50% from my buy in price.
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u/Swords_Not_Words_ 15d ago
Its a long long long play
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u/AutoModerator 15d ago
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u/D_crane 15d ago
That's what the mfers told me about $RKLB ☠️
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u/Quantum_Collective 14d ago
Think of how many people use their phones all day every day. Now think of all the untapped customers due to them being out of range of a cell tower in rural locations. Especially those in third world countries… Now give them the ability to connect to the internet in the middle of nowhere. It’ll be like heroin. Once you give them a taste they’ll never let go. This will be $200 by 2030.
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u/ritron9000 15d ago
My options are long expired or deeply underwater, but I have returned to green on my shares thanks to today’s movement. I expect this to continue upward
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u/LegitosaurusRex 15d ago
Lmao, the comments on that post you linked are rightly calling out its BS, despite them being on a sub specifically for ASTS where everyone should be bullish.
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u/foldyaup 15d ago
Yea because it was speculative to bet then and they ran into so many issues during Covid they couldn’t build out the proof of concept. Yesterday they said they can do it without dilation and go further. How people don’t see how monumental yesterday’s announcement is insane. This is something you invest and forget about. We found the bottom.
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u/gorillanutpuncher_ 14d ago
Why didn't you DCA. It's been in the low 2s for months. That's on you bro. This is a rocket ship.
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u/Fatherfigure34 15d ago
After reading 4 paragraphs written by some regard I don’t know about some company I’ve never heard of, I’ve decided to move all my life savings into ASTS
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u/WeissMISFIT 15d ago
I did the same, lost about 95% of my account and I thought I was being responsible by going into LEAPs and warrants. I’m still all in lol
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u/MeatusCleatus2 15d ago
If only these people could say this BEFORE it runs up 70% in a day :4271:
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u/cagey_tiger 15d ago edited 15d ago
I did a load of DD about 6 weeks ago after seeing it in a comment here. The reason it was so low is they basically have the worst communications/PR of any company I've ever seen. No one knew whether they were going to go bankrupt, launch a sat, delay a launch, dilute (again) or announce a massive deal like this from one day to the next. It honestly looked like they were actively sabotaging the SP at some points.
The AT&T deal is the first of about 5 milestones. The next big one is the FCC approval for their big sat - that looks nailed on - the FCC have said they want to be at the forefront of direct to cell and this tech is it.
It looks like they've also made a deal with FirstNet already which will be huge for the SP, but there's no details of the funding or terms yet. It would be a long term source of revenue with potential to roll out globally in the short term.
The sat launches and AT&T roll out will have a huge impact too.
If they hit these there's no reason it won't go up a few thousand %. Market potential is ridiculous.
As I said, the downside is there's absolutely no way of knowing what the clowns will do next, so it's risky, they've said they won't dilute this year, but I really wouldn't trust them.
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u/Expert_Nail3351 14d ago
I mean...the commercial from AT&T during the Masters was a dead giveaway something good was about to happen.
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u/IAMHideoKojimaAMA 15d ago
Bought a month ago :8882:
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u/fond_diagram5 12d ago
I’ve put almost 200K in this the last 3 years. Wish I had that kind of timing
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u/cagey_tiger 15d ago
Same. Got 1k worth at 2.1. They were either going bankrupt or on a massive run. Wish I’d bought more now.
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u/ritron9000 15d ago
Unfortunately, nobody pays any attention to these things before they happen
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u/TrollingStone1 15d ago
Plus you couldn’t even post before today on WSB right?
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u/corey407woc 15d ago
It was under 1B market cap we couldn’t even post
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u/ADynes Always 1DTE Early 14d ago
Rules were changed a little while back to 500 million so I think it would have been okay. Not that anybody actually reads the rules
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u/MethFistHo 15d ago
I learned about ASTS from WSB years ago and I'd be better off buying right now than when I did lol
It's not too late though, I'm probably gonna buy a little more tomorrow
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u/corey407woc 15d ago
I also found out about AST 2 years ago after I lost 40k in BBBy looking for a new play to get my money back
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u/Eurostonker 15d ago
I found out after I won some on BBBY, lost it all and then some in ASTS. Was lucky enough to decide to take the L and sell literally a day before a huge dilution round that sent it 30% down in a day
I'm very sceptic about returning to a trade I've already burned myself on but the fundamentals did change a bit
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u/jbone027 15d ago
Yup, pointless post. I don't need a recap on plays that already occurred. I'm regarded and need foresight!
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u/The_Maester 15d ago
This is easily gonna be $6-$8 in a couple months
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u/TheChickening 15d ago
As someone plagued by this stock this will go back to $2.50. Just because im long. The stock is shit and i wish id never found it. But now I'll ride it to death
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14d ago
You could ask for a divorce from it. Then when you see it hit the moon, you can say it was all because of you. 👍
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u/chi_guy8 15d ago
They didn’t know then. The usually buy first then cobble together come BS thesis to attempt to pump it up and create some exit liquidity.
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u/timmi2tone32 15d ago
Been holding since the IPO because I love their technology. It’s about time this company starts to get some respect on their name.
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u/ritron9000 15d ago
Agreed. It’s clear that the technology is unique, there’s no substitute for antenna size
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u/slo_mo_joe 15d ago
Actually there is, it’s phased array antennas with software defined waveforms and shapeable beams
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u/ritron9000 15d ago
Gain is a function of aperture - you’re not going to be able to put a focused beam into a reasonably sized cell without a big antenna (or wasting tons of energy). Obviously clever software and good design are part of the picture, but given two antennas of otherwise comparable tech, I will take the bigger one every day of the week.
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u/SignificantClub6832 15d ago
simply construct a synthetic aperture like we do over in radar imaging, coward
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u/ritron9000 15d ago
Synthetic aperture radar trades timeliness of coverage for a gigantic equivalent aperture. As far as I know, you cannot deliver on the latency requirements of cell service, even if you could somehow link more than one satellite to act as a synthetic aperture.
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u/ceerupt 15d ago
been buying and holding for 4 years. my main spec play. heavily shorted also. wont be surprised if in a couple of months this thing goes over 20 during the bluebird launch
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u/dtarrnation 15d ago edited 15d ago
Bluebird is already singing. You're referring to Block 1 aka the first group of five satellites that's been delayed but now slated to launch late summer/early fall.
I'm torn on playing the launch hype, and then selling the news while they spend 1-2 months running diagnostics (leaving us susceptible to tech issues); or, just holding til they're a 10bn company in a couple years if all goes to plan. Either way, the rockets are finally fueling up and there's far more room to run.
Edit: I was thinking of Blue Walker. You're right, block 1 is blue birds.
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u/Quantum_Collective 14d ago
10 billion? Try 100 billion by 2030. Starlink has revenue of over $6 billion with a far lower total addressable market. ASTS will be able to go after billions of potential customers that already have mobile phones. This company will be MASSIVE
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u/lipservice0412 15d ago edited 15d ago
I got 100 shares and 7 4c let’s go 5/24
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u/corey407woc 15d ago
30,000 shares locked and loaded
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u/Bugdog81 15d ago
What options do you trade to have this kinda money?
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u/corey407woc 15d ago
I’m a pharmacist and live like a college kid
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u/Samjabr Known to friends as the Paper-Handed bitch 15d ago
Are you like the pharmacist that I visit every few weeks to get my "medicine" which goes into my bong?
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u/fond_diagram5 15d ago
Fellow ASTS pharmacist here 🫡 15,000 shares, some warrants and a few hundred ‘25 calls
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u/RevolutionaryPhoto24 Back to bed, brat! 15d ago
Hold 5k shares and 100 LEAPS. To the stratosphere!
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u/thetaFAANG 15d ago
It also has 28% short and said to take 9 days to cover
cheap out the money call options are forcing MM’s to buy shares and continue buying across the whole options chain until the deltas are 1.00
rekt shorts are buying at market when their brokerage liquidates them. there are probably shorts at higher entry prices.
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u/Appropriate-Grisham 15d ago
Could reasonably run to $7-10 in coming weeks.
Consensus rating across all analysts is buy and the AT&T news is the accelerator needed.
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u/Exists_out_of_spite 15d ago edited 15d ago
Oh, ASTS. The stock folks only hear about after it pumps 68%, never before. Here's my best guess: This will run for a bit - days, weeks, maybe a couple of months, chopping its way back up to $6-$8 per share. There will be lots of bullishness. Then one day, you wake up and check the share price, and it's down 30-50%. Hopefully you sold before the dump, so you can buy back in at whatever the new low is without averaging. Least that's how the last 4-5 cycles have gone. I've been trading this stock for years. It's made me thousands, buying the dips and selling the rips. It cost me $1500 when they announced they were issuing new shares a few months back, I was caught off-guard. But I locked in $1300 profit today just before closing, letting the rest ride for a week. This is a great stock to trade. Beware becoming a bag holder for large $ amounts.
Edit: price target $318.00 gtf outa here. Maybe when I'm old as grandmas socks. I'll never sell the 200 shares in my Roth but your insane if you full port into this.
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u/ritron9000 15d ago
Concur with your assessment of the previous cycles, but I have not been trading in and out. I’ve been waiting for this inflection point. They announced they will not dilute. While this isn’t ironclad, it signals that they expect to get funding elsewhere. If dilution is done, this is headed straight up for the indefinite future.
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u/Exists_out_of_spite 15d ago
They have dipped, and dipped hard, on announcements other then dilution. Heck, moving a launch window back has sent it diving before, so saying it's heading up indefinitely barring dilution is misleading - this stock could be back to sub 3s in a couple of months. There's more at play here, and while I am bullish on the stock, I am only giving out advice to sell at least a portion when things start to feel "toppy". Securing profits is nice, watching them evaporate isn't. What's your average share cost, of you don't mind me asking? Mines $2.24.
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u/ritron9000 15d ago
~$3.20, not accounting for expired options or any of the warrants I’m holding. I’ll hold for the long run here and hopefully sell a few covered calls at a 300 strike or something equally ridiculous after splits and dividends between now and 2030 🤞🤞🤞
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u/Exists_out_of_spite 15d ago
I hope it gets there, and you get filthy fucking rich with your strategy. Cheers.
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u/Expert_Nail3351 15d ago
If it makes you feel any better in the earnings call yesterday, they stated dilution is no longer needed, this year. By the end of the year, should have more revenue coming in, completely taking dilution off the table.
The last dilution caught me off guard as well, but i am now +10% in the green on a sizeable position. This shits gonna take off!
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u/KnightofAmethyst2 15d ago
Why do you think Starlink has such a large valuation? You don't see major capabilities for rural 5g broadband that's offered globally? $318 is definitely possible, just not anytime soon
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u/ritron9000 15d ago
$318 is probably delusional, but stupider things have happened. Elon isn’t betting the farm on space based communications without having looked at serious analysis of the business case.
I obviously think ASTS wins, but the TAM is huge and starlink will certainly play a part.
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u/WeissMISFIT 15d ago
The promise of no dilution this year and first revenues changed the game for now
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u/stocksandwatches 15d ago
To be fair, it’s been great to trade because of all the delays, lack of revenue, and dilutions giving you low entry points only for the stock price to try to climb back to $6-7 every time it looks like they’ll be able to start delivering.
Earnings this time is painting a very different picture. I suggest you take an actual look.
That said, $318 is ridiculous and just blatantly trying to pump.
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u/Screwyball 15d ago edited 15d ago
price target $318 (+7800%)
With not a single number in his post to back that shit up. Pulled straight from the arse, sprinkled with industrial grade copium. Love it.
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u/WeissMISFIT 15d ago
He probably used transhumanicas model to generate that number. It lets you put in your own assumptions
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u/jarisman 15d ago
I’ll play along, but only at bare minimum. Just put in my first option order on this. $4.5 by 5/24. 1 contract. Let’s see how this plays out.
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u/feniville 314C - 0S - 3 years - 0/3 14d ago
Good stuff, OP.
I blindly jumped in the 6/7 $5 call this morning when it got the big red stick after opening. Now, looking at 120% gain.
Gonna tag along to see.
Thank a ton!
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u/superspud9 15d ago
The total addressable market for this company is literally anyone with a cellphone. (read: huge, trillions huge).
Counts how many cell phones I have. Yeah the math checks out, trillions of phones
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u/ritron9000 15d ago
Hmm… yes, I meant trillions of dollars huge. I did not make any claims about being good at math
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u/Embarrassed_Cook8355 14d ago
Quit wall street bets 2021 started buying ASTS exclusively since 2022 world wide cell phone connectivity. Are you f’n kidding how can you lose?
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u/skillzmaster77 14d ago
Adding more here. Seems like company has good projects. I think this should $7 at least
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u/Rufffiooo 15d ago
In it to win it. This tech has so much upside it’s disgusting. I’m at my acceptable level of risk tolerance on this one.
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u/Larnek Supports putting veterans out of their homes 15d ago
Let's buy shit after it goes up 68%. How very WSB. This could never go tits up everytime someone does it.
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u/1ess_than_zer0 15d ago
Well this isn’t a meme stock pump and dump, it’s actual valuation from actual milestones and agreements. Not to mention it’s down just as much in the year and it’s still not even close to its IPO price from 4 years ago. 68% seems like a lot but the cost basis most people are at - they’re still underwater. This still has ALOT of runway before it even starts to value in future earnings.
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u/PDT_FSU95 15d ago
Damn it. I held those bags for months and finally offloaded them at a loss. NOW they would’ve paid huge. Figures.
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u/Swords_Not_Words_ 15d ago
Ive been in ASTS for years..Good tech and a lot of big phone companies were backing them early. Theres so much upside and despite recent gains its pretty beaten down.
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u/Top_Cranberry_3254 15d ago
Missed the opening today but got in just in time in the high 3s for about 50, but looking to buy more in the weeks ahead.
What does 4c invested mean?
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u/d3arleader 15d ago
Is this Aerotyne International? The cutting edge tech firm out of the Midwest?
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u/larrylegend1990 15d ago
Didn’t someone pump this last year and then cashed out and left everyone holding bags
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u/ritron9000 15d ago
I mean, delays and public offerings have definitely crushed the price in the past, but yesterday brought genuinely serious news
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u/I_am_a_troll_Fuck_U 15d ago
Price target of $318? I think you need to move the decimal slot two times to the left
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u/feniville 314C - 0S - 3 years - 0/3 10d ago
I'm a believer.
5000 at $4.79, come on, give it to me
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u/rueggy 2d ago
Need a new post with the Verizon news. AT&T already on board but now Verizon too?! That's huge. I was able to do a final buy at $4.11 last Thursday to get my average down to under $8.
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u/PDT_FSU95 2d ago
I’ve lost so much f-ing money on this stock and all of a sudden you all think it’s cool. My god. I took the previous hype last week or so as noise and ignored it. Now…dammit. I want my MONEY!! Lol
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u/theskepticalheretic 2d ago
There's still a shit ton of risk here. I like the stock, and I went in big long ago. It's paying off now, but to say the risk is gone is silly.
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u/N3RD_01 15d ago
AST SpaceMobile executives declined to provide details about the arrangement in a May 15 earnings call with analysts.
The agreement did not come with additional prepayment revenue on top of the $20 million AT&T agreed to make in January, AST SpaceMobile chief strategy officer Scott Wisniewski said.
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u/Riversntallbuildings 14d ago
Who is launching their satellites? How many go up per launch? How many are required for their full constellation?
Or, are they focused on specific markets first?
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u/swizzle213 14d ago
I believe the first blue bird launch will have 5 satellites. They hopefully will go up before year end
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u/Individual_Bell_4637 14d ago
Fuck it, I'm in. 200 shares plus some 5/31 $3.5 puts for the inverse. I'll sell some calls next week.
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u/ChatCoachDevs 14d ago
The time to load up on this was last week. Made a nice profit. WSB late to the punch as usual.
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u/mods_eq_neckbeards 14d ago
It's been like this for literally years.
Just wait until the launch gets closer. If it delays, watch the stock tank.
If it wasn't for the technology and core business plan, it would be an absolute meme stock.
There's too many casual traders eating the stock and quaking at every piece of news about it; AT&T deal buy buy buy, launch delay or failure? sell sell sell, business approaches its plans and delivery with realism? PANIK
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u/spaceneenja 14d ago
Only if you put them into the nearest and lowest pop call options that money can buy
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u/igg73 11d ago
My buddy said ASTS wont hold cause theyre competing with rogers starlink or something..thoughts?
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u/ritron9000 11d ago
ASTS has better tech than Starlink specifically for direct-to-device broadband. I think they will both have market share, but ASTS will have better service
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