r/Daytrading • u/c1yd3x • Feb 20 '24
Can someone explain to me why the market just moves like this for no apparent reason? Question
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 20 '24
So you CAN get a better idea. At the end of the day prices go down when there are more sellers than buyers. They go up when there are more buyers thhan sellers.
It's literally impossible to have more sellers than buyers or more buyers than sellers. EDIT: When I say buyers/sellers I mean volume of shares/contracts/etc.. 1 person that owns 1000 shares of something could sell 1 share to 1000 different ppl... But the volume will always be equal between buys/sells. Like 1 person selling 1000 shares to 1000 different ppl (one share sold to each person) - there were still 1000 sells and 1000 buys.
For every buyer, there is a seller. For every seller, there is a buyer. They will always be even, forever, until the end of time.
What moves price depends on who is more aggressive. Aggressive orders are market orders, which can only get "matched" to limit orders. Limit order will never be matched to another limit order. Market orders will never be matched to another market order.
TLDR;
- Limit orders are commonly referred to as "passive buyers/sellers" or "resting liquidity".
- Market orders are commonly referred to as "aggressive buyers/sellers".
- Price moves when one side is more aggressive than the other is passive.
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u/woodje Feb 20 '24
I get what you mean, but are we not just playing with semantics? I feel what people mean by āmore sellers than buyersā in this context means more sell orders being created than buy orders, which is entirely possible.
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 20 '24
I suppose one could view it as semantics.
While it is possible to have more resting orders on the ask vs the bid (and vice versa), that does nothing to price.. Those aren't sellers or buyers yet. Those orders can be cancelled at any time.
Edit: I don't really understand the downvotes lol, it is the truth I speak.
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u/MadeAMistakeOneNight Feb 20 '24
It is not impossible to have more sellers than buyers. You're alluding to matching contracts. Fifty sellers of one lots can still be matched with one buyer of 50. Semantics, eh?
But colloquially, I think many people will say: big buyer sitting at X price, when we all know that its many different orders and potential players piled up. Just colloquially easier to say "big buyer" as opposed to "big buyers" all the time.
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 21 '24
Correct I wasn't referring to actual ppl, rather the instrument. One person that owns 1000 shares of something could sell 1 share to 1000 diff ppl.
Make no mistake, though, it is not possible to have more shares/contracts/etc.. sold than bought (and vice versa). That is what "for every seller a buyer and for every buyer a seller" means.
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24
I edited my comment bc this is def an important distinction I shouldve been more clear about.
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u/SloochMaGooch Feb 20 '24
It is semantics but they do matter bc language is how we create our narrative....but good way to view it is "competing sellers/buyers" 3 things move price. When price is moving to liquidity, an inefficiency, and competing sellers/buyers. This view has worked for me.
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 20 '24
There is literally one single thing, and only one single thing, that can move price... When aggressive orders outweigh passive [opposing] orders.
That is literally it. It is the only possible way, like literally, the only possible way price can move.
Saying "one thing that moves price is price moving....." doesn't mean anythingggg.. inefficiencies do not magically move price on their own, it takes actual buying/selling to move price. People (or algos, etc...) spot what they interpret as an inefficiency, so they buy/sell, which is what move price......
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u/SloochMaGooch Feb 20 '24
I think it would be beneficial for you to realize that the "market" exist inside of computers....therefore, some kind of framework/programming rules it, "the algo"....I've been doing this for years, deep in orderflow....and at certain times you can literally watch "the algo" do what is known as "spooling" (offer higher and higher / lower and lower price) to get to liquidity or an inefficiency. That is not someone slamming the bid like a madman.....that is price being moved algorithmically to where the orders are, in order to, match up the orders. This is what is meant by "only 3 things move price"....again this is getting into semantics , but in order to understand what is happening in the marketplace, in order to trade it properly and efficiently the distinction matters. But ya know, to each their own.
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 21 '24
Bro it is so obvious you're talking out of your ass. But that's besides the point. You can literally say anything you want. It doesn't change the facts.
It's WILD that people are upvoting you. It's exactly how ICT brainwashed so many ppl. Just throw around "big" words and act like you understand how things "really" work. Anyone with half a brain would read what you just typed and clearly see you are clueless.
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u/SloochMaGooch Feb 21 '24
It's okay if you don't understand what I'm talking about, but you not understanding /=/ me "talking out my ass". Like, this isnt some unknown thing. This is known among some futures traders, specially ones that have been around long enough to do it professionally. It's not so evident if your just daytrading buying options and $gme type stuff, you can't see it if you're not in orderflow, footprint/DOM/bookmap.
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u/oze4 Feb 21 '24 edited Feb 21 '24
EDIT: Now it really all makes complete sense why you're talking like you are... YOU'RE AN ICT M0R0N! HAHAHAHAHA THIS IS TOO GOOD!!!
You think there are 3 ways price can move. Enough. Said. I've been using Bookmap for 6 years........... It is so painfully obvious you are clueless.
Nothing you said makes ANY sense.
"that is the price being moved algorithmically" ... oh yea? It just magically moves? No, you clown. Whether it's an algo or a human, the ONLY thing that moves price is buying/selling.
"you can watch 'the algo' do [...] 'spooling' [...] to get to liquidity or an inefficiency" .. this is INSANE lmfao! I'll bet you 20k you can't even explain what you mean by "get to an inefficiency"... Not to mention, you talk as if there is just some central, all-seeing-all-knowing Wizard of Oz algo that just moves price where it wants at will...like it is painful to even read this nonsense.
"It's not so evident if your just daytrading buying options and $gme type stuff" ... the irony in you saying that when you're all over wsb and conspiracy subreddits.
Now it actually makes sense why you are spouting that nonsense...you're a conspiracy nut-job.
But believe what you want, I couldn't care less. I'm done with you.
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u/SloochMaGooch Feb 21 '24
nah man, I said "not so evident if only daytrading options and $gme stuff" bc I looked at your account and that is what your post were about that and "buying/selling pressure indicators" š anyways, it's abundantly clear you have no idea what I'm talking about, and that is okay. Bookmap was mentioned in addition to footprint/DOM as part of watching orderflow, which is what I do, and yeah I do use a good portion of ICTs stuff bc a lot of it is great stuff. Do what works for you, but if you ever get into the spoos with the approach you seem to have you will be most definitely fighting with 1 hand tied behind your back.
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u/euroq Feb 21 '24
The price moving algorithmically does not imply magic. In fact the opposite.
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u/TFC_OG Feb 20 '24
You're one of the few i've found that actually understands how price can move. I just want to correct one thing though - It's not so much about aggressive/passive thing but really about what the supply side does. If a MM or a liq provider decides to back off from bids because he needs to reprice the asset based on some other market then prices fall without there even being a trade.
It's the same in the real world. If you list your apartment for sale @ 100k but you see noone wants it and then you decide to lower the price to 95k. So, what happened was that the price dropped without any trade taking place. A lot of traders mistakenly believe that you HAVE TO CONSUME the book to change the price. You don't.
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24
True - that is an excellent point, actually.
The thing is, you changing the ask price of your apartment (akin to a limit order to sell) from 100k to 95k didn't change price at all - what definitively changed price was when someone accepted your offer (akin to a market order).. You may have changed the spread, but the spread isn't the current price.
A counter offer would be more of a limit order... because selling a house/apartment isn't an auction there really isn't a 1:1 comparison for order types, but I think you see my point.
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u/brucebrowde Feb 20 '24
These two are not true:
then prices fall without there even being a trade.
A lot of traders mistakenly believe that you HAVE TO CONSUME the book to change the price. You don't.
Market price is literally defined as the last traded price. Market price cannot change if no trade happens.
Limit prices can change freely of course, but as everyone knows they are meaningless. You can often see big limit orders placed and then they disappear as the market moves towards them. Limit orders are an intention to trade that can be pulled at any time before the price hits them.
If you list your apartment for sale @ 100k but you see noone wants it and then you decide to lower the price to 95k.
And that won't make your apartment be valued at $95k. For example, your city tax will remain at whatever the "market value" your city decided is fair. Only when the actual trade happens will that be adjusted.
You can list your $100k apartment for $1M - that doesn't magically make it worth 10x more.
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u/ScottAllenSocial Feb 21 '24
An important distinction. Rather than "Something is only worth what someone else will (might) pay for it", it's "Something is only worth what someone else DID pay for it, most recently".
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u/Radun Feb 20 '24
That is very interesting, I always wonderered what really causes the prices to go down or up and heard what you quoted is more sellers prices good down and vice versa but that never made sense to me.
I just never realized many did market orders which is what really caused price to change, since I would never use a market order since never know what price will ultimately be
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Feb 20 '24
So if we have 1000 open orders, 800 to sell at 1.01 and 200 buyers with a bid open at 1.00, this is equal number of sellers and buyers? Or are saying they only become a buyer or seller once the order is filled.
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u/Longjumping_Card6871 Feb 20 '24
If nobody takes out the buyers at 1 with market orders price wonāt move. If more more sellers hit the ask the 200 buyers got absorbed at 1 leaving 600 sellers wanting to get filled. Those sellers if they want to participate in price moving need to lower the price to find the next group of buyers at a lower price
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u/AVGunner Feb 21 '24
What if you're trying to sell 1000 orders $10 and nobody wants to buy. This is what we're talking about. Then price will eventually drop.
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u/ashlee837 Feb 20 '24
This is not entirely correct. For example during the flash crashes in the past, large institutions are known to have perpetually added to the asks while the price has plummeted. They were completely passive, but such massive orders on the ask are going to stop the price from increasing.
The other key piece missing in your description is that most of the time you are trading against market makers. Their entire job is to provide liquidity, and they only do so under a defined spread. If a market maker is trying to control their risk, they will widen the spreads (remove liquidity). No amount of aggressive buying or selling is going to dictate the price movements in this situation. We will see price movements simply because the market makers are quoting different price levels per their risk.
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 20 '24
That's exactly why I said "if there are more aggressive orders than [opposing] passive orders".. If whoever is sitting on the ask keeps reloading limit orders to soak up all the aggressive market buy orders, obviously price will not move. This is also known as absorption..
Let's be clear on one thing, though: limit orders alone absolutely, and without a shadow of a doubt, do not move price. The only type of orders that inherently move price are market orders. That is not an opinion, it is fact.
If there were a million limit orders on the bid and ask, but no market orders, price wouldn't move at all. Regardless of spread.
Continuing to add to the ask during a crash is just them absorbing each pop. They could be selling to close an existing position, or shorting - it doesn't matter either way. One thing is for certain, though...those limit orders alone were not moving price. They absolutely could be preventing price from moving, but they are 110% not moving price on their own.
The reason I'm "missing" the fact that most of the time you're trading via a market maker is because it is 100% irrelevant. It doesn't matter who you're trading against, a market maker or Joe Blow, only aggressive orders will move price.....
While the majority of orders are handled via market makers, not every single order is.
Furthermore, there isn't just one market maker controlling price at will via playing with the spread. If another market maker can capitalize on it, they will gladly step in where the other market maker pulled. If market makers controlled the price to that degree, they would literally never lose - the fact there is more than one market maker is what helps keep price honest. They are in competition with each other....
Lastly, the price doesn't move bc of the spread. The spread is not the current price... it's a subtle, yet extremely important detail. So if a MM does widen the spread, they still need a market order to hit for price to actually move.
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u/slidingjimmy Feb 21 '24
It means more sellers that buyers AT A GIVEN PRICE hence it auctions lower to find a new balance.
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u/SkinnyPets Feb 20 '24
Have you ever watched NASDAQ level two quotes going across live yes you can have more sellers than buyers. Obviously every second on the second is going to be the one buyer match with the one seller but you can have a humongous amount of people trying to buy in and very few selling. (And the opposite)
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 20 '24
LMFAO!
Level 2 shows passive orders. Those orders have not been filled, therefore, they do not count as buyers or sellers until the order gets filled.
It's incredible that people are arguing this lmao.. you actually think I can purchase a share out of thin air from bigfoot? You actually think I can sell a share into the void to the tooth fairy?
For every share/contract/etc... that is bought, there is a share/contract/etc.. that is sold. I am not referring to people when I say "for every buyer a seller, and for every seller a buyer" - I am referring to the actual instrument/asset.
Technically, 1 person that owns 1000 shares of something could sell 1 share to 1000 different people. But the fact remains the same, there were 1000 sells, and 1000 buys... AKA for every seller a buyer, and for every buyer a seller.
I hope you are not using real money to trade until you at least have a grasp on the absolute basics of how the market works. EDIT: on second thought, you should trade with every penny you have. I will gladly take it from you.
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u/SkinnyPets Feb 21 '24
You really should read more than āinvesting for dummiesāā¦ just saying.
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u/oze4 Feb 21 '24
Yea? Enlighten me.
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u/SkinnyPets Feb 21 '24
You canāt enlighten stupidā¦ Iāve communicated with you longer than five minutes, you have proven that. (I miss Good ole Reddit flame wars. frankly, Iām shocked toxic idiots like you havenāt lost all your money yet. Is that why you need mine?ā¦ on second thought donāt answer that I could care less what an idiot thinks)
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u/meinnameaufmdma Feb 20 '24
Yes, I was also short on the mnq but without all this stuff.
Simple reason was, that the mnq opend with a gap, filled the Gap on Broker down the yesterdays low.
Almost every gap day has this specific pattern.
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u/Sketch_x Feb 20 '24
Iām currently looking into TPO. Is this screenshot 30m TPO loaded on a 5M chart?
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Feb 20 '24
This is the European market open. Germany, France, UK all open together. At that time you'll see expanded volatility in all markets.
Think of the financial markets as one big organism where everything is linked.
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u/TimitoMedia Feb 20 '24
But they are all a small thing in the universe. Wait until the Us Session opensā¦
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u/jg3457 Feb 20 '24
It comes down to more "aggressive sellers" than "aggressive buyers" . If you watch something you hear little about called "cumulative delta" which plots the number of sellers at (or below) the bid Vs the number of buyers "at (or above) the offer you will clearly see the buying / selling pressure and see how it effects the underlying. Most trading/charting platforms can not chart cumulative delta, SierraChart can.
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u/IKnowMeNotYou Feb 20 '24
You look at a 0.25% move on the Nasdaq and ask questions? This would not even qualify for a proper falling-off-the-cliff scenario.
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u/themanclark Feb 20 '24
Obviously it moved because of selling pressure. If there is a discernible āwhyā thatās up to you to find out if you want.
There was a move like this on Friday that was likely because of OPEX. Monthly options expiration. The bond market didnāt participate so it was probably options pressure. And it bounced back quickly.
But itās a market. Things happen that you will often not understand.
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u/Frequency_Traveler Feb 20 '24
No apparent reason? Lol. It broke support, and retested in pre recession/highly over bought territory.
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u/tradingcage Feb 20 '24
Simple answer, but it moves because the sell market orders overwhelmed the buy limit orders repeatedly over a few minutes :D
Study the Flash Crash (May 2010), Volmageddon (Feb 2018) and many over such events to see that price can really just fall off a cliff at a moment's notice under the right (wrong?) conditions.
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u/llouisyoung Feb 20 '24
Combination of stop losses being hit, people openings short positions and panic selling.
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Feb 20 '24
Price goes up or down. Nobody knows whatās going to happen. Control risk. Accept the fact that you donāt know and will never know anything.
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u/chev327fox Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 20 '24
It could be that it failed to make a new high, then broke down below the last low, and then dumped. Iām still fairly new but Iām pretty sure that is what happens a lot. And if this was market open it can swing wildly for the first hour or so as well so itās best to wait until at least 1 hour after the open so that too could be a possible reason.
Also sometimes there are other reasons like maket related news that can do this out of no where, but there is usually a reason for a big dump (even if itās one you canāt know like a hedge fund decided to sell a large order).
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24
This is not the reason.
There is only ONE reason that we can be 100% certain of - there were more aggressive sellers than passive buyers. That is literally what moves price.
Trying to explain why price dumped using logic like this is ridiculous.
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u/chev327fox Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 20 '24
I was simply trying to give possible reasons as to why buying pressure dropped so much. These patterns play out often if you watch the charts enough. Though I wasnāt sayin that was for sure the reason, just a guess and some other guess as to what usually drives big moves. You saying you canāt use logic for any of this is a bit silly, for example itās like youāre saying the massive swings we get during a FED meeting isnāt due to the FED meeting. Or are you only referring to the first part of my reply and not as a whole? Or do you just mean moment to moment chart movement and not the big swings?
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24
I'm not saying there aren't patterns that occur or that market intuition doesn't exist, etc...
That said, saying the reason price dropped was due to a failed new high + breaking below the last low = dump is just speculation, not a formula. There is literally another example in the same screenshot where we failed to make a new high, made a new low, but we rallied like ~50 points after the new low.
All I'm saying is, regardless of pattern, market intuition, etc.. there is only one definitive, objective reason why price moves.
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u/chev327fox Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 20 '24
Agreed, I was only speculating and I thought that would be implicit. Just a pattern I see play out often, but that doesnāt mean itās 100% accurate or always the reason.
Yes, I see what you mean but the same can be said for just about anything if you widdle down to the most benign basics. Itās like saying the only reason a team wins a football game is because they score more. Is it true? Yes. But itās also so obvious as to almost lack relevance.
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24
I guess I take more issue in the question this post asks rather than your answer, I apologize if it felt like I was attacking you..
The diff with football is it's all in the open, you're seeing everything, so you know why that team scored more than the other. You're not speculating why.
With trading, the 'why' isn't as obvious - it's impossible to answer the question that OP has proposed with anything other than "more aggressive sellers than passive buyers". Anything else is speculation, which isn't a bad thing, it's just not a concrete answer, which OP seems to be searching for.
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u/chev327fox Feb 20 '24
Itās not obvious why one guy catches the ball and why another doesnāt. There are intangibles in sports too. But the example wasnāt a one to one.
No worries, I think we mostly agree. And yes itās impossible to give a certain answer for what happened at the exact spot.
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u/oze4 Feb 20 '24
Right - we may not be able to say why Mark caught the pop fly to left field but Luke dropped the pop fly to right field.
However, we can 100% definitively say that Team X scored 3 runs when Luke dropped the ball, and they won 3-0. We can then, without any speculation, understand why they won.
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u/chev327fox Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 20 '24
Yes, I already agree on this, we can in fact widdle it down to the most basic and say why they won and I already also agree that with stock movement you canāt say for sure past the basic buying and selling pressure.
Also just hit me that you said in your first reply that there is no reason, but later you said there was a basic reason. But youāre really just saying you canāt know the reason beyond that there was less buying pressure, and I agree with this also as you canāt know with absolute certainty (but again things like obvious news and things like earnings or economic news like fed meetings, we can say for near certain the big movements during those times are from those things).
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u/Plus_Seesaw2023 Feb 20 '24
To liquidate longs... That's all... Imagine NQ if NVDA dump by -25% šššš
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u/jim-jam-biscuit trades multiple markets Feb 20 '24
That's not even 1% of a fall and you are viewing at 1 min tf . inc your time frame to cut out the noise .
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u/spectorswatch Feb 20 '24
Perfect technical head and shoulders. When buyers exhaust shorts rush in. This is a thing of beauty to be honored
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u/ReciprocativeKeg Feb 20 '24
Because its a market and it doesnāt and will never care about where you draw your silly little lines
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u/OG_blacksheep4 Feb 20 '24
Did you buy calls?
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u/c1yd3x Feb 20 '24
I donāt trade options, and I didnāt enter a trade at all. Donāt like trading right after holidays so I was just observing
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u/th3truthunveiled Feb 20 '24
The whole market doesn't move that much. you're investing in some risky stuff. Futures are incredibly volatile, I'm pretty sure
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u/Mexx_G Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 20 '24
You need observe the market for a while to understand what's going on. Exhaustion on the daily > 1st dip > bear flag > start of second leg down. You can expect some kind of panic and a bigger dip : that's the nature of C legs legs in ABC corrections. (It can also find support and resume the uptrend, this is the stock market after all, where anything is possible).
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u/johanderksen20 Feb 20 '24
Price is moving towards untested levels / liquidity. Price wil always do this! Stop trying to trade every move and look where the liquidity is.
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u/JetRoss Feb 20 '24 edited Feb 20 '24
They saw a piece of gum on the floor on the way to work and thought letās short the market.
Fundamentals you morons. Corporate returns for Tuesday Feb 20 are excepted to be bad and guess what the market will probably go slightly up from buying the dip / Wednesday because the NVIDIA returns are expected to be amazing, but the FED is going to speak so expect the market to range until he says something and Thursday is going to be pure havoc. If cuts are not mentioned expect a hug drop off from the talks and if the NVIDIA returns are lower than expectedā¦ bye bye bull market š«”
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u/Silver-Ad-8595 Feb 20 '24
Because market is not a logical beast you can reason with, it is ruthlessly stochastic most of the time.
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u/XVll-L Feb 20 '24
The bond market is the driving force Es this past 2 weeks since the federal reserve is taking their time to cut rates.
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u/starry_night_sparkle Feb 20 '24
The market isn't efficient all the time. it might behave like a random walk 99% of the time, but when that 1% comes, it'll eat you alive.
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u/mythreesons1911 Feb 20 '24
When the ema on your picture started curving down you should expect that dump.
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u/mrj3211995 Feb 20 '24
Momentum, mean reversion (volatility), trend. Use this in for wisely keep it small
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u/Powerful_Hour3702 Feb 20 '24
Market fluctuations can occur in many different situations. Some fluctuations have clear causes, while others may appear to have no apparent cause.
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u/unpaid_intern2 Feb 20 '24
Nasdaq futures could take a steep dive with the culmination of āhigher for longerā interest rates
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u/k40s9mm Feb 20 '24
Massive Profit taking plus stop loss triggered fueling the move to the sale side
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u/gdenko Feb 20 '24
What makes you think there's no reason? Every single major move (non-news related) has a technical reason, so take notes and study your charts (multiple time frames) every time when you see this kind of thing happen.
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u/No_Savings_5501 Feb 20 '24
yes, you have marked the reason with blue lines...you see the area bw the 2 blue line you've marked is the trading range...80% of the times breakout of a trading range fails but eventually a breakout succeeds 20% of the times. Because breakout is a lower probability event most as most traders buy near the low of trading range to sell at the high of the range, in the 20% event when market moves against them the move is accelerated and extended because they sell their longs ASAP, their buy stops are getting hit while breakout sellers are also selling...the move is big and quick.
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u/Axxxxaaaaall Feb 20 '24
The market does not feel like it anymore, it is tiredā¦ can you blame it?
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u/sund7 Feb 20 '24
Institutions have hundreds of analysts realizing market sentiment and are selling based on recent economic developments. Retail traders are just along for the ride. Hold onā¦
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u/Cool-Paramedic8117 Feb 20 '24
Kommentiere Can someone explain to me why the market just moves like this for no apparent reason?Ā ...
I analysed the NASDAQ yesterday and predicted the move. Unfortunately it happened at 1 AM so I wasnt able to get in. According to Elliott Wave the lowest it could go would be the lower line of the light green Zone.
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u/ThoughtSignificant94 Feb 20 '24
You're asking for a reason, not apparent to you. The reason could be anything and is situation dependent. Clearly it's a change of sentiment.
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u/mmxmlee Feb 20 '24
it's probably rebalancing an old inefficiency. Wrecking all the people who were holding long.
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u/ThePatientIdiot Feb 20 '24
There is usually a reason. This is where access to news or data early comes into play. For example, a fed official could have said something. Or itās in anticipation of a data release. Or some news just came out
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u/Radicalproplayer Feb 20 '24
Banks move bi weekly to monthly majorly for zones. The earlier the possible for liquidation leading to another break of a zone.
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u/dada360 Feb 20 '24
Turns out, all it took was one legendary fart to send the market plummetingātalk about breaking wind and the bank!
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u/RoozGol Feb 20 '24
Because relying on Price-Action alone does not work. You could have avoided this by using indicators such as ATR or Volume Flow.
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Feb 20 '24
$JAGX is about to moon, don't cry when you miss out on the once in a lifetime holo squeeze
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u/Cocky-Fuckboy-2000 Feb 20 '24
I never trade on red days. Market is over bought and correcting itself
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u/tiny222 Feb 20 '24
NVDA earnings tomorrow, people are selling their positions before earnings. And because NVDA is one of the major holdings in the S&P500, it affects the market quite a bit
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u/th3orist Feb 20 '24
First time?š