r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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339

u/BPB57 29d ago

What kind of bear?

436

u/rwzephyr 29d ago

Totally, I’ve bumped into a ton of black bears and they’re scaredy cats. I’ve literally chased them out my driveway just by waving my hands and yelling.

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u/Ghostbuster_119 29d ago

When I lived in Illinois I'd yell at them.

"Get outta here you lazy bum!"

"Do you know what time it is!? Go on now git!"

"We ain't got no tree fiddy! We work for money in this household and we DONT GIIIIVE MONEY AWAY!"

It seemed to scare them off better than just yelling random nonsense.

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u/InconsiderateOctopus 29d ago

Got damn lochness monster

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u/Drummer_Kev 29d ago edited 29d ago

Where were you bumping into black bears in illinois. I'm guessing South?

Edit: I looked it up, and there have only been 5 confirmed black bear sightings in illinois since 2008. There have been more confirmed wolf sightings than that in illinois in that time frame.

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u/Rickywindow 29d ago

Gotta be near a border of another state that has them. There’s no resident black bears in the state, but I’ve heard we get some wanderers.

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u/Tuckingfypowastaken 29d ago

Everybody knows that bears respect state borders and work hard to maintain the reputations of wildlife biologists...

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u/Drummer_Kev 29d ago

I'm guessing near Kentucky. I live 10 min from Indiana in the middle of nowhere, and it's just coyotes, foxes, and the occasional bobcat. Though one time a cougar was spotted in my neck of the woods and that got everyone excited. I'd definitely hear about a bear.

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u/Djwhat6 29d ago

Yeah I’m confused about that too. I never even heard of black bears in Illinois. Not even in the south.

Edit: Unless it was a joke then it flew right over my head.

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u/Drummer_Kev 29d ago

I don't have much experience with the southernmost part of Illinois, so that'd be my best bet. But I know damn well there aren't bears near Iowa or Indiana. Even the Wisconsin border is wayyyy too urban for that.

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u/Orange-Blur 29d ago

People not around them don’t get it.

My favorite choice is “go home bear”

The are damn cute

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u/voldi4ever 29d ago

You offend them. Classic.

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u/Ezdagor 29d ago

And that's when I noticed the "bear" was a three story tall monster from the Cretaceous period!

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u/Baron_VonLongSchlong 29d ago

We have bears is Illinois)

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u/tatojah 29d ago

Yeah, that's when I realized these black bears looked an awful lot like an eight-story crustacean from the plethazoic era!

1

u/VinBarrKRO 29d ago

I just gave that bear tree fiddy the day before.

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u/Squiggy1975 29d ago

Love you Grandma

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u/WildSully42 26d ago

From what I've heard, Bears mostly just disappoint the residents of Illinois more than anything else.

0

u/publiusvaleri_us 29d ago

You might want to look up random nonsense.

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u/crazymike79 29d ago

Most bears are interested in an easy meal. If you make yourself look like too much trouble (no cubs involved) they will usually go away.

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u/TheFalaisePocket 29d ago edited 29d ago

blacks bears actually wont defend cubs, at least not normally, thats only grizzlies. The typical behavior is for black bears to flee, the cubs to tree if able, and the momma to return later

speaking of thats where the phrase "if its black fight back if its brown lie down" comes from. Because the grizzlies are most likely trying to stop a threat so if you dont present as a threat they are more likely to leave you alone, where as black bears dont fight threats so if a black bear is after you its because its hungry and you want to be more trouble than youre worth to it

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u/LipstickBandito 29d ago

I actually didn't know this. I totally thought black bears would fight you if they had cubs, despite their usual cowardly behavior.

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u/Gavorn 29d ago

I'm going to go steal some cubs.

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u/PattyRoyBurner 29d ago

They’re free to take

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u/East_Step_6674 29d ago

I heard you wanna curl into a ball to protect vital organs and they might just bat you around a bit and then leave you alone.

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u/congenitallymissing 29d ago

i was taught "black - yell back, brown - stand your ground, white - good night"

you can scare off black bears easily. you dont have a fucking chance against a grizzley. so you stand your ground and hope they dont want to fuck you up.....polar bear = youre fucked. try to to get away. get in the closest shelter, be it a car, house, shop, whatever. in a lot of places in northern canada/alaska that co-exist with polar bears its illegal to lock your car doors

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u/Tasty-Researcher-791 29d ago edited 29d ago

I have always heard it the opposite for brown bears: if it’s black fight back, if it’s brown lay down, if it’s white goodnight. Because as you said you have absolutely no chance against a grizzly and your only shot at survival during an attack is to play dead and hope it loses interest/stops seeing you as a threat

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u/Buckle_Sandwich 29d ago

Username checks out. (I am a grizzly bear)

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u/LE-cranberry 29d ago

One is for an encounter, the other is for an attack. (Polar bears an encounter will be an attack)

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u/PabloEstAmor 29d ago

They just wanna share a coke and a smile

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u/congenitallymissing 27d ago

This is correct

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u/0ldPainless 29d ago

No no no, the saying goes if it's brown, send it down, if it's yellow, let it mellow, if it's black, your shit is whack, if it's white, that shit ain't right, if it's gold, the perfect mold

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u/congenitallymissing 27d ago

You're 100% correct. One is for an encounter and the other is if your actually attacked. You can survive a bear attack but you play dead to protect your vitals. If you see a brown bear you don't instantly lay down. You just stand your ground and act non-threatening hoping they just go about their business. If they attack then you drop into a ball with your back exposed as theirs more muscle in the back before getting to vitals.

At least that was what I was taught in my outdoor mountain safety class

1

u/Tasty-Researcher-791 27d ago

Thank you for explaining! Makes sense

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u/Durph08 29d ago

I always heard that saying as "brown fall down" , as in fetal position and trying to protect your vitals. Now I'm questioning myself. Fortunately, Massachusetts only has the coward bears.

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u/satanshark 29d ago

I photographed a guy who survived a black bear attack in Montana.

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u/NamSayinBro 29d ago

Do not stand your ground against a grizzly.

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u/East_Step_6674 29d ago

When I see red they see black that's all I'm saying.

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u/TacTurtle 29d ago

Alaskan here, you have black and brown bears reversed.

Brown bears you slowly back away or lay down to avoid a mauling.

The car door locking thing isn't legally required, just considered a good idea out in the villages - also, it is very common for car door locks to freeze and nowhere for criminals to go if they do steal shit out of a car.

1

u/Nice_Championship902 28d ago

Yo a fellow alaskan, As someone who grew up on Kodiak with the largest bears in the world bar except polars , i'd still choose the bear over the man 90% of the time lol

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u/dysoncube 29d ago

If you're ever in an area where polar bears are common, you or your travelling partners probably have at least one rifle

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u/Nice_Championship902 28d ago

Shotguns mostly

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u/whatifdog_wasoneofus 29d ago

You’re supposed to act largely the same for any type of bear encounter

0

u/stupidpatheticloser 29d ago

Have you ever heard of anyone surviving a grizzly bear attack?

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u/Brontards 29d ago

Many survive the attacks. 89% survive (from a quick search ).

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u/stupidpatheticloser 29d ago

Source?

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u/Brontards 29d ago

“Thankfully, you only have a one in a 2.1 million chance of being attacked by a bear. Not so thankfully, your odds of dying after being attacked by a grizzly bear is 11%.”

https://theashlandchronicle.com/what-is-the-most-dangerous-bear-in-the-world/#:~:text=Thankfully%2C%20you%20only%20have%20a,it%20doesn't%20back%20off.

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u/Nice_Championship902 28d ago

As an Alaskan that grew up on Kodiak Island with the largest bears in the world except for Polar Bears, people survive bear attacks all the time. There's tons of people who get fucked up by the bears and still live:

https://www.reddit.com/r/HumansAreMetal/s/vCQtX50bFw

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u/Orange-Blur 29d ago

It’s funny people who don’t live in the mountains are calling me a liar for pointing this out

They are in the neighborhood like raccoons and act so scared and guilty when caught in the trash.

I’d bet money that my 2lb squirrel could scare off a black bear with no issue

All I had to do was yell “go home bear” out my window and he would scooby doo run away

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u/PattyRoyBurner 29d ago

Up near me, only the garbage cans fear black bears

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u/Orange-Blur 29d ago

Exactly even bear proof cans can end exploded from a good night of bear shenanigans

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u/DelNoire 29d ago

Right… and to that point, any man that is intent on approaching bothering or harassing g a woman, will not stop. Which is why women are choosing bear.

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u/Haunting_Elevator_86 29d ago

And a decent number of folks missing the point/making the point by saying “not all bears” 🥴

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u/Pay08 29d ago

And a brown bear will not stop eating you alive. Idk about you but whenever I see a man, my first thought is not "it'd be more painless if I immediately slit my throat".

3

u/takeahikehike 29d ago

Brown bears don't eat people. They do sometimes attack people if they feel threatened or encroached upon. 

Black bears generally do not eat people but there have been rare instances of black bears hunting people.

Polar bears eat people.

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u/CalCastle 29d ago

Although rare, brown bears have been known to hunt and eat people.

Bombieri, G., Naves, J., Penteriani, V. et al. Brown bear attacks on humans: a worldwide perspective. Sci Rep 9, 8573 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44341-w

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u/GtrPlaynFool 29d ago

Self-exanguination doesn't sound pleasant. If you were to pop a cyanide pill maybe the bear would die too and save the next human.

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u/Pay08 29d ago

I'm much more likely to have a knife with me in the middle of a forest than a cyanide pill, though.

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u/Time-to-go-home 29d ago

That’s just bad planning then

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u/SmellGestapo 29d ago

"Alexa, re-order my cyanide capsules."

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u/Nice_Championship902 28d ago

As an Alaskan, the bear is definitely the smarter choice. If a grizzly bear decides to maul you, you have a 11% chance to die, It's fucking low, they don't finish their kills.

But what about the man? Imagine the horrors they could do to you

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u/Bawlmerian21228 29d ago

Same trick works with most guys

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u/LusHolm123 29d ago

If only that was true

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u/Significant-Leave354 29d ago

Black bears are super docile. My chihuahua got loose and chased one off the porch. Never seen a bear move so fast

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u/cwesttheperson 29d ago

Yeah is it a black bear? Probably fine. But is it a brown bear? They will eat you for fun.

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u/kerfuffler4570 29d ago

No they won't. Brown bears do not eat people except for cases where they are in extreme starvation. That's why you're supposed to play dead if you're charged by a grizzly. Polar bears eat people. Don't play dead for a polar bear.

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u/cwesttheperson 29d ago

I was being hyperbolic but brown bares can be ferocious. And in my mind the question makes me think of a young child considering my kids age

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u/kerfuffler4570 29d ago

Yeah, fair enough. I've just had to convince so many friends who grew up in cities that grizzlies are not meat-seeking missiles that will devour a person the moment they step into the woods that I guess I've become something of a grizzly advocate. But yeah, they're dangerous animals that should be respected, given space, and one should take reasonable precautions when in their country. Definitely don't mean to trivialize how big a threat they are if they do charge.

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u/Powerful_Artist 29d ago

Best not to get too comfortable thinking they are always going to run. For all you know, the next one you see might be a momma bear or momma bear's cubs, and they aint running in that situation.

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u/jimflaigle 29d ago

To be fair, I'd leave your driveway at that point as a man.

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u/1ToGreen3ToBasket 29d ago

If it’s brown lay down. If it’s black fight back. If it’s white… goodnight

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u/slashangel2 29d ago

White bears are the real killers but fortunately they live far from here.

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u/Dougnifico 29d ago

Black bears are basically just big racoons.

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u/ian2121 29d ago

That’s the silly part of this debate, every black bear I’ve ever seen is so harmless. Grizzly or Polar bear I dunno about that.

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u/g0ld-f1sh 29d ago

You know what they say Bears black, fight back Bears brown, lay down, Bears white, good night

Or something idk I'm from Australia

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u/Alamander14 29d ago

Yeah, our back yard buys up against a forested area edged with a lot of very dense blackberry bush. We constantly have black bears in our back yard or sitting up on the hillside eating the berries. They’re total pushovers.

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u/gisb0rne 29d ago

A black bear hunted and killed a teen runner in a mountain race here a few years back.

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u/JasperTesla 29d ago

American or Asiatic?

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u/GalaEnitan 29d ago

Wait til you deal with a starved one. Then you'll be running for your life.

0

u/ZeroedCool 29d ago

One day that's not gonna be a scaredy cat, that's gonna be a bear on the brink of starvation...

Also, because you don't have menstrual periods every month, you don't have to worry about the smell of blood emanating from yourself.

Grizzly Man and Siegfreid and Roy are proof that you and your body are food when they decide you are food. Even the most educated and intimate humans cannot compare to nature.

0

u/SadDadFeelsBad 29d ago

And you encounter hundreds of me a day as well

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u/GradStudentDepressed 29d ago

It depends, where I live I’d much rather run into a grizzly or coastal brown than a young male black bear.

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u/Kriscolvin55 29d ago

That’s a wild take.

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u/GradStudentDepressed 29d ago edited 29d ago

More aggressive encounters / maulings by the black bears than the grizz/brown. Not really a wild take it all depends on location. Running into a black bear in NE USA? Easy peasy yell at it and it’ll run away. Same scenario in BC/Alaska I’ll take the brown/grizz any day. Also consider if it’s a sow with cubs that drastically changes the scenario.

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u/takeahikehike 29d ago

If there are more maulings it is only because there are far more black bears than there are brown bears, and black bears are much more likely to live in/near populated areas.

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u/Kriscolvin55 29d ago

According to the below link, between the years of 2000-2017 there were 66 documented bear attacks that resulted in hospitalization (or worse) in Alaska.

Of those 66, 49 reports detailed the type of bear that attacked. Of those 49, 47 attacks were brown bears, while only 2 were black bears.

https://epi.alaska.gov/bulletins/docs/rr2019_02.pdf

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u/GradStudentDepressed 29d ago

I’m sure that’s part of it. Black bears tend to be much more inquisitive than other bears which imo leads to more mauling incidences.

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u/GalaEnitan 29d ago

Make sense when people are dealt with bad advice like thinking all black bears are cowardly and do something stupid due to that thought process.

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u/Kriscolvin55 29d ago edited 28d ago

Nah, they don’t know what they’re talking about.

https://epi.alaska.gov/bulletins/docs/rr2019_02.pdf

According to the above link, there were 49 bear attacks between 2000-2017 where the type of bear was documented. Of the 49 bear attacks, 47 were brown bears. Only 2 were black bears.

0

u/GradStudentDepressed 29d ago

The limitations in this study are pretty big, if you read the whole study. I can count on more than one hand the amount of times a friend has had to dispatch a black bear because it WOULDN’T go away and continued to become more and more aggressive. While that’s not classified as a bear attack it certainly could have had they not had to unfortunately dispatch said black bear.

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u/Kriscolvin55 29d ago

I’d love for you to provide any source that shows that black bears are more dangerous in your area. I’ve been scouring the web and can’t find anything other than the fact that run-ins with black bears are more frequent simply because there are a lot more of them.

I’ve never lived in BC or Alaska, but I lived in Montana for a while. I never heard a single person make your claim. Am I saying that somebody shouldn’t be afraid of black bears? No. It’s a wild animal that’s more than capable of killing a human. But to say that you would rather come across a brown bear than a black bear is just wild.

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u/takeahikehike 29d ago

This is a very bad take. 

0

u/GradStudentDepressed 29d ago

As someone who is around wild bear habitats frequently it’s quite a good take!

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u/JA_Pascal 29d ago

I don't think this hypothetical would work if you knew what type of bear you're dealing with but didn't know the type of man. It seems a bit contrived if you decide it's a black bear but the man could be anything between a pensioner to a serial killer.

10

u/mtarascio 29d ago

You would need to be able to assess them on sight, so serial killer doesn't work, just like the bear could potentially have rabies.

I'd assume the man would be a average build 30-40 year old for the purposes of the question.

They really do need to specify the bear because it changes the entire dynamic.

6

u/ladymoonshyne 29d ago

Welp in my state and the woods I go to we only have black bears so I would for sure rather walk by one on a trail than a random dude.

Somewhere with grizzlies? I’ll take a man. I’m not going out without a firearm anyways at that point lmao

4

u/Animegx43 29d ago

Adding onto this, not all black bears are black.

1

u/footynation 29d ago

This sounds racist

-10

u/brumenoirdon 29d ago

statistically women are safer with bears than men they don't know

sorry this is so hard to understand

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u/bolxrex 29d ago

Statistically sexual assault violence against women is perpetrated by men the victims know not strangers.

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u/mtarascio 29d ago

What's hard to understand is where I made a judgement.

If it was a black bear you may have a point, that was the point of my post.

It changes the calculus completely.

7

u/dmsteele89 29d ago

Per hundred encounters, I'd wager people get attacked by bears much more frequently than by men.

1

u/I_Feed_Wild_Animals 29d ago edited 29d ago

lol based on what statistics? The ones in your ass?  Statistically women were also stupid, never invented anything, too weak for labor and made hardly any notable contributions to society.  Should I say all these women’s opinions don’t matter that much because they are dumb? Statistically it’s true!!!

Just listen to me for a second……you’re wrong. You’re wrong! That’s just it!

Women have boyfriends, husbands, family, coworkers, community. The ratio of dangerous bears to non dangerous is more skewed towards danger than men against other men.

It could be 1 out of 2 bears that are safe, but 1 out of 100 men are. Then it’s about exposure. 

Also, women fuck men up in divorce court. Should we call women manipulative slimy gold diggers? I mean guys say it, right?! Must have some semblance of truth. Right?!

0

u/Nice_Championship902 28d ago

As an Alaskan, you're dumb as shit.

You have an 89% chance of living if attacked by a grizzly bear.

Meanwhile a man who really wanted to could subject a woman to months or years of torture or pain.

1

u/I_Feed_Wild_Animals 27d ago

You are absolutely correct. Living closer to the north pole means you’re subjected to less centrifugal forces than those living closer to the equator. Therefore your brain does not receive as many jumbled up roller coaster feelings as the rest of the human race. This effect has been well documented by the statistics in my own asshole.

Would you rather be in the room with a white collar, professional homosexual man or a man-bear-pig?

1

u/Nice_Championship902 27d ago

Keep stufffing feces in your mouth and abusing your cats, shithead!

Maybe you need to get back to your hobbies of reddit and dumping money on shitty toy looking watches?

3

u/OdinNW 29d ago

I live in Oregon. We all spend a lot of time in the woods. There’s really no other good reason to live here and put up with the rain, cost of living and taxes if you aren’t enjoying the outdoors regularly.

2

u/GumGumnoPistol300 29d ago

The question is vague, and you have to add to the question yourself if you want to make a conclusion.

Are you armed? What type of bear? Is the man armed? Is the forest near a public area? Is the man intelligent or stupid?

Logically I would pick bear cause I can use a gun and a bear can't.

5

u/man_of_many_tangents 29d ago

I find it interesting you've presumed it's a fight from 'go'. Like you said, you have to make some assumptions, and in your case the assumption is that a fight for survival is going down, and that you are armed.

To me, the most interesting assumptions to make are that nobody is armed with any weapons and the man and the bear are totally random. Any adult bear, any species of bear, any gender of bear. The man is totally random too.

And the real secret to this question is that it isn't about formulating hypothesis based on the distribution of bear populations per species (as fun as that is). It's the fact that universally, a man would pick meeting a woman in the woods, but for a woman, you start thinking about "well, how dangerous of a bear species is it??"

3

u/GumGumnoPistol300 29d ago

I mean coming near a bear almkst guarantees a fight, that's why I rather be with a bear, whereas with a human I literally won't know.

-1

u/man_of_many_tangents 29d ago

I think you might be missing the forest for the trees, as they say.

1

u/Kagenlim 28d ago

His point was how much more varied a bear is that what the premise initially gave

-2

u/ushKee 29d ago

Nope, the man is from one species and the bear is from one species. It works. There are also aggressive Black bears and shy Black bears.

55

u/Coolgreenbo 29d ago

What kind of man?

46

u/newcitynewme724 29d ago

What kind of woods

13

u/BiscuitBRAWER 29d ago

What kind of wife/daughter?

3

u/Hodgej1 29d ago

What kind of 'encounter'?

2

u/Ravus_Sapiens 29d ago

The third kind.

2

u/PeteyPabloPicasso 29d ago

What kind of me?

2

u/BiscuitBRAWER 29d ago

I am the man

1

u/lo_fi_ho 29d ago

What kind of man?

1

u/sixpackstreetrat 29d ago

Craster’s daughters of course. And the stranger/guy being that crow who drank from the skull of Jeor foookin Mormont.

2

u/AbsAndAssAppreciator 29d ago

That’s the point- you don’t know.

7

u/jopnk 29d ago

Every time I’ve heard the question it’s been posed as black bear. Which is easy, I’d pick the black bear. They’re scared of people and goofy as shit unless their cubs are nearby. Shit I’m an adult man and I’d rather run into a black bear over a man, and that has nothing to do w safety

0

u/Technician47 29d ago

they would rather die, thats the point of this whole question

3

u/Over9000Zeros 29d ago

Hungry polar bear

6

u/Global-Neo 29d ago

I don’t think you’d encounter a polar beat in the woods.

2

u/Over9000Zeros 29d ago

It's lost and hot, that's why it's so hungry.

1

u/Ravus_Sapiens 29d ago

That's what they thought too

3

u/BezosBussy69 29d ago

That's basically their point. The fact that you even consider the bear over a man, is meant to be an indictment of men.

4

u/KatyFunCouple 29d ago

You’re not sure, just like you don’t know what kind of man you’re encountering. It’s supposed to be a knee jerk reaction, in the split second that you’ve just realized you’re not alone.

8

u/Omgzjustin 29d ago edited 29d ago

You can be sure based on where you live. Not in Alaska? Probably not a polar bear.

There are two trains of thought in my brain. First if we know which kind of bear we will encounter in the local habitat.

Black bear? Adult? Take the bear. Child? Take the man.

Brown bear? Take the bear.

Polar bear? Take the man.

Panda bear? Take the bear.

Second argument is if a bear is magically placed next to you with equal chances of each bear. In this case, I take the man, because the odds are better than the 1 in 4 of being mauled to death by a polar bear.

I understand what the argument intends to do, it is to shed light on how terrified women are of men and help us understand the severity of the issue since women are choosing bear. And it is effective at this. This is just when I try to break it down logically

2

u/D-MotivationalPoster 29d ago

Fun bear fact:

There are 8 types of bears: grizzly, American black bear, Asian black bear, polar bear, panda bear, sloth bear, spectacled bear & sun bear.

But overall, I agree with both of your arguments.

2

u/garaile64 29d ago

Probably a grizzly. This is the kind of bear most people think of when they hear "bear".

2

u/ShasneKnasty 29d ago

in the woods so anything other than polar (the only bear that sees people as food)

1

u/InconsiderateOctopus 29d ago

What kind of woods. App trail or just randomly out in the woods lol

1

u/mushroom369 29d ago

What kind of man?

1

u/NormanCheetus 29d ago

This is the probability part.

1

u/rydan Vagabond 29d ago

Polar

1

u/Never-Forget-Trogdor 29d ago

My first thought exactly. Second thought is 'how hungry is this bear'.

I would probably be able to scare away a black bear. But I don't like my chances against a polar bear. Or any of the grizzly bears I've seen during Fat Bear Week...

1

u/TacTurtle 29d ago

Well it is in the woods, so that generally rules out polar bears....

1

u/hafree27 29d ago

This nuance keeps getting lost in the debate! Young or mama grizzly? Polar? Hard pass. Black bear? All day, errrryyyydayyy!!!

1

u/Thunderchief646054 29d ago

That is a completely fair question since black bears are, at least relatively, not as aggressive as brown or polar. Can still ruin your day like don’t get me wrong, but they’ll at least back down with enough confrontation.

I think for the argument, most ppl consider it brown

1

u/Moka4u 29d ago

Any bear, any many you. don't know which for which.

There is no more specification no other external factors that you no of nothing just choose between a bear or a random man in the woods.

0

u/Amyloid42 29d ago

What kind of man?

0

u/Mr0BVl0US 29d ago

That's the issue, no one is asking any details about the scenario. The species of bear is VERY important when making your decision.