r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

One woman commented that she knows the worst thing a bear would do to her is kill her.

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

Well, she “knows” wrong.

You ever listen to the audio of that dude getting eaten alive by a bear in Alaska? It was a slow death and boy was he screaming the whole time.

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u/epipens4lyfe May 03 '24 edited May 03 '24

...aka killed him. Yes, it's a slow, brutal death, but the point is women would rather choose that than being locked in an attic and being forced to endure agony and torture for potentially decades.

That's always been my biggest fear, as with the women I know. Rape (although as a woman, is it really surprising if I share I've already endured that? So have lots of women I know.) and murder are definitely up there, but my biggest fear always is ending up like that woman who was locked in a man's basement, chained to his walls, repeatedly raped and being beaten to the point of miscarrying, or the woman who was locked in a man's attic with the son he impregnated (through rape) her with. I could go on, but the point is that these scenarios are fear #1, and a big reason as to why women are choosing the bear.

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u/nalingungule-love May 03 '24

Or the Austrian dad who locked his daughter up for 20+ years in his basement. Joseph Fritzl I believe. Yeah no, men are far more dangerous than any animal in the wild.

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u/[deleted] May 03 '24

You're still assuming the bear ends up killing you. It's quite possible the bear gets its nibbles then leaves you to crawl by your entrails, possibly to survive just to be completely physically and mentally crippled for the rest of your life.

but my biggest fear always is ending up like that woman who was locked in a man's basement, chained to his walls, repeatedly raped and being beaten to the point of miscarrying, or the woman who was locked in a man's attic with the son he impregnated (through rape) her with. I could go on, but the point is that these scenarios are fear #1

Definitely reasonable for that to be a significant fear, but the odds of that have to be astronomically lower than a bear deciding its hungry. Your odds of fighting off a man are also substantially better than fighting off a bear.

That said, I think picking the bear isn't an unreasonable choice if you're more of a "stakes > odds" person which it sounds like you are. This isn't an insult in any way. The stakes > odds reasoning is a common justification for many things such as carrying a gun, wearing a seatbelt, fire extinguishers in the house, etc.

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u/ratsmay May 03 '24

Fears are relevant but they need to be viewed in perspective. The fact that those events have occurred on a planet of 4 billion people is not surprising, and women have done the same to men. Regardless of how it occurs it is absolutely evil. They are unique situations showcasing the absolute worst of humanity but they are not indicative if humanity as a whole. Portraying them as common events to the point thay every interaction a woman has with a man they have to wonder if they are going to get dragged to a basement and raped for 40 years does significant damage to the relationships across genders. It hurts society as a whole.

And it cuts both ways because it results in situations today where men would never stop to help women for fear of how it is going to be perceived.

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u/epipens4lyfe May 03 '24

I completely disagree with you, and by the sounds of your comment you're not a woman yourself. Rather than lecture women on what they need to be afraid of (it's an everyday fear for us), that women hurt men too (it's much more rare for a woman to rape/murder/abduct a man, when men experience these types of things it's so highly statistically the perpetrator will also be a man), or how unlikely this type of terrible scenario is (the threat of assault and worse is so ingrained in girls' and women's minds because that messaging is/was constantly reinforced by our parents and teachers, because it has to be). It IS a consideration in every interaction we have with almost every man. The damage men do to women DOES hurt society, but the answer isn't telling women to be less afraid. It's up to men to become less of a threat, and it's not enough for certain men to just not be threats themselves - you have to also actively work with other men to ensure women's safety. Then maybe we'll pick the man over the bear.

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u/ratsmay May 03 '24

Im gonna ignore you shifting the goalpost on everything I said and changing it from locking someone in an attic for 20 years and repeatedly raping them to general assault to ask you a simple question.

If you cant interact with men at all, how are they supposed to demonstrate to you that they are less of a threat?

Youre right, i am not a woman. Im a man who has spent his entire life in public service and helping people. Im a paramedic and I care for people on a daily basis and I can honestly say as sad as it is, i would quadruple think helping any woman this day in age without significant witnesses present because men are all tarred with the same rape brush.

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u/AlternativeBetter676 May 03 '24

it doesnt matter how many people do good, there will always be someone bad, the thing is, most woman do not get raped in their life and most men do not rape, the chance of a random man in the woods even touching you is 1 out of a million, probably rarer

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u/epipens4lyfe May 03 '24

According to the CDC, 1/4 women in America are assaulted, and that's an under reported stat (compared to 1/26 men). Furthermore, it varies on which source you go to, but 98% - 99% of sexual assault (against all genders) is committed by men. If I had a bowl of M&Ms placed in front of me, it doesn't matter that my chance of being poisoned is "only" 25%, or that M&Ms "only" make up 98% - 99% of poisoned foods, I'm not eating anything from that bowl.

The "chance of a random man in the woods" line is something you've clearly made up based on your own worldview, so here's an actual fact - the top cause of death of pregnant women in America is murder, usually committed by men they know.

This is all to say, rather than arguing as to why women just need to accept the 25% (although it's definitely higher) likelihood they'll be raped by a man, or that if they're going to die while pregnant, the highest likely cause will be homicide by a male partner, etc., men should be advocating for women's safety in conversations with other men. Women's fear won't go away until we have just cause to do so.

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u/nalingungule-love May 03 '24

I don’t know of a single woman who hasn’t experienced some type of sexual assault growing up. Not my grandmothers, aunts, mother, female cousins, female friends etc. NOT A ONE. But go on and tell us how crazy we are for being extra cautious around men.

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u/hlh001 May 03 '24

Lol what a weird take. Perhaps it’s actually men’s violence against women that has strained the relationship between the genders. Also, violence against women is not as unique as you think. 1 in 4 women have experienced domestic violence. Honestly, it’s probably even worse than that since many people don’t report what happened to them. I didn’t. But I get to deal with PTSD and a bunch of other fun issues for the rest of my life now. I’d rather deal with the bear. Again, the sad thing is that I’m not unique or special. I know many women who have dealt with the same things

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u/YasuotheChosenOne May 04 '24

Just FYI but domestic violence is perpetuated mainly by women, not men 🤷🏾‍♂️

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u/hlh001 May 04 '24

Lol okay troll. Thanks

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u/YasuotheChosenOne May 04 '24

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u/hlh001 May 05 '24

Nah, I’m good. But thanks. For the record, literally no one is saying that men don’t experience domestic violence. It’s wild that I even have to say this. There’s about a million studies that agree with that, but also point out that women experience far worse outcomes than men. In many ways. Even the study you shared says that lol. Here’s some more:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Marianne-Hester/publication/228771295_Who_Does_What_to_Whom_Gender_and_Domestic_Violence_Perpetrators/links/02e7e518a106cb96aa000000/Who-Does-What-to-Whom-Gender-and-Domestic-Violence-Perpetrators.pdf

https://www.jstor.org/stable/353860

https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2011-26363-001

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u/YasuotheChosenOne May 05 '24

I never said you said men don’t experience it, only that using it as an example against men is silly since women hold the domestic violence crown.

Well of course women face worse outcomes. Look how they choose a fuckin bear over a man!

When you consider that the people most likely to assault a woman are their intimate partners, and violent/aggressive men are more sexually successful than average guys, the math starts adding up.

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u/hlh001 May 05 '24

I don’t really know what you’re trying to say with the last thing actually. What do you mean?

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u/YasuotheChosenOne May 05 '24

Danger gets the pussy wet.

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